Under the new system rules, we would have been stopped out at
-6.5% and then go long again at some point (to catch some of the
expected rise). Can you let us know when we hit this buy
point under the new system rules? I'm expecting a decent
bounce and would like to catch some of it.
Posted by lessarda on 11th of Aug 2011 at 04:48 pm
would you please show the same analysis for the two backtested
trades that the new rules would have affected (Feb 09 & Jul
02)? Thanks again.
Also, is the re-entry more a matter of resetting the system
below the stop as if the original trade hadn't been taken or are
you introducing entirely new rules/logic for that re-entries than
you already had for entries?
Once I have the coding done, I will show the stats. I
don't find this stuff by back-testing and curve fitting a bunch of
variables until I find something that looks good, I study the
charts and trades in-depth and manually
decide myself what makes logical sense and what looks
good, and then tell the programmer to program it in.
He's not finished coding in all that I want yet, when he's
finished I'll show the new results.
Posted by kingpin777 on 11th of Aug 2011 at 06:41 pm
I hedged 50% of my position today with a double short etf
(canadian version, hsd.to).
If we get some weakness tomorrow i'm reasonably covered (or a
wave 5 down).
With the bounce off 1200, my loss was cut in half (i went off
the reservation and delayed entries 1 & 2) and i'm comfortable
holding for a larger bounce.
Matt -- right now that buy looks great -- it makes me wonder
though if the system could take a series of 6.5% losses if the
market kept generally moving down? I thought the system might have
to somehow reaffirm that it was a bull market before buying in
again.
We will have to review that request. At this point I have
to just say its a possible until I speak with Matt but another
point would be the question somewhat assumes the system might not
have already bought and I cannot verify that is the case.
Buy point under new rules
New SPY system stop loss rules, etc
Posted by starfox on 11th of Aug 2011 at 12:34 pm
Hey Matt,
Under the new system rules, we would have been stopped out at -6.5% and then go long again at some point (to catch some of the expected rise). Can you let us know when we hit this buy point under the new system rules? I'm expecting a decent bounce and would like to catch some of it.
startfox - under the new
Posted by matt on 11th of Aug 2011 at 03:30 pm
startfox - under the new rules, the system would have bought at the close of 8/8 at 112.26.
Thanks, Matt...
Posted by lessarda on 11th of Aug 2011 at 04:48 pm
would you please show the same analysis for the two backtested trades that the new rules would have affected (Feb 09 & Jul 02)? Thanks again.
Also, is the re-entry more a matter of resetting the system below the stop as if the original trade hadn't been taken or are you introducing entirely new rules/logic for that re-entries than you already had for entries?
Once I have the coding
Posted by matt on 11th of Aug 2011 at 06:47 pm
Once I have the coding done, I will show the stats. I don't find this stuff by back-testing and curve fitting a bunch of variables until I find something that looks good, I study the charts and trades in-depth and manually decide myself what makes logical sense and what looks good, and then tell the programmer to program it in.
He's not finished coding in all that I want yet, when he's finished I'll show the new results.
Understood...I was just referring to the affected trades from the development period
Posted by lessarda on 11th of Aug 2011 at 07:11 pm
vs. the post-release current trade. The comments in recent days on curve-fitting miss your point here.
Outstanding info Matt. Another reason
Posted by Robert50 on 11th of Aug 2011 at 04:03 pm
Outstanding info Matt. Another reason to stay with the trade if you were inclined to sell!
gap down tomorrow, up next
Posted by Robert50 on 11th of Aug 2011 at 04:15 pm
gap down tomorrow, up next week? Looks that way. Would be healthy as steve pointed out.
I hedged 50% of my
Posted by kingpin777 on 11th of Aug 2011 at 06:41 pm
I hedged 50% of my position today with a double short etf (canadian version, hsd.to).
If we get some weakness tomorrow i'm reasonably covered (or a wave 5 down).
With the bounce off 1200, my loss was cut in half (i went off the reservation and delayed entries 1 & 2) and i'm comfortable holding for a larger bounce.
We'll see how it plays out.
Well I'm sure we have
Posted by matt on 11th of Aug 2011 at 04:12 pm
Well I'm sure we have plenty of people members who sold on the close of the 8th who couldn't take it anymore
trade's not over yet....still a
Posted by marketguy on 11th of Aug 2011 at 05:13 pm
trade's not over yet....still a chance we undercut the lows (and god only knows what may happen then)......
Maybe, Matt, but breaking discipline
Posted by Robert50 on 11th of Aug 2011 at 04:24 pm
Maybe, Matt, but breaking discipline is counter-productive to a mechanical system, as you have pointed out. Capitulation I guess.
how about a rule that
Posted by bkout3 on 11th of Aug 2011 at 04:50 pm
how about a rule that if 70% of us can't take any more pain and bail out the system doubles down? LOL
ha ha, yeah that's good
Posted by matt on 11th of Aug 2011 at 06:45 pm
ha ha, yeah that's good one, I wish I could program our feelings into it.
Matt -- right now that
Posted by bkout3 on 11th of Aug 2011 at 04:02 pm
Matt -- right now that buy looks great -- it makes me wonder though if the system could take a series of 6.5% losses if the market kept generally moving down? I thought the system might have to somehow reaffirm that it was a bull market before buying in again.
We will have to review
Posted by tom on 11th of Aug 2011 at 03:20 pm
We will have to review that request. At this point I have to just say its a possible until I speak with Matt but another point would be the question somewhat assumes the system might not have already bought and I cannot verify that is the case.
great point
Posted by rikkwan on 11th of Aug 2011 at 03:13 pm
good thinking star!
Posted by bkout3 on 11th of Aug 2011 at 01:30 pm
good thinking star!