I've read many articles about how this summer's pullback will
compare to the summer of 2010 and 2011. I thought I would
graph a comparison to see if there are any similarities so
far. This is a year-over-year graph of the S&P in
Excel. I adjusted 2010 and 2011 numbers up so that all three
years have nearly the same high ( 3 pts difference), i.e., all
falling from the same point. This causes them to lay one on
top of the other in the same range for easier
comparison.
Of course we already knew this from looking at the index charts
from the last few years, but it's nice to see the overlaid in a
chart.
Again lot's of things repeating and factors in confluence: Sell
in May and Go Away, European debt crisis all hitting at the same
time, and all occurring after big market rallies.
Currently the market is a time bomb with all the news that could
be released at any time: what I mean by time bomb is that the
market is now subject to huge volatility swings and huge morning
gaps either to the upside or the down side. Any day you could
wake up and see ES futures trading up 20 - 30 points or down 20 -
30 points. If things worsen and nothing is down, the market
will continue to melt, however if Germany gives in and they issue
Euro Bonds, you could see the S&P 500 rally 50 - 100 points in
no time.
If you held a gun to my head and asked me to guess, I wouldn't
be surprised to see a similar action to the couple years i.e. a
very choppy summer with a bounce coming soon however the first
bounce will be sold and the market will be choppy,
and then some kind of end of year rally. I don't have a lot
of hope for 2013 however as I think the market is due for another
cyclical bear market inside this long term secular bear market
which began in 2000, this assumes of course that the current
cyclical bull from Mar 2009 is not yet complete and the cyclical
bear has already started. Secular Bear markets historically
last on average about 16 - 18 years, we are only 12 years into this
current secular bear market, therefore we still have some years
left.
S&P Graph 2012 Overlaid on 2011 & 2010
Posted by arkgirl on 2nd of Jun 2012 at 12:31 pm
I've read many articles about how this summer's pullback will compare to the summer of 2010 and 2011. I thought I would graph a comparison to see if there are any similarities so far. This is a year-over-year graph of the S&P in Excel. I adjusted 2010 and 2011 numbers up so that all three years have nearly the same high ( 3 pts difference), i.e., all falling from the same point. This causes them to lay one on top of the other in the same range for easier comparison.
Best to all.
arkgirl - thanks for the
Posted by matt on 3rd of Jun 2012 at 02:49 pm
arkgirl - thanks for the hard work
Of course we already knew this from looking at the index charts from the last few years, but it's nice to see the overlaid in a chart.
Again lot's of things repeating and factors in confluence: Sell in May and Go Away, European debt crisis all hitting at the same time, and all occurring after big market rallies.
Currently the market is a time bomb with all the news that could be released at any time: what I mean by time bomb is that the market is now subject to huge volatility swings and huge morning gaps either to the upside or the down side. Any day you could wake up and see ES futures trading up 20 - 30 points or down 20 - 30 points. If things worsen and nothing is down, the market will continue to melt, however if Germany gives in and they issue Euro Bonds, you could see the S&P 500 rally 50 - 100 points in no time.
If you held a gun to my head and asked me to guess, I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar action to the couple years i.e. a very choppy summer with a bounce coming soon however the first bounce will be sold and the market will be choppy, and then some kind of end of year rally. I don't have a lot of hope for 2013 however as I think the market is due for another cyclical bear market inside this long term secular bear market which began in 2000, this assumes of course that the current cyclical bull from Mar 2009 is not yet complete and the cyclical bear has already started. Secular Bear markets historically last on average about 16 - 18 years, we are only 12 years into this current secular bear market, therefore we still have some years left.
interesting chart Arkgirl
Posted by sschulman on 3rd of Jun 2012 at 02:36 pm
Interesting. In effect you've created a sort of 3-year seasonality chart. Thanks Arkgirl.
Can it be...
Posted by brophy on 3rd of Jun 2012 at 11:54 am
that easy?