Since a lot of you have been talking about TBT and TBT,
bonds/interest rates and a lot of you made nice money on out TBT
trade, here are my thoughts on the 10 year yield chart, which would
also relate to TBT - Please pull up the chart and read my comments.
Otherwise I'm leaving for the evening with my wife and
friends.
Dec 18th: The 10 Year Yield $TNX has had a nice rally off the
5th wave divergent low from Oct desipte action by QE2. $TNX
currently is pulling back from a logical resistance area which was
a place to take some profits on TBT and TYO. However a
bullish case would have this pullback being only a wave 4 since
there was no negative divergence in place at the recent highs, then
one more move higher to form a wave 5 top. After that I would
expect a decent correction possibly retraceing 38% - 50% of the
move up, which would provide a great buying opportunity for
TBT
I've been using your charts of TBT, TYX and TNX to follow the
interest rate bond trade, and have done very well on this
trade. Your comments on this trade have been right on so far,
and I appreciate your guidance very much. However, there are
significant divergences between the 10 and 30 year yields which I
think could have a bearing on how we count the waves from the lows
this fall, and could affect the timing of this trade - could you
comment?
I've noticed that TBT has more closely followed the TYX 30 year
yield than the TNX 10 year - the 10 year yield made a divergent low
in October where TBT and TYX had divergent lows in
August. Since the 30 year yield "led the market" in the
interest rate trend change this fall, perhaps it may also "lead the
market" if we are to see a trend reversal now.
Both the TBT and TYX charts showed negative divergence on the
daily charts at the highs this week, and the wave counts on these
look like a completed 5 wave structure since the lows in
August. The TBT and TYX charts at least offer the possibility
that a 5th wave top is in, which would argue for more than a slight
pullback in interest rates now. If this plays out it would
also suggest a larger correction in the overall market sooner
rather than later.
Thanks again for your great website. You guys do by far
the best job of any site I have worked with, and I feel I have
really become a better trader (with a lot of room for improvement
remaining) with your guidance, and the helpful posts of many on
this site. Best wishes for the holdiays to you and Steve and
all at BPT.
Posted by eberhard on 18th of Dec 2010 at 08:18 pm
Matt, I followed your TBT trade to 40 where you told us more
than a dozen times it would hit resistance. Made lots
of money. Thanks for the continuing analysis as this is my
kind of trading.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
10 year Rates and TBT, TYO comments
Posted by matt on 18th of Dec 2010 at 04:53 pm
$TNX chart
Since a lot of you have been talking about TBT and TBT, bonds/interest rates and a lot of you made nice money on out TBT trade, here are my thoughts on the 10 year yield chart, which would also relate to TBT - Please pull up the chart and read my comments. Otherwise I'm leaving for the evening with my wife and friends.
Dec 18th: The 10 Year Yield $TNX has had a nice rally off the 5th wave divergent low from Oct desipte action by QE2. $TNX currently is pulling back from a logical resistance area which was a place to take some profits on TBT and TYO. However a bullish case would have this pullback being only a wave 4 since there was no negative divergence in place at the recent highs, then one more move higher to form a wave 5 top. After that I would expect a decent correction possibly retraceing 38% - 50% of the move up, which would provide a great buying opportunity for TBT
I agree with that Matt.
Posted by PA on 19th of Dec 2010 at 07:37 pm
I agree with that Matt. See also 60 Minutes lead story tonight.......govt finances continue to unravel around the world
Title: that also looks like... a
Posted by brophy on 19th of Dec 2010 at 05:03 pm
a head an shoulders bottom. surprised nobody mentioned...
For TBT, 50 DMA is
Posted by harshblue on 19th of Dec 2010 at 03:04 pm
For TBT, 50 DMA is a very nice support/resistance area.
Title: TBT/TYX - 5th wave
Posted by ducksoup on 19th of Dec 2010 at 12:24 pm
Hi Matt
I've been using your charts of TBT, TYX and TNX to follow the interest rate bond trade, and have done very well on this trade. Your comments on this trade have been right on so far, and I appreciate your guidance very much. However, there are significant divergences between the 10 and 30 year yields which I think could have a bearing on how we count the waves from the lows this fall, and could affect the timing of this trade - could you comment?
I've noticed that TBT has more closely followed the TYX 30 year yield than the TNX 10 year - the 10 year yield made a divergent low in October where TBT and TYX had divergent lows in August. Since the 30 year yield "led the market" in the interest rate trend change this fall, perhaps it may also "lead the market" if we are to see a trend reversal now.
Both the TBT and TYX charts showed negative divergence on the daily charts at the highs this week, and the wave counts on these look like a completed 5 wave structure since the lows in August. The TBT and TYX charts at least offer the possibility that a 5th wave top is in, which would argue for more than a slight pullback in interest rates now. If this plays out it would also suggest a larger correction in the overall market sooner rather than later.
Thanks again for your great website. You guys do by far the best job of any site I have worked with, and I feel I have really become a better trader (with a lot of room for improvement remaining) with your guidance, and the helpful posts of many on this site. Best wishes for the holdiays to you and Steve and all at BPT.
Your TBT swing trade was perfect
Posted by eberhard on 18th of Dec 2010 at 08:18 pm
Matt, I followed your TBT trade to 40 where you told us more than a dozen times it would hit resistance. Made lots of money. Thanks for the continuing analysis as this is my kind of trading.