I posted this last night - looks like the SPY system may short
today at the close as long as we hold up. Again just a couple
things I need to point out:
1. Jobs report tomorrow, so we will likely gap on that, though
lately it seems like the last few SPY signals have occurred just
before jobs data.
2. This trade is simply an exhaustion trade like in the 401K
system I showed over the weekend: Price is a bit extended and
short term it's looking for a reversion to mean pullback. The
system won't hold the trade long, only for a quick trade back below
the 8 SMA, so it's not looking to pick some major top.
-----
from last night...
I just noticed that if the market closes up at all on Thursday,
the SPY Pro system will be taking a short.
It's the exact same exhaustion trade that I discussed on the
weekend where price closes above the 8 day MA for at least 20 bars
in a row along with %R indicator over 90%.
If triggered it would be a short term short trade and would
simply close out on a price back below the 8 MA - like a reversion
to mean or rubber band snapping back
yes, but as I stated, it's a short term trade, the system would
simply close out the trade on a close below the 8 day MA, which you
can follow on your own, it's just a reversion to mean quick trade
only
At this time the short condition is no longer in place, the SPX
needs to rally into the close and close up much stronger for this
condition to come back.
Honestly the best thing to happen would be for the market to gap
up tomorrow an hold, that would lower risk trade.
If the market closed here, the odds are about 85% for a winning
trade, to me I want higher odds in the 90's, in order to get that
we need higher prices
Posted by pimacanyon on 6th of Mar 2014 at 12:57 pm
Hi Matt,
Thanks for the heads up.
Question: I thought the system takes only long trades when price
is above 200 Daily SMA (or some other criteria you have to
determine the long term trend is up). So that
assumption on my part is incorrect?
Hello - nope I never said never, I always said 'MOST' of the
trades above the 200 day MA will be longs, while most of the trades
below the 200 MA will be shorts, not all of them, go and look at
the trade history, you can find plenty of examples, it's always
been that way
also this was even discussed in the old FAQ,
here's a link:
I've attached some images showing shorts above the 200 MA and
longs below the 200 MA
Posted by pimacanyon on 6th of Mar 2014 at 01:28 pm
Thanks! That helps, gives us some expectation of how the
trade is likely to play out. May not be a major top, but it's
likely price will pull back to below the 8 SMA over the next few
days.
Note: we could see a 'throw over' rally on Friday morning a/k/a/
Fed pumping, and then watch the market start to pull back once we
hit some meaningful overhead resistance. Then the rubber band will
really be stretched, won't it boyz? HW1nyc
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Important - SPY Pro system
Posted by matt on 6th of Mar 2014 at 12:43 am
I posted this last night - looks like the SPY system may short today at the close as long as we hold up. Again just a couple things I need to point out:
1. Jobs report tomorrow, so we will likely gap on that, though lately it seems like the last few SPY signals have occurred just before jobs data.
2. This trade is simply an exhaustion trade like in the 401K system I showed over the weekend: Price is a bit extended and short term it's looking for a reversion to mean pullback. The system won't hold the trade long, only for a quick trade back below the 8 SMA, so it's not looking to pick some major top.
-----
from last night...
I just noticed that if the market closes up at all on Thursday, the SPY Pro system will be taking a short.
It's the exact same exhaustion trade that I discussed on the weekend where price closes above the 8 day MA for at least 20 bars in a row along with %R indicator over 90%.
If triggered it would be a short term short trade and would simply close out on a price back below the 8 MA - like a reversion to mean or rubber band snapping back
Will you give notice for
Posted by tleahy on 6th of Mar 2014 at 04:28 pm
Will you give notice for exit?
yes, but as I stated,
Posted by matt on 6th of Mar 2014 at 04:30 pm
yes, but as I stated, it's a short term trade, the system would simply close out the trade on a close below the 8 day MA, which you can follow on your own, it's just a reversion to mean quick trade only
At this time the short
Posted by matt on 6th of Mar 2014 at 02:25 pm
At this time the short condition is no longer in place, the SPX needs to rally into the close and close up much stronger for this condition to come back.
Honestly the best thing to happen would be for the market to gap up tomorrow an hold, that would lower risk trade.
If the market closed here, the odds are about 85% for a winning trade, to me I want higher odds in the 90's, in order to get that we need higher prices
Is the market high enough
Posted by payday on 6th of Mar 2014 at 03:42 pm
Is the market high enough now for the short?
wait until the close then
Posted by matt on 6th of Mar 2014 at 03:44 pm
wait until the close then we'll know, just sent email out, too close to call
Title: pump and dump tomorrow
Posted by hweinstein4 on 6th of Mar 2014 at 02:43 pm
pump and dump. tomorrow morning, baby! HW1nyc
SPY Pro System -- possible short
Posted by pimacanyon on 6th of Mar 2014 at 12:57 pm
Hi Matt,
Thanks for the heads up.
Question: I thought the system takes only long trades when price is above 200 Daily SMA (or some other criteria you have to determine the long term trend is up). So that assumption on my part is incorrect?
Thanks!
Hello - nope I never
Posted by matt on 6th of Mar 2014 at 01:05 pm
Hello - nope I never said never, I always said 'MOST' of the trades above the 200 day MA will be longs, while most of the trades below the 200 MA will be shorts, not all of them, go and look at the trade history, you can find plenty of examples, it's always been that way
also this was even discussed in the old FAQ, here's a link:
I've attached some images showing shorts above the 200 MA and longs below the 200 MA
guys- here's a quick video
Posted by matt on 6th of Mar 2014 at 01:15 pm
guys- here's a quick video I made showing this trade and past examples
CLICK HERE to watch the video
SPY Pro short trades - video
Posted by pimacanyon on 6th of Mar 2014 at 01:28 pm
Thanks! That helps, gives us some expectation of how the trade is likely to play out. May not be a major top, but it's likely price will pull back to below the 8 SMA over the next few days.
and remember we have that
Posted by matt on 6th of Mar 2014 at 02:18 pm
and remember we have that damn jobs report tomorrow, I hate when trades are just before big news like that.
Also the system may not take a short today if we dont' close up stronger than this, right now for example we are not up enough, we were earlier
Matt: I had the same
Posted by tad51 on 6th of Mar 2014 at 01:02 pm
Matt:
I had the same assumption. Is this an exception to that rule?
SPY Pro system will be taking a short
Posted by tradexguy on 6th of Mar 2014 at 10:58 am
Matt,
Question %R indicator over 90%of which indicator?
Love the heads up
Posted by pjwhiteley on 6th of Mar 2014 at 10:29 am
Thank you for the heads up. Helps me to better plan my day.
Title: LOVE the sage
Posted by hweinstein4 on 6th of Mar 2014 at 10:36 am
LOVE the sage advice of the SPY early warning system HW1nyc
Title: throwover rally Note: we
Posted by hweinstein4 on 6th of Mar 2014 at 07:14 am
Note: we could see a 'throw over' rally on Friday morning a/k/a/ Fed pumping, and then watch the market start to pull back once we hit some meaningful overhead resistance. Then the rubber band will really be stretched, won't it boyz? HW1nyc