The SPY Swing System
DID NOTtake a trade today. The range changed
again in the very last few seconds of the market and the system DID
NOT execute a trade. We did not have time to send the alert
prior to the close and since the system does not normally
execute a change that late we took a few minutes to verify that the
change was correct and that there was truly no trade.
We realize that many of you may have taken a trade on the SPY
due to the last email sent. It so happens that the SPY is
trading at the same price (actually right now higher) in the
aftermarket and the SPY ETF does trade decent volume with a tight
spread after the close as well as many major brokers provide
aftermarket trading.
We apologize for any inconvenience but this can happen since the
system is analyzing the trade and parameters all the way up to the
close.
Tom or Matt, did you send out an email notification after you
realized your error? I didn't receive one. I was
happily long, following the system, until I checked your site 5
minutes ago. I'm out now.
Posted by jlevinthal on 6th of Mar 2012 at 05:55 pm
The system would be a made easier if trading was always on the
next day opening. Is there a way to determine how much the
statistics degrade if we were to always trade next day. It would
eliminate false alarms and last minute changes
I would be lying if I said I remember right off the top of my
head. Matt does address this in general in the detail pages
posted under the SPY section but I don't remember if he
specifically states what the difference was. It was better to
buy the close and this has been supported by other independent
research (by firms like Bespoke) but I cannot say "how much" at
this moment. A member could always institute that rule for
themselves and just always execute on the open instead of worrying
about getting in on the close. We have also had some "nail
bitters" in the past which you would be able to then avoid.
I will see if I can look into the stat difference.
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Current SPY Position
Posted by tom on 6th of Mar 2012 at 04:49 pm
3/06/2012:
The SPY Swing System DID NOTtake a trade today. The range changed again in the very last few seconds of the market and the system DID NOT execute a trade. We did not have time to send the alert prior to the close and since the system does not normally execute a change that late we took a few minutes to verify that the change was correct and that there was truly no trade.
We realize that many of you may have taken a trade on the SPY due to the last email sent. It so happens that the SPY is trading at the same price (actually right now higher) in the aftermarket and the SPY ETF does trade decent volume with a tight spread after the close as well as many major brokers provide aftermarket trading.
We apologize for any inconvenience but this can happen since the system is analyzing the trade and parameters all the way up to the close.
Thank you,
BPT Team
At one time there was
Posted by randy on 6th of Mar 2012 at 06:11 pm
At one time there was a 65 % chance of getting a lower price the next day as opposed to buying right at the close.
Tom or Matt, did you
Posted by ascr on 7th of Mar 2012 at 03:36 pm
Tom or Matt, did you send out an email notification after you realized your error? I didn't receive one. I was happily long, following the system, until I checked your site 5 minutes ago. I'm out now.
congrats Ascr
Posted by sschulman on 7th of Mar 2012 at 04:04 pm
Hey congrats Ascr, it's so nice when mistakes turn out in your favour!
Yes we did. I received
Posted by tom on 7th of Mar 2012 at 03:49 pm
Yes we did. I received confirmation of the send at 4:47 PM EST and then posted the notice on the website and SPY Section.
Next Day Trading?
Posted by jlevinthal on 6th of Mar 2012 at 05:55 pm
The system would be a made easier if trading was always on the next day opening. Is there a way to determine how much the statistics degrade if we were to always trade next day. It would eliminate false alarms and last minute changes
I would be lying if
Posted by tom on 6th of Mar 2012 at 06:07 pm
I would be lying if I said I remember right off the top of my head. Matt does address this in general in the detail pages posted under the SPY section but I don't remember if he specifically states what the difference was. It was better to buy the close and this has been supported by other independent research (by firms like Bespoke) but I cannot say "how much" at this moment. A member could always institute that rule for themselves and just always execute on the open instead of worrying about getting in on the close. We have also had some "nail bitters" in the past which you would be able to then avoid.
I will see if I can look into the stat difference.