The part I saw of that said he indicated to buy on Dec 20th and
that there would be strength into early January. Pretty consistent
with regular December seasonality. It is all guesswork, looks
brilliant if it correct during an hour, day, etc. Looks wrong if a
particular hour, day, etc. goes against it. Regular seasonal
strength in December is the norm, last time it wasn't strong was in
2018 when we had that decline into Christmas eve which finished off
a 20% correction from the prior highs over months.
I just trade my own plan. Looking like a chop fest to me with
gaps on both sides. My thought is rangebound here, not a blastoff,
not a crash. All depends on the timeframe and individual
definitions of one's plan. The people behind the curtain running
the market, I called them "Oz" will come back and burn both sides
of the market when they decide its time. Just taking advantage of
what they give, when they give it. The reversion to mean stuff is
great because the odds are very good of success. I crack up at the
reasons the market is up or down on a given day. Just playing the
numbers is the way to go for me. Only reason I'm aware of the
economic events is because they help me with my buying and selling
decisions in combination with my other rules.
Earnings reports boosting the market: Good reaction to NKE and
FDX reports.
New gap will be opening at 3,821.62 for SPX cash. Great headfake
getting people to stay too long hoping for that first gap fill
lower, never got there. Will be interesting to see if this fades or
we have a gap and go. Nobody knows til it happens. Risk/reward.
Gaps above as prior referenced at 3,895.75 and also
3,995.32.
I often think about how and when to allocate capital in terms of
investment considerations.
It bears a priority reminder that I should also consider how I
allocate my emotional capital/energy. Time is the most valuable of
resources, I must invest it wisely.
It doesn't count as a gap fill for the cash market (regular
trading hours 9:30 am-4 pm) Means it will likely trade there again.
Be it today, another day, or next year. Timing is always the
rub with gaps. And nobody can really know. All the guessing is a
waste to me.
SPX sold out of my hedges (SPXS) on that 3,800 area test. The
gap is down at 3,748 for the full fill though I figured close
enough with how oversold it is shorter term. Eat meat not crumbs,
not pushing it in the hole.
I'm long a second entry with the SPY system and using SPXL as my
instrument. All I can do is position for risk/reward.
$SPX on days like today, even after hedging off some of the
risk, I have to keep in mind how stretched things are away from the
5 and 9 day moving averages. Honestly frustrating it can take weeks
to climb up like that and then give a bunch back in 3 days. How do
they say "stairs up, elevator down". Classic:
I don't know how interesting it was haha That's cool, thank you
for sharing. I've enjoyed talking to some guys who were around in
the last generations in markets. Yes,times have changed though
depending on how you are set up, they don't make it easy for doing
business with all the hoops you have to jump through to stay
compliant doing the actual business. And with so much risk for not
getting that part right, it created a lot of stress.
..couldn't just sit back and not help people rebalance their
portfolios when the opportunity was there to do so (during times of
extremes). A good fit for the clients though ultimately I burned
out after a few decades. I started my financial career in banking,
those were fun times. I remember when 7% money market accounts were
around and being hungry to bank everyone in the city. Our teams did
some amazing things, all in serving our customers' best
interests.
I think the good thing about looking back through the past to
the present is I gain perspective in life. There are times when you
have to navigate a lot of difficulty for a period, though it is a
chance to grow as a person, there is a lot of good on the other
side of it, and a lot to be grateful for everyday.
That year (2018) was the last unseasonal December for stocks. I
remember because I worked 14 hours that day buying stocks for
clients on Christmas Eve. We were down about 20% from the highs at
that point. It turned out to be an amazing buy and period to come
with that inventory. Just terrible having to do that over the
holidays though it was what it was. Stuff like that is why I'm glad
to no longer be in the business. It is hard to outperform machines
with all the regulation too, tons of work. You need a team and I
didn't want to hire people above and beyond the support staff for
my practice.
DIS I bought some at 90.40s gap fill area. I know the chart is
horrible. Accumulating longer term swing as I think it does well at
some point. They invested well in streaming and the pandemic
shutdowns will clear up eventually. They have some other great
businesses in Marvel movies and ESPN. The parks perform. Lots to
like when sentiment improves.
I sold a bunch in 120s prior and have posted about it. Trim and
trail as usual
Gap fills, timing, and trading..(an excerpt from my trading
journal 12/16/22)
Today is interesting and I am skeptical of the 3,748 filling at
some point, though with the market gapping down it is at one of the
support zones. So it doesn't have to fill today. If it does, cool,
though can't rule out today being flat or otherwise choppy because
of quad witching and other conditions. One thing I always have to
be mindful of is being married to my desired outcome.
Yesterday was a perfect example. I took some good profits
at the 3,934 area and left open 1/4 of my hedge position. The SPX
then fell to 3,879 to then bounce to 3,907 or so where I bought
back my hedge to get me back to 50% hedged in my trading account.
The message of the market had changed and it ended up closing below
the 3,900 support opening things up for another leg down.
Facing the same difficulty this morning as prior referenced in
my other journal notes, I'm taking some of that hedge inventory off
with good profits and will leave 1/4 open again in case the market
decides to drop further. I'm not expecting anything though, will
just see what happens. There have been more than a few days this
year where all the action occurs overnight and there isn't much to
do during the day once I'm repositioned.
On November 9th , the SPX closed at 3,748.57. It opened at
3,859.89 the next day and that was the low of the day. The market
closed at 3,956.37 on November 10th. One can miss this if not
zooming in to another time frame. The market never looked back and
filled the gap at 3,748.57 so far.
SPX What is a gap? A gap is created by a difference between the
opening and close price of a stock, index, etc. I'm trading the
S&P 500 "cash market" (regular business hours 9:30am-4pm, so
that is what I mean by the "cash" market).
This morning is a perfect example of a gap, as yesterday the
market closed at 3,895.75. If the current price action continues,
there will be a new gap that is open there and price would have to
rally upward to fill it. There was a gap from the previous day as
well and it is at 3,995.32 that is still open as well.
This same behavior can also occur in the other direction. There
are open gaps below from the recent rally at 3,748.57 and 3,583.07.
Sometimes people are looking at a different chart/timeframe and
they miss the actual gap fill number. I've been tracking these for
many years and just simply write the number down when it occurs. So
I already know what I'm looking for without even looking at a
chart.
I can then match it up with other areas of supply/demand and
ultimately see at what points the market responds to
buying/selling. Certainly not a perfect world, though gaps have
saved/made me a lot of money over the years. The challenge is
always timing of the gap fills, some close quickly, and others take
weeks/months to fill. There is some data that 92% of them do fill
though, so dealing with probabilities as a trader/investor as I
consider making my trading/investment decisions, I must respect
that degree of risk on either side.
Yesterday wasn't ultra surprising given that the market gapped
up on a Fed event, why not gap down to reacting to another. It all
sounds good anyway for a reason "why" haha
This is part of the difficulty of trading/investing, the timing,
especially if trading it becomes a little tougher to get it exactly
right, so what I do sometimes is just take good profits, or trim
and trail my position as I don't know if the full gap fill will
occur on a particular day. Eat meat and not crumbs. Anyone telling
you that they are timing it perfectly in every case isn't being
truthful imo.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Great trading RB!
Closed out rest of PAAS short at 16.55 this a.m. ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Dec 2022 at 09:16 am
Great trading RB!
The part I saw of
Looks like Larry Williams update he posted maybe right that ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Dec 2022 at 08:49 am
The part I saw of that said he indicated to buy on Dec 20th and that there would be strength into early January. Pretty consistent with regular December seasonality. It is all guesswork, looks brilliant if it correct during an hour, day, etc. Looks wrong if a particular hour, day, etc. goes against it. Regular seasonal strength in December is the norm, last time it wasn't strong was in 2018 when we had that decline into Christmas eve which finished off a 20% correction from the prior highs over months.
I just trade my own plan. Looking like a chop fest to me with gaps on both sides. My thought is rangebound here, not a blastoff, not a crash. All depends on the timeframe and individual definitions of one's plan. The people behind the curtain running the market, I called them "Oz" will come back and burn both sides of the market when they decide its time. Just taking advantage of what they give, when they give it. The reversion to mean stuff is great because the odds are very good of success. I crack up at the reasons the market is up or down on a given day. Just playing the numbers is the way to go for me. Only reason I'm aware of the economic events is because they help me with my buying and selling decisions in combination with my other rules.
Great work Matt! Thank you!
SPY and ES systems open trades
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 21st of Dec 2022 at 04:34 pm
Great work Matt! Thank you!
SPX got to 3,890 today,
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 21st of Dec 2022 at 03:04 pm
SPX got to 3,890 today, there is a gap fill at 3,895s waiting above and another at 3,995s.
Wonder if gdp and/or jobs reports will fill one of these gaps tomorrow?
First one below at 3,821s now. Managing risk on both sides accordingly.
3,748.53. Many think it is
Earnings reports boosting the market: Good reaction to NKE and ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 21st of Dec 2022 at 09:37 am
3,748.53. Many think it is higher because of the chart timeframe not being zoomed in enough. I write the close prices down and watch every gap.
I posted the Nov 9 and 10th prices and info in a prior post some days back.
Earnings reports boosting the market:
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 21st of Dec 2022 at 08:35 am
Earnings reports boosting the market: Good reaction to NKE and FDX reports.
New gap will be opening at 3,821.62 for SPX cash. Great headfake getting people to stay too long hoping for that first gap fill lower, never got there. Will be interesting to see if this fades or we have a gap and go. Nobody knows til it happens. Risk/reward.
Gaps above as prior referenced at 3,895.75 and also 3,995.32.
12/20/22-(excerpt taken from my trading
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 20th of Dec 2022 at 09:20 am
12/20/22-(excerpt taken from my trading journal)
I often think about how and when to allocate capital in terms of investment considerations.
It bears a priority reminder that I should also consider how I allocate my emotional capital/energy. Time is the most valuable of resources, I must invest it wisely.
Enjoy your day.
It doesn't count as a
Futures down right at 40 points. Unless we get recovery ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 20th of Dec 2022 at 07:57 am
It doesn't count as a gap fill for the cash market (regular trading hours 9:30 am-4 pm) Means it will likely trade there again. Be it today, another day, or next year. Timing is always the rub with gaps. And nobody can really know. All the guessing is a waste to me.
SPX sold out of my
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 19th of Dec 2022 at 04:20 pm
SPX sold out of my hedges (SPXS) on that 3,800 area test. The gap is down at 3,748 for the full fill though I figured close enough with how oversold it is shorter term. Eat meat not crumbs, not pushing it in the hole.
I'm long a second entry with the SPY system and using SPXL as my instrument. All I can do is position for risk/reward.
"Repelled at vwap" in my
SPX 5 min
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 03:07 pm
"Repelled at vwap" in my Steve voice lol
SPX we moved down to
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 01:55 pm
SPX we moved down to the bottom pivot on my longer term chart at the lows today. Needs to rally now at least hold these lows.
Wow, I had not heard
SPY and ES systems early heads up
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:55 am
Wow, I had not heard that before. I think there would be some good in more breaks from work in general.
$SPX on days like today,
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:50 am
$SPX on days like today, even after hedging off some of the risk, I have to keep in mind how stretched things are away from the 5 and 9 day moving averages. Honestly frustrating it can take weeks to climb up like that and then give a bunch back in 3 days. How do they say "stairs up, elevator down". Classic:
https://schrts.co/qQhGiayS
schrts.co
$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Create advanced interactive price charts for $SPX, with a wide variety of chart types, technical indicators, overlays, and annotation tools.
I don't know how interesting
SPY and ES systems early heads up
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:45 am
I don't know how interesting it was haha That's cool, thank you for sharing. I've enjoyed talking to some guys who were around in the last generations in markets. Yes,times have changed though depending on how you are set up, they don't make it easy for doing business with all the hoops you have to jump through to stay compliant doing the actual business. And with so much risk for not getting that part right, it created a lot of stress.
..couldn't just sit back and not help people rebalance their portfolios when the opportunity was there to do so (during times of extremes). A good fit for the clients though ultimately I burned out after a few decades. I started my financial career in banking, those were fun times. I remember when 7% money market accounts were around and being hungry to bank everyone in the city. Our teams did some amazing things, all in serving our customers' best interests.
I think the good thing about looking back through the past to the present is I gain perspective in life. There are times when you have to navigate a lot of difficulty for a period, though it is a chance to grow as a person, there is a lot of good on the other side of it, and a lot to be grateful for everyday.
That year (2018) was the
SPY and ES systems early heads up
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:22 am
That year (2018) was the last unseasonal December for stocks. I remember because I worked 14 hours that day buying stocks for clients on Christmas Eve. We were down about 20% from the highs at that point. It turned out to be an amazing buy and period to come with that inventory. Just terrible having to do that over the holidays though it was what it was. Stuff like that is why I'm glad to no longer be in the business. It is hard to outperform machines with all the regulation too, tons of work. You need a team and I didn't want to hire people above and beyond the support staff for my practice.
DIS I bought some at
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 09:48 am
DIS I bought some at 90.40s gap fill area. I know the chart is horrible. Accumulating longer term swing as I think it does well at some point. They invested well in streaming and the pandemic shutdowns will clear up eventually. They have some other great businesses in Marvel movies and ESPN. The parks perform. Lots to like when sentiment improves.
I sold a bunch in 120s prior and have posted about it. Trim and trail as usual
For sure, I appreciate you.
Gap fills, timing, and trading..(an excerpt from my trading journal ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 08:13 am
For sure, I appreciate you. Please find us another diamond pattern soon
Gap fills, timing, and trading..(an
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 07:58 am
Gap fills, timing, and trading..(an excerpt from my trading journal 12/16/22)
Today is interesting and I am skeptical of the 3,748 filling at some point, though with the market gapping down it is at one of the support zones. So it doesn't have to fill today. If it does, cool, though can't rule out today being flat or otherwise choppy because of quad witching and other conditions. One thing I always have to be mindful of is being married to my desired outcome.
Yesterday was a perfect example. I took some good profits at the 3,934 area and left open 1/4 of my hedge position. The SPX then fell to 3,879 to then bounce to 3,907 or so where I bought back my hedge to get me back to 50% hedged in my trading account. The message of the market had changed and it ended up closing below the 3,900 support opening things up for another leg down.
Facing the same difficulty this morning as prior referenced in my other journal notes, I'm taking some of that hedge inventory off with good profits and will leave 1/4 open again in case the market decides to drop further. I'm not expecting anything though, will just see what happens. There have been more than a few days this year where all the action occurs overnight and there isn't much to do during the day once I'm repositioned.
Have a great day and best of success!
On November 9th , the
Is the SPY headed to the 3818 GAP fill?
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 07:47 am
On November 9th , the SPX closed at 3,748.57. It opened at 3,859.89 the next day and that was the low of the day. The market closed at 3,956.37 on November 10th. One can miss this if not zooming in to another time frame. The market never looked back and filled the gap at 3,748.57 so far.
SPX What is a gap?
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 06:43 am
SPX What is a gap? A gap is created by a difference between the opening and close price of a stock, index, etc. I'm trading the S&P 500 "cash market" (regular business hours 9:30am-4pm, so that is what I mean by the "cash" market).
This morning is a perfect example of a gap, as yesterday the market closed at 3,895.75. If the current price action continues, there will be a new gap that is open there and price would have to rally upward to fill it. There was a gap from the previous day as well and it is at 3,995.32 that is still open as well.
This same behavior can also occur in the other direction. There are open gaps below from the recent rally at 3,748.57 and 3,583.07. Sometimes people are looking at a different chart/timeframe and they miss the actual gap fill number. I've been tracking these for many years and just simply write the number down when it occurs. So I already know what I'm looking for without even looking at a chart.
I can then match it up with other areas of supply/demand and ultimately see at what points the market responds to buying/selling. Certainly not a perfect world, though gaps have saved/made me a lot of money over the years. The challenge is always timing of the gap fills, some close quickly, and others take weeks/months to fill. There is some data that 92% of them do fill though, so dealing with probabilities as a trader/investor as I consider making my trading/investment decisions, I must respect that degree of risk on either side.
Yesterday wasn't ultra surprising given that the market gapped up on a Fed event, why not gap down to reacting to another. It all sounds good anyway for a reason "why" haha
This is part of the difficulty of trading/investing, the timing, especially if trading it becomes a little tougher to get it exactly right, so what I do sometimes is just take good profits, or trim and trail my position as I don't know if the full gap fill will occur on a particular day. Eat meat and not crumbs. Anyone telling you that they are timing it perfectly in every case isn't being truthful imo.