The indicator has signalled all 10 of the last corrections and
crashes since 1990. The average delay between the signal and the
market high is 5 weeks – but has been as high as 18 weeks. Most of
the time there is a single indicator signal, but occasionally a
double. And the indicator has only ever produced 5 false signals
(some might count it as 6 though).
Posted by frtaylor on 30th of Mar 2015 at 09:13 am
So, it gives false positives but not false negatives. Most would
say that's better than false negatives. Saying, "it only ever
produced five false signals" makes it sound incredible, but there
were only 15 signals total. So 1 in 3 is a false positive. Still
pretty good, especially considering that 2013-14 was anomalous in
terms of market strength.
it's interesting, but they lock it down - also notice that they
restrict your time frame, i.e. you can't go back more than about
2006 even though @SP goes back many years, or try it on $INX even
though it goes back to 1961 it forces the chart to only go back to
about 2006 or so. I suspect that it's lock either because it
didn't work very well before that time frame, or they lock it down
with and then later on offer a paid version that is less
restrictive or something. It also seems to work best on @SP,
the large ES contract, and not so well on other things. Also seems
to work best on the weekly vs the daily
Sort of seems like a classic marketing tool: Show an
interesting indicator, then give a version of it way free - which
generates publicity and traffic - then perhaps sell something later
on as well
if you want a workspace, I can put it here, but otherwise should
be pretty straightforward, just load the ELD, then make a
weekly chart using symbol @SP
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Stock market crash warning signalhas
Posted by EdZ on 29th of Mar 2015 at 07:45 pm
Stock market crash warning signalhas gone off
The indicator has signalled all 10 of the last corrections and crashes since 1990. The average delay between the signal and the market high is 5 weeks – but has been as high as 18 weeks. Most of the time there is a single indicator signal, but occasionally a double. And the indicator has only ever produced 5 false signals (some might count it as 6 though).
So, it gives false positives
Posted by frtaylor on 30th of Mar 2015 at 09:13 am
So, it gives false positives but not false negatives. Most would say that's better than false negatives. Saying, "it only ever produced five false signals" makes it sound incredible, but there were only 15 signals total. So 1 in 3 is a false positive. Still pretty good, especially considering that 2013-14 was anomalous in terms of market strength.
it's interesting, but they lock
Posted by matt on 30th of Mar 2015 at 09:26 am
it's interesting, but they lock it down - also notice that they restrict your time frame, i.e. you can't go back more than about 2006 even though @SP goes back many years, or try it on $INX even though it goes back to 1961 it forces the chart to only go back to about 2006 or so. I suspect that it's lock either because it didn't work very well before that time frame, or they lock it down with and then later on offer a paid version that is less restrictive or something. It also seems to work best on @SP, the large ES contract, and not so well on other things. Also seems to work best on the weekly vs the daily
Sort of seems like a classic marketing tool: Show an interesting indicator, then give a version of it way free - which generates publicity and traffic - then perhaps sell something later on as well
Didn't Art Cashin count about
Posted by a_l_ on 30th of Mar 2015 at 09:22 am
Didn't Art Cashin count about half a dozen false positives in 2013 alone?
are u reffering to hindenberg
Posted by jdaswani on 30th of Mar 2015 at 08:46 am
are u reffering to hindenberg omen? what crash signal do u use?
never mind, I didnt see
Posted by jdaswani on 30th of Mar 2015 at 09:00 am
never mind, I didnt see link attached.
I still don't see the link :(
Posted by maggi3322 on 30th of Mar 2015 at 09:20 am
click on the words "stock
Posted by frtaylor on 30th of Mar 2015 at 11:13 am
click on the words "stock market crash warning signal"
Thanks!
Posted by maggi3322 on 30th of Mar 2015 at 11:20 am
took me a minute too.
Posted by frtaylor on 30th of Mar 2015 at 11:21 am
if you want a workspace,
Posted by matt on 30th of Mar 2015 at 11:15 am
if you want a workspace, I can put it here, but otherwise should be pretty straightforward, just load the ELD, then make a weekly chart using symbol @SP