Posted by chartboy on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 07:06 pm
Lots of folks have Pm'ed me and posted thanking me for providing
the previous projection chart showing the targeted low at 1123.
Accordingly, I have updated the chart to the show the current
projection.
As always please keep in mind these are the simply the charts
projections and nothing more. Additionally, this projection in
running countertrend leaving it more subject to a swing
target failure should any of the prevailing negative news
arise prior to the target being reached.
Chartboy - a move up to that area could be part of a larger
triangle pattern over time. This is early speculation but one
pattern I have been considering.
Another measured target would be where this advance equals the
prior advance at 1224 (a flat).
Lastly, one other thing to mention to sschulman. Often, you will
see a backtest of the broken neckline where you want to see buyers
step in on such a pullback. A failure to hold the neckline
compromises the setup.
Posted by sschulman on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 10:28 pm
These patterns are so interesting. Overnight futures are now
backtesting that line. Not sure if overnight futures would count
for the pattern - I don't see why not though. Or maybe it'll repeat
in the daytime. It's neat the way points just line up.
Posted by chartboy on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 10:36 pm
Believe me SSchulman..there is no coincidence whatsoever that
all of these points and projections line up. Everyone of the moves
the markets makes is a "fractal", (a "retracement" or an
"extension"), of a previous move. (That overall concept being know
as "symetry")
Depending on how big of a trader you are...and what security you
are trading in..it is not at all inconceivable that you can
literally "write the charts" to some extents if you so wish and
overall the fundementals and the underlying market support your
general moves.
Posted by chartboy on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 09:05 pm
Thanks Steve,
That is good to know. I outlined two possible trendlines below
in blue for the upper trendline of a potential triangle scenario.
Is this generally what you are thinking?
On a seperate note, I was just updating my charts, (I keep about
90 index/ETF charts updated more or less on a daily basis), and
I wanted to point out the relative weakness, (for a huge up
day), in all of the following groups: SMH/XHB/XLF/EWZ. If
this were the start of something bigger to the upside I would have
expected each of these groups from the semi's right through
to Brazil to have
on average outperformed the QQQ's by much greater
distance. However that was not the case. Now to be clear, the
numbers weren't bad, (in fact the SMH's and XLF did outperform the
COMP and SPX respectively as can be seen from the charts
below)..they just weren't "smokin", like one would expect if we
were about to take off on a 100pt SPX run to the upside.
Posted by chartboy on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 08:15 pm
Sure SSchulman,
What you are looking for are at least two, and ideally three or
more, swing points that all line up. In this case, for the
"neckline" of the pattern what you are looking for are several
highs that line up. I have identified those points in the first
chart below in green, as well as the points that correspond to the
lows of the "base" in red.
Once that is done...then you can draw in your trendlines. In
most cases you won't need one for the bottom of the base as
that point will be a clear low. However, in this case where you
have a relatively flat bottom with several lows in a similar area
it can be helpful to do so...as you will be measuring the greatest
distance from anyone of the lows...back up to the neckline, (in
blue chart #2), and using the greatest distance to establish
the "projection" to the area of the next high.
Finally, as you can see from chart #3...you then measure the
greatest depth from the lows to the "neckline" and that distance
then becomes your "projection". Your "projection" is then
"projected" forward in the prevailing direction of the
pattern...starting at the point of the pattern where the
neckline is finally broken.
As you can see in this instance the exact measurements
target an area just below the filling of last Thursdays gap, which
happens to coincide with the last swing low, or "pivot", that
was made just prior to the breakdown.
Updated SPY projection chart
Posted by chartboy on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 07:06 pm
Lots of folks have Pm'ed me and posted thanking me for providing the previous projection chart showing the targeted low at 1123. Accordingly, I have updated the chart to the show the current projection.
As always please keep in mind these are the simply the charts projections and nothing more. Additionally, this projection in running countertrend leaving it more subject to a swing target failure should any of the prevailing negative news arise prior to the target being reached.
C
Chartboy - a move up
Posted by steve on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 08:47 pm
Chartboy - a move up to that area could be part of a larger triangle pattern over time. This is early speculation but one pattern I have been considering.
Another measured target would be where this advance equals the prior advance at 1224 (a flat).
Lastly, one other thing to mention to sschulman. Often, you will see a backtest of the broken neckline where you want to see buyers step in on such a pullback. A failure to hold the neckline compromises the setup.
backtest
Posted by sschulman on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 10:28 pm
These patterns are so interesting. Overnight futures are now backtesting that line. Not sure if overnight futures would count for the pattern - I don't see why not though. Or maybe it'll repeat in the daytime. It's neat the way points just line up.
Believe me SSchulman..there is no
Posted by chartboy on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 10:36 pm
Believe me SSchulman..there is no coincidence whatsoever that all of these points and projections line up. Everyone of the moves the markets makes is a "fractal", (a "retracement" or an "extension"), of a previous move. (That overall concept being know as "symetry")
Depending on how big of a trader you are...and what security you are trading in..it is not at all inconceivable that you can literally "write the charts" to some extents if you so wish and overall the fundementals and the underlying market support your general moves.
Glad you enjoyed the charts/explanation!
C
Thanks Steve, That is good to
Posted by chartboy on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 09:05 pm
Thanks Steve,
That is good to know. I outlined two possible trendlines below in blue for the upper trendline of a potential triangle scenario. Is this generally what you are thinking?
On a seperate note, I was just updating my charts, (I keep about 90 index/ETF charts updated more or less on a daily basis), and I wanted to point out the relative weakness, (for a huge up day), in all of the following groups: SMH/XHB/XLF/EWZ. If this were the start of something bigger to the upside I would have expected each of these groups from the semi's right through to Brazil to have on average outperformed the QQQ's by much greater distance. However that was not the case. Now to be clear, the numbers weren't bad, (in fact the SMH's and XLF did outperform the COMP and SPX respectively as can be seen from the charts below)..they just weren't "smokin", like one would expect if we were about to take off on a 100pt SPX run to the upside.
C
your projection?
Posted by sschulman on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 07:37 pm
Hi ChartBoy
I don't quite understand. Is your chart projecting a 33 point move from the almost-horizontal green line? ie up to about 1185?
If it's not too much trouble, would you please explain how you chose those levels to draw your lines from?
Sure SSchulman, What you are looking
Posted by chartboy on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 08:15 pm
Sure SSchulman,
What you are looking for are at least two, and ideally three or more, swing points that all line up. In this case, for the "neckline" of the pattern what you are looking for are several highs that line up. I have identified those points in the first chart below in green, as well as the points that correspond to the lows of the "base" in red.
Once that is done...then you can draw in your trendlines. In most cases you won't need one for the bottom of the base as that point will be a clear low. However, in this case where you have a relatively flat bottom with several lows in a similar area it can be helpful to do so...as you will be measuring the greatest distance from anyone of the lows...back up to the neckline, (in blue chart #2), and using the greatest distance to establish the "projection" to the area of the next high.
Finally, as you can see from chart #3...you then measure the greatest depth from the lows to the "neckline" and that distance then becomes your "projection". Your "projection" is then "projected" forward in the prevailing direction of the pattern...starting at the point of the pattern where the neckline is finally broken.
As you can see in this instance the exact measurements target an area just below the filling of last Thursdays gap, which happens to coincide with the last swing low, or "pivot", that was made just prior to the breakdown.
Let me know if this helps..
C
ohhh, I seeee - thank you
Posted by sschulman on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 10:21 pm
Thank you so much for that detailed explanation ChartBoy!
And how interesting that the upward projection lines up so beautifully with that last swing low!
Thanks for your Charts
Posted by rdean33914 on 24th of Aug 2011 at 06:45 am
Thanks for your Charts
Nice charts chartboy, now on
Posted by matt on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 09:39 pm
Nice charts chartboy, now on a pullback want to see the neckline hold
Agreed 100% Matt, If I am
Posted by chartboy on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 09:42 pm
Agreed 100% Matt,
If I am correct with my conversions... I believe the neckline of the cash is theoretically being approximately tested by the futures at this moment..
C