Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Apr 2012 at 07:42 am
Some may find this interesting: the term is "reversion to the
mean," not "revision to the mean." Perhaps it's not that
important, but my father (retired) was an English prof, so
my antennae always go up when I see or hear misstated
words and phrases! Like "one in the same," for "one and the
same," or "for all intensive purposes," instead of "for all intents
and purposes." Interestingly, the phrase in question is
different in finance than in statistics, where the term is
"regression to the mean."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_reversion_(finance)
Why bother? Here's an apropos excerpt from the Web site of
an English prof at WSU, in his FAQ section about English usage:
But isn't one person's mistake another's standard usage?
Often enough, but if your standard usage causes other people to
consider
you stupid or ignorant, you may want to consider changing it. You
have
the right to express yourself in any manner you please, but if you
wish
to communicate effectively you should use nonstandard English only
when
you intend to, rather than fall into it because you don't know any
better.
skyfish- Currently gold is only about 3.2% below the 200 day MA.
Here's the Stockchart.com chart.
However I have an indicator in Tradestation that my programmer
made for me, which plots how far away the 200 day or whatever MA
you set is away from the instrument you are plotting.
Here's three Tradestation Charts, the first one is GLD, notice
that it's -3.36% Below the 200 day MA, so not much.
The second one is the HUI, notice that it's -19.7% below the 200
day MA.
The third TS chart shows an expanded chart of the HUI, in 2008
the HUI got -62% below the 200 day MA, so we are a long way from
that.
The current -19.7% is similar what occurred in the HUI back in
2004 and 2005, each of those corrections saw the HUI fall to about
20 - 22% below the 200 day MA. Going much below those
2004/2005 percentages, then I would start to worry, but for now if
we discount 2008, the HUI is statistically very oversold
with respect to the last 12 years!
Now HUI is extremely oversold, by your experience, is it easy to
get a buy signal for your Renko system? From my obversation, HUI
just can not get any power to reverse. We may be still far from
bottom. What do you think?
My post below already contains two charts of the HUI. As
far as XAU, I would stick with either the GDX, HUI, or $GDM indexes
since they contain a lot more components than XAU.
As far as the GDX Renko chart, yes one concern is that if it
gets too low in price that the Renko box size will need to be
adjusted in order to account for the new price range. However
I think it's still OK for now because the statistics for the system
go back to April 2010 and GDX is now basically back to those
prices.
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Revision to the mean
Posted by skyfish on 24th of Apr 2012 at 06:40 pm
Matt
Could you show your long term graph of % away the 200ma for gold again? And also one for HUI?
Some may find this interesting:
Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Apr 2012 at 07:42 am
Some may find this interesting: the term is "reversion to the mean," not "revision to the mean." Perhaps it's not that important, but my father (retired) was an English prof, so my antennae always go up when I see or hear misstated words and phrases! Like "one in the same," for "one and the same," or "for all intensive purposes," instead of "for all intents and purposes." Interestingly, the phrase in question is different in finance than in statistics, where the term is "regression to the mean." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_reversion_(finance)
Why bother? Here's an apropos excerpt from the Web site of an English prof at WSU, in his FAQ section about English usage:
FWIW - That had bothered
Posted by sonofrebel on 25th of Apr 2012 at 08:59 am
FWIW - That had bothered me too - lol
I love "ex cetera"
Posted by lessarda on 25th of Apr 2012 at 09:25 am
i used to be a "cetera"
Posted by morgan8 on 25th of Apr 2012 at 10:22 am
but am now just a pedant
my current favourite is "all goes well" often used by ex footballers turned commentators, when they mean "augers well"
How about the abuse of 'literally' & 'figuratively'?
Posted by lessarda on 25th of Apr 2012 at 10:53 am
Rob Lowe's character on Parks&Rec does a great parody of that.
skyfish - Currently gold is only
Posted by matt on 24th of Apr 2012 at 07:00 pm
skyfish - Currently gold is only about 3.2% below the 200 day MA. Here's the Stockchart.com chart.
However I have an indicator in Tradestation that my programmer made for me, which plots how far away the 200 day or whatever MA you set is away from the instrument you are plotting.
Here's three Tradestation Charts, the first one is GLD, notice that it's -3.36% Below the 200 day MA, so not much.
The second one is the HUI, notice that it's -19.7% below the 200 day MA.
The third TS chart shows an expanded chart of the HUI, in 2008 the HUI got -62% below the 200 day MA, so we are a long way from that.
The current -19.7% is similar what occurred in the HUI back in 2004 and 2005, each of those corrections saw the HUI fall to about 20 - 22% below the 200 day MA. Going much below those 2004/2005 percentages, then I would start to worry, but for now if we discount 2008, the HUI is statistically very oversold with respect to the last 12 years!
I hope this helps
Can you get a similar
Posted by gyzhao on 24th of Apr 2012 at 08:41 pm
Can you get a similar chart for HUI or XAU.
Now HUI is extremely oversold, by your experience, is it easy to get a buy signal for your Renko system? From my obversation, HUI just can not get any power to reverse. We may be still far from bottom. What do you think?
Regards,
gyzhao
My post below already contains
Posted by matt on 24th of Apr 2012 at 11:10 pm
My post below already contains two charts of the HUI. As far as XAU, I would stick with either the GDX, HUI, or $GDM indexes since they contain a lot more components than XAU.
As far as the GDX Renko chart, yes one concern is that if it gets too low in price that the Renko box size will need to be adjusted in order to account for the new price range. However I think it's still OK for now because the statistics for the system go back to April 2010 and GDX is now basically back to those prices.