It looks as thought the SPY could close out it's Short position
today at the close. When we have a range and a more locked in
trade we will send an official notice but for now I promised I
would provide some feedback early in the AM.
If you want to deviate from the system in order to make the
system better match your personal risk/reward profile and investing
goals I say go for it. I would encourage you to somewhat soul
search and make sure your ready to close out a trade that then may
really run in our favor and realize you won't be in etc. but if you
are ok with all that then go for it. Especially if you find
yourself hesitant to get into positions the way the system does by
Shorting strength and Buying weakness, you could use the trigger to
help give you conviction but deviate on the exits.
Again, you can trade the system anyway you see fit but I just
encourage members to really be honest with themselves if they are
ready to be on their own or if maybe in there case it is better to
just follow the trades. The last thing you would want to do,
IMHO, is get out and back in and out etc. and find yourself losing
on a trade when the system wins.
Posted by fishbait on 27th of Sep 2011 at 01:51 pm
Why would anyone want to tinker with a system that traded good
for 15 years? The great thing about a mechanical system that works,
is that there is no emotion or stress. Check the past results and
notice that the system does give up some profits at times. This is
normal of any system. So relax and know that in the end it will be
alright. Thanks to the developers for sticking with the rules and
not changing them. It is the only way to go.
Posted by burkmere on 27th of Sep 2011 at 10:13 am
From a "nowhere close to closing the trade" yesterday...a
trade which once had over an 8% profit to possibly closing today
with perhaps a 2% profit..(maybe)...on end of quarter window
dressing...
Surprise, I am generally going to be pro BPT biased but those of
you who I have spoken to more in-depth will also probably know
about me that I don't like to hide from issues. I think if
you find a problem you should attack it head on and fix it right
there no matter how hard or uncomfortable it is and if that also
means saying "hey we got it wrong" then that's what you do.
Having said that I see this as a non-issue. Maybe Matt
could have/should have been more stoic in his comments but he is a
man not machine. Also when we get banged with PMs asking "is
there gonna be a trade!" we might decide to do a post instead of
answer 100 PMs and possibly when there are so many maybe it sways
the emotion of our response. Also later in the same post he
said just to not worry about any trade today, it is not like he
said "oh we are good for the rest of the week" and the next day we
triggered. Also I think he made the comment around 11am EST
on the 26th. What happened? We rallied roughly 50
S&P points in 24 hours. That was enough to make the
system want to lock in the trade. IDK, just doesn't seem like
something I would rag on. Fact is unless noted you should
expect there could be a trade any and everyday and plan
accordingly.
Posted by lessarda on 29th of Sep 2011 at 01:18 pm
my only request (and you know I don't pm anyone about alerts,
etc.) is that once there is the likelihood of a trade that the
range be included even if it seems too far away from current prices
to be relevant. We've had a couple of days like this last close out
where the system came within $0.25 or so of doing or not doing a
trade, and we didn't know that secondary # until afterward. These
markets move enough to bring wide ranges into play and it would
help to know where the next on or off switch is. Not asking for
why, just where...thanks for all the hard work from all of you.
Matt later recanted that statement and deleted the post.
The system was on a sell and thus why I didn't post a level in the
alert, otherwise as before if there are levels to watch we list
them.
I guess I just look at it as it is what it is. The system
doesn't reviews everything but also reviews nothing. Meaning
it does analyze window dressing, European debt situation, insider
trading, the weather etc. but only as much as it is represented in
the technicals. It just follows the rules without
emotion.
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It looks as thought the
Posted by tom on 27th of Sep 2011 at 10:03 am
It looks as thought the SPY could close out it's Short position today at the close. When we have a range and a more locked in trade we will send an official notice but for now I promised I would provide some feedback early in the AM.
Any news on SPY closing its short today??
Posted by rharvey on 27th of Sep 2011 at 02:22 pm
What a Bummer
Posted by rharvey on 27th of Sep 2011 at 11:07 am
Trading this system is hard work. Watching good profits slip through your fingers is tough.
Next time i've got a 5% winner i'll take my profits and look to re-enter if i can.
If you want to deviate
Posted by tom on 27th of Sep 2011 at 12:10 pm
If you want to deviate from the system in order to make the system better match your personal risk/reward profile and investing goals I say go for it. I would encourage you to somewhat soul search and make sure your ready to close out a trade that then may really run in our favor and realize you won't be in etc. but if you are ok with all that then go for it. Especially if you find yourself hesitant to get into positions the way the system does by Shorting strength and Buying weakness, you could use the trigger to help give you conviction but deviate on the exits.
Again, you can trade the system anyway you see fit but I just encourage members to really be honest with themselves if they are ready to be on their own or if maybe in there case it is better to just follow the trades. The last thing you would want to do, IMHO, is get out and back in and out etc. and find yourself losing on a trade when the system wins.
tinker tinker tinker
Posted by fishbait on 27th of Sep 2011 at 01:51 pm
Why would anyone want to tinker with a system that traded good for 15 years? The great thing about a mechanical system that works, is that there is no emotion or stress. Check the past results and notice that the system does give up some profits at times. This is normal of any system. So relax and know that in the end it will be alright. Thanks to the developers for sticking with the rules and not changing them. It is the only way to go.
I thought it only closes
Posted by kalinm on 27th of Sep 2011 at 10:17 am
I thought it only closes shorts on weakness?
Interesting....lol...
Posted by burkmere on 27th of Sep 2011 at 10:13 am
From a "nowhere close to closing the trade" yesterday...a trade which once had over an 8% profit to possibly closing today with perhaps a 2% profit..(maybe)...on end of quarter window dressing...
I agree. How did we
Posted by bobhug on 29th of Sep 2011 at 10:48 am
I agree. How did we go from "nowhere near an adjustment" to exiting the very next day? Hard to fathom this, if system triggers are being followed.
Surprise, I am generally going
Posted by tom on 29th of Sep 2011 at 01:05 pm
Surprise, I am generally going to be pro BPT biased but those of you who I have spoken to more in-depth will also probably know about me that I don't like to hide from issues. I think if you find a problem you should attack it head on and fix it right there no matter how hard or uncomfortable it is and if that also means saying "hey we got it wrong" then that's what you do.
Having said that I see this as a non-issue. Maybe Matt could have/should have been more stoic in his comments but he is a man not machine. Also when we get banged with PMs asking "is there gonna be a trade!" we might decide to do a post instead of answer 100 PMs and possibly when there are so many maybe it sways the emotion of our response. Also later in the same post he said just to not worry about any trade today, it is not like he said "oh we are good for the rest of the week" and the next day we triggered. Also I think he made the comment around 11am EST on the 26th. What happened? We rallied roughly 50 S&P points in 24 hours. That was enough to make the system want to lock in the trade. IDK, just doesn't seem like something I would rag on. Fact is unless noted you should expect there could be a trade any and everyday and plan accordingly.
Not quite sure what you're responding to here, Tom, but...
Posted by lessarda on 29th of Sep 2011 at 01:18 pm
my only request (and you know I don't pm anyone about alerts, etc.) is that once there is the likelihood of a trade that the range be included even if it seems too far away from current prices to be relevant. We've had a couple of days like this last close out where the system came within $0.25 or so of doing or not doing a trade, and we didn't know that secondary # until afterward. These markets move enough to bring wide ranges into play and it would help to know where the next on or off switch is. Not asking for why, just where...thanks for all the hard work from all of you.
Matt later recanted that statement
Posted by tom on 29th of Sep 2011 at 02:10 pm
Matt later recanted that statement and deleted the post. The system was on a sell and thus why I didn't post a level in the alert, otherwise as before if there are levels to watch we list them.
Are you saying it wasn't accurate?
Posted by lessarda on 29th of Sep 2011 at 02:13 pm
If it was, it was certainly a level to watch.
Yes, his statement after the
Posted by tom on 29th of Sep 2011 at 02:19 pm
Yes, his statement after the close that day was not correct. The mentioned level was of no significance to the trade.
Very good. Thanks.
Posted by lessarda on 29th of Sep 2011 at 02:24 pm
I guess I just look
Posted by tom on 27th of Sep 2011 at 11:51 am
I guess I just look at it as it is what it is. The system doesn't reviews everything but also reviews nothing. Meaning it does analyze window dressing, European debt situation, insider trading, the weather etc. but only as much as it is represented in the technicals. It just follows the rules without emotion.