this was covered in the newsletter but the divergence is continuing and worth noting

on the last bull run copper peaked with equities around 10/27 - on this run copper peaked over a week ago.  yesterday was especially interesting with gold/silver and oil getting a nice bounce from the drop in the dollar, copper had a subdued bounce and is declining this morning even as the dollar drops more...

yesterday copper bounced off the 3.75 level which was the October high - if that doesn't hold there isn't much to keep copper from a quick 4-5% drop

http://m3financialsense.blogspot.com/2012/01/look-at-our-euro-bounce-and-cot.html

also bounced off lower BB yesterday - two previous touches resulted in reversal...

interesting symmetry right now between the expanding triangle which resulted in a reversal up at 1.26 and nearly a mirror image of that pattern forming around resistance at 1.32ish - will be watching to see if the current pattern also results in a reversal

not far to go to hit low interest rates of 2008 crash

strange things happening, correlations we have come to think of as "given" are not working - Euro breaks out while the S+P is breaking down, and vice versa.

Interesting that whoever or whatever is pushing the euro up waited until 4PM exactly to break through resistance at 132.20 - that can't be a coincidence. 

ihs measures to about 132.20, between the 38 and 50 % fibs from yesterday's high - if we get a symetrical a/b/c move it would measure to about 131.95, right at the 38% fib.  Best guess is we get the a/b/c then move down into the close.

head and shoulders patterns on futures do not show on cash index

at horizontal and trendline resistance, wedge complete

thanks Matt for another great commodity newsletter

gold - could also be viewed as a developing descending triangle with about a 350 dollar height to the pattern - a short if gold reverses at the descending trendline with a stop just above would be a low risk way to play, could watch to see if bullish wedge plays out or if it breaks support

copper - also at an important resistance area as noted in the newsletter tonight - this pattern looks like a huge bear flag to me - also a low risk short on a reversal in the shaded area

mystery chart - I think if you looked at this chart it would qualify to be on the watch list as a potential bull flag breakout with a nice period of consolidation and an ascending triangle....yep, it's the 10 year treasury bond

I'm also prepared to melt up some more, but watching to see if these patterns present low risk opportunities.

I use firefox for most of my internet browsing, and have not been able to upload charts - using internet explorer for this post and charts are uploading - so I am guessing Firefox has issues for this site - are others aware of this?

that seems to be the best explanation for what has been happening - an extended period of time seeing the euro drop, US equities and US treasuries rise all in sync. 

What I have been wondering is what will happen if the European crisis seems contained for a period of time - will equities bounce like you would normally expect, or ??  I think we got a preview of that last week when the Euro bounced and we saw a bounce in stocks but no big move. 

copper has been hot lately but overall has lagged the rebound in equities by quite a bit - looks like a large flag/wedge ever since the big drop - It's at an important level around 3.73 where it could either be testing it's breakout over the late October highs or breaking down out of the flag. 

the negative divergence in the MACD daily time frame is pretty significant - also very close to a cross over the signal line as you note.   MACD divergences in the daily time frame can be very powerful as we saw in July and October.

http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/

makes sense to me!  I have been amazed at the consistent futures ramp in after hours then distribution during the day in this recent uptrend.  Jason's explanation of money inflows from Europe offsetting domestic outflows is very interesting

Which brings us to today - with the market actually up during cash trading hours something we haven't seen much of lately - will be interesting to see if the S+P can break to new highs; watching to see if we get a pop up near R2 = 1308, could be a good spot to take a chance on a top with OPEX this week as well.

now the 6th time in the 145-146 area since August  - ascending triangle pattern suggests a breakout to new highs - not confirming the run up in equities

index futures being run up again after hours - gap over resistance again in the morning?  They are actually starting a little early - will be interesting to see if they can keep the momentum up until we reach the cash market tomorrow - reminds me of a favorite line from Butch Cassidy and the Sundance kid - "who are those guys?" (the ones buying up the futures to gap over resisitance)

the one in long term tools appears to have gone long today - the one in long term tools doesn't make a trades very often and is more of a "non trader's system" - it does appear to have gone long today - I would like to have Matt comment on the SPY system in long term tools as well since it only trades a few times a year if that.

if you had told me last Friday that the S+P would finish the week 1.8% up and the euro would trade 1.8% down - I would not have believed it.

perhaps part of what is keeping the market going today is the expectation of a good number tomorrow in non farm payrolls - based on the high number in ADP today.   It feels like a "sell the news" event could be brewing tomorrow AM with a good NFP number