Not sure if struggling is a good term for this melt-up. That
bearish wedge was broken, and nothing happened; I think the
$VIX is stating the intentions of the bots that control this
market; as long as that $VIX stays buried, we might just melt up 4
points at a time... past major resistance and without any volume.
Interesting to note: no other major markets are threatening
any sort of "breakout". Take your pick: Australia, Canada,
Hang Seng, Shanghai, $DAX, $CAC, $FTSE..... it seems that the US
market is a safe haven for the entire world!
The last time the $VIX was this low the $SPX was over
1300. In addition, the $VIX is quite a bit below it's
November lows, while the $SPX is still below it's November
highs. This divergence leads me to believe that once this
melt up is over, the market is going to take the elevator shaft
down. At the very least, I would expect the $VIX to meet it's
20-day SMA again in the next couple of weeks, as we're quite a bit
below it at the moment.
Fwiw, there's a new moon tomorrow, which in the past have marked
some sort of turning point (although I wouldn't trade off of
this).
Yes that's correct, sometimes the moon cycles are right on and
sometimes they are not. Basically uou look for inflection
points at those cycles, but if no price inflection occurs then you
ignore it and expect price to continue in the direction and extend
to the next cycle etc.
here's an
updated chartwith all the cycles. The new moon is tomorrow and
the next full moon is on Jan 9th.
My strategies are starting to
Posted by jroger on 23rd of Dec 2011 at 01:11 pm
My strategies are starting to go Short..
not bad...
Posted by zwyss on 23rd of Dec 2011 at 01:49 pm
I think that's not a bad idea. SPY struggling at resistance. VXX rallying despite market up!!!!
I believe what keeps markets up here is that QQQ wants to make it to downtrendline and 200 MA. Not sure q's will make it...
Not sure if struggling is
Posted by kalinm on 23rd of Dec 2011 at 01:59 pm
Not sure if struggling is a good term for this melt-up. That bearish wedge was broken, and nothing happened; I think the $VIX is stating the intentions of the bots that control this market; as long as that $VIX stays buried, we might just melt up 4 points at a time... past major resistance and without any volume. Interesting to note: no other major markets are threatening any sort of "breakout". Take your pick: Australia, Canada, Hang Seng, Shanghai, $DAX, $CAC, $FTSE..... it seems that the US market is a safe haven for the entire world!
The last time the $VIX
Posted by pebs on 23rd of Dec 2011 at 02:14 pm
The last time the $VIX was this low the $SPX was over 1300. In addition, the $VIX is quite a bit below it's November lows, while the $SPX is still below it's November highs. This divergence leads me to believe that once this melt up is over, the market is going to take the elevator shaft down. At the very least, I would expect the $VIX to meet it's 20-day SMA again in the next couple of weeks, as we're quite a bit below it at the moment.
Fwiw, there's a new moon tomorrow, which in the past have marked some sort of turning point (although I wouldn't trade off of this).
Sometimes the moon is aligned
Posted by steveo on 23rd of Dec 2011 at 09:18 pm
Sometimes the moon is aligned with the markets and sometimes it is not. It may be coming back into vogue.
Yes that's correct, sometimes the
Posted by matt on 23rd of Dec 2011 at 11:20 pm
Yes that's correct, sometimes the moon cycles are right on and sometimes they are not. Basically uou look for inflection points at those cycles, but if no price inflection occurs then you ignore it and expect price to continue in the direction and extend to the next cycle etc.
here's an updated chart with all the cycles. The new moon is tomorrow and the next full moon is on Jan 9th.
At the rate the market
Posted by tomW1 on 23rd of Dec 2011 at 08:32 pm
At the rate the market is rising it will be at 1300 soon.....and therefore the $VIX should be in line, correct?
safe haven....
Posted by zwyss on 23rd of Dec 2011 at 02:05 pm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSPR&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97872727283&a=177380542&listNum=38