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I've written an indicator in TOS that prints a down arrow when you get 20 closes above the 8 SMA.  (Number of closes and the period on the moving average are both user definable).  I have a second indicator to do the same thing on the downside, that is, print an up arrow when you get 20 closes below the 8.

If anyone wants a copy, PM me.

I stand corrected...

Bogle rebalancing

Posted by pimacanyon on 10th of Mar 2014 at 07:06 pm

didn't know that about Bogle, that he suggests NOT rebalancing.  Good articles, thanks for the links!

bogle and rebalancing

Simple Emerging Markets Strategy

Posted by pimacanyon on 10th of Mar 2014 at 07:03 pm

nope, have not back tested it, it's not a strategy I use (I'm too old!), but if I were younger and planned to use that strategy, then I would certainly back test before using it.

Bogle

Simple Emerging Markets Strategy

Posted by pimacanyon on 10th of Mar 2014 at 04:05 pm

Bogle may have said that, but that's in the context of his strategy of rebalancing.  Rebalancing the portfolio on some regular basis (mothly, quarterly, yearly) is what makes his strategy of buy and hold work.  It's really not buy and hold because of the rebalancing.  Every time you rebalance, you're buying low and selling high.  Over the long term, you end up with a pretty good return for essentially no effort, no charting, no trying to pick tops and bottoms.

They claim this strategy is not market timing.  That's true, but the rebalancing gives you the advantage of buying low and selling high, which in a sense is a kind of market timing.

What rebalancing is: You decide what percentage of your assets you want in stock, what percentage in bonds, what percentage in metals or commodities.  Most go with just stocks and bonds.  Say you decide for you age and risk tolerance you'll do 50/50 and you'll rebalance every month.  At the end of each month if stocks have gone up, you sell enough to move into your bond etf so that you're back to 50/50.  So you're selling high (stocks) and buying low (bonds).  if stocks tank one month, then when you rebalance, you sell enough bond etf and buy enough stock etf with the proceeds to get back to 50/50.  So you're buying stocks at a discount that month. It's a brilliant strategy in its simplicity!

understandable.  the word "short" seems to have been dropped from the vocabulary of traders and investors.

SPY Pro short trades - video

Important - SPY Pro system

Posted by pimacanyon on 6th of Mar 2014 at 01:28 pm

Thanks!  That helps, gives us some expectation of how the trade is likely to play out.  May not be a major top, but it's likely price will pull back to below the 8 SMA over the next few days.

Hi Matt,

Thanks for the heads up.

Question: I thought the system takes only long trades when price is above 200 Daily SMA (or some other criteria you have to determine the long term trend is up).  So that  assumption on my part is incorrect?

Thanks!

natty crashy

Natgas getting hit from extreme overbought 

Posted by pimacanyon on 24th of Feb 2014 at 01:17 pm

also the Ukraine mess getting resolved AND the very warm winter everywhere but US.

falling wedge

SPX 5

Posted by pimacanyon on 13th of Dec 2013 at 03:19 pm

the 15 min chart had a falling wedge prior to the first low it put in at 12:15 PM Eastern Time on 12/12/13

symm break--where's the higher low?

SPX 5

Posted by pimacanyon on 13th of Dec 2013 at 02:43 pm

Today's low was a double bottom, not a higher low.  Now we have a triple bottom (maybe).

We DID have a reversal pattern on the same timeframe as the symm break, right?  Falling wedge.  If we just stick to that timeframe, we should see a reversal on that timeframe, right?  Can we not apply the tutorial principles on that timeframe?

Maybe it will come, depends on whether the triple bottom holds.  Triple bottoms do occur, but they are not that common, so odds are we'll see a break to the downside.

downtrend from the 9th to the 12th had 3 counter-trend moves prior to the low on the 12.  The move up on the 12th from that low clearly broke symmetry.  So that tells us that that downtrend has ended, right?  And now we should look for a higher low, right?

The first higher low was actually a double bottom.  We now have what's very close to a triple bottom (if it holds) and possibly a higher low.

If it breaks lower, then the downtrend has NOT ended, so what happened to the symmetry break?

neckline broken

SPY systems

Posted by pimacanyon on 11th of Dec 2013 at 03:56 pm

It will be scary to take a long here as SPX is trading right around the neckline of the H&S top.  A break below has a target of around 1745.

 

On the other hand, a system is a system.  It doesn't work if you don't take all the trades.

SPY Pro

SPY systems

Posted by pimacanyon on 11th of Dec 2013 at 12:24 pm

Thanks for the heads up, Matt!

shanghai pollution

Shanghai pollution

Posted by pimacanyon on 6th of Dec 2013 at 02:16 pm

Sorry, I did not intend to put words in your mouth, was just asking a question.  But because this is not trading related, I sent you a PM if you want to discuss further.  Good weekend to you.

shanghai and EPA

Shanghai pollution

Posted by pimacanyon on 6th of Dec 2013 at 01:31 pm

Are you serious?  We can go outside most days in our largest cities and breathe relatively clean air.  You'd do away with the EPA and smog controls on cars and trucks, so we could enjoy breathing air like the Chinese do in Shanghai?

FedSpeak

Fed Speak

Posted by pimacanyon on 5th of Dec 2013 at 03:23 pm

serious risk = more QE!

Matt,

I have the RSI 2 reading below 10, both yesterday and today. 

You said that this system did not trigger yesterday or today.  What am I missing?

To be clear, I would much rather have an official notification that I know I can take a position on than to have one (before the close) that might might have to reverse.  Today I bought based on your first email and now I will have to sell that position.    So I vote for simplicity:  Send out the notifications ONLY after the close.  That way all of us will know that it's official. (The system cannot change its mind after the close!)

Hi Matt,

I'd suggest that you send an official notification about the SPY Pro system after the close.  If you want to warn us that the system MAY take a long at the close, that's great, but you would then follow up with another email after the close to confirm that it took a long position or to let us know that it did NOT take a position.

To keep things simple from your side, I have no problem with ONLY ONE official notification, which of course will have to be AFTER the close.   As you've noted, we can trade SPY during After Hours trading until 8PM Eastern Time.

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