your projection?

    Updated SPY projection chart

    Posted by sschulman on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 07:37 pm

    Hi ChartBoy

    I don't quite understand. Is your chart projecting a 33 point move from the almost-horizontal green line? ie up to about 1185?

    If it's not too much trouble, would you please explain how you chose those levels to draw your lines from?

    Sure SSchulman, What you are looking

    Posted by chartboy on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 08:15 pm

    Sure SSchulman,

    What you are looking for are at least two, and ideally three or more, swing points that all line up. In this case, for the "neckline" of the pattern what you are looking for are several highs that line up. I have identified those points in the first chart below in green, as well as the points that correspond to the lows of the "base" in red.

    Once that is done...then you can draw in your trendlines. In most cases you won't need one for the bottom of the base as that point will be a clear low. However, in this case where you have a relatively flat bottom with several lows in a similar area it can be helpful to do so...as you will be measuring the greatest distance from anyone of the lows...back up to the neckline, (in blue chart #2), and using the greatest distance to establish the "projection" to the area of the next high.

    Finally, as you can see from chart #3...you then measure the greatest depth from the lows to the "neckline" and that distance then becomes your "projection". Your "projection" is then "projected" forward in the prevailing direction of the pattern...starting at the point of the pattern where the neckline is finally broken.

    As you can see in this instance the exact measurements target an area just below the filling of last Thursdays gap, which happens to coincide with the last swing low, or "pivot", that was made just prior to the breakdown.

    Let me know if this helps..

     

    ohhh, I seeee - thank you

    Posted by sschulman on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 10:21 pm

    Thank you so much for that detailed explanation ChartBoy!

    And how interesting that the upward projection lines up so beautifully with that last swing low!

    Thanks for your Charts

    Posted by rdean33914 on 24th of Aug 2011 at 06:45 am

    Thanks for your Charts

    Nice charts chartboy, now on

    Posted by matt on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 09:39 pm

    Nice charts chartboy, now on a pullback want to see the neckline hold

    Agreed 100% Matt, If I am

    Posted by chartboy on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 09:42 pm

    Agreed 100% Matt,

    If I am correct with my conversions... I believe the neckline of the cash is theoretically being approximately tested by the futures at this moment..

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