I don't think of it in terms of right or wrong, just different
groups with different goals. The Commercials are running businesses
that often require them to hedge forward -- either selling their
production for future delivery to guarantee cash flow or buying
forward to lock-in costs. The producers tend, though, to sell more
forward at extreme high prices and less near lows. The consumers,
obviously, buy more near lows and less near highs. Matt's long-term
data tracking looks for those extremes in the commercials,
especially the gold producers.
The non-commercials are speculators and want to be profitable
directionally. They crowd trades at extremes and will inevitably be
wrong at turns because they tend to herd. The Z-scores I put out,
show whether they are stretching the rubber band on 1 & 3 year
timeframes.
Does that help? Both are most helpful at extremes.
That vote is a crap shoot. The polls are 50-50 if you take the
range of error into account. So it's really an unpredictable binary
event that will best be traded after the fact. And now staying is
being priced in, so the risk shifts to the downside.
To restate the obvious, monetary and fiscal central planning
policies have crowded out investment, suppressed price discovery
and killed growth worldwide. Interest rates correlate to growth
rates.
US 10 year yield under Spain's now. There's been no reason for
US treasuries to be higher than any EU long bond for a long time
now. The fundamentals remain to the downside in rates. But trade
the technicals.
He only has about 150 indicators at this point, but the basic
sequential indicators from the 70s are pretty good. Who's going to
have access to them on this board, though? As the article points
out, you need to understand them well. I've talked with Jason Perl
before and have his book, but haven't had access to TD indicators
for a while. You may recall that Demark has had at least one pretty
big call fail in the latter part of this bull market. But are you
proposing to share signals or what?
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Nice. Pretty happy with gold
Volatility Reigns
Posted by a_l_ on 23rd of Jun 2016 at 09:07 pm
Nice. Pretty happy with gold in dollar terms as well.
I don't think of it
Haven't posted this in a while. Look at the consensus ...
Posted by a_l_ on 22nd of Jun 2016 at 09:59 am
I don't think of it in terms of right or wrong, just different groups with different goals. The Commercials are running businesses that often require them to hedge forward -- either selling their production for future delivery to guarantee cash flow or buying forward to lock-in costs. The producers tend, though, to sell more forward at extreme high prices and less near lows. The consumers, obviously, buy more near lows and less near highs. Matt's long-term data tracking looks for those extremes in the commercials, especially the gold producers.
The non-commercials are speculators and want to be profitable directionally. They crowd trades at extremes and will inevitably be wrong at turns because they tend to herd. The Z-scores I put out, show whether they are stretching the rubber band on 1 & 3 year timeframes.
Does that help? Both are most helpful at extremes.
Haven't posted this in a
Posted by a_l_ on 21st of Jun 2016 at 09:36 am
Haven't posted this in a while. Look at the consensus long ES. Huge week over week delta.
We're going to hit 110
ES 20 min futures - gap up
Posted by a_l_ on 20th of Jun 2016 at 11:18 am
We're going to hit 110 today. You're at 120, right?
That vote is a crap
ES 20 min futures - gap up
Posted by a_l_ on 20th of Jun 2016 at 10:47 am
That vote is a crap shoot. The polls are 50-50 if you take the range of error into account. So it's really an unpredictable binary event that will best be traded after the fact. And now staying is being priced in, so the risk shifts to the downside.
To restate the obvious, monetary
TLT Daily View
Posted by a_l_ on 16th of Jun 2016 at 10:52 am
To restate the obvious, monetary and fiscal central planning policies have crowded out investment, suppressed price discovery and killed growth worldwide. Interest rates correlate to growth rates.
US 10 year yield under
TLT Daily View
Posted by a_l_ on 16th of Jun 2016 at 10:40 am
US 10 year yield under Spain's now. There's been no reason for US treasuries to be higher than any EU long bond for a long time now. The fundamentals remain to the downside in rates. But trade the technicals.
Thanks for the detail, Matt.
SPY Pro system - detailed information
Posted by a_l_ on 15th of Jun 2016 at 09:13 pm
Thanks for the detail, Matt.
Got it. Used them in
Demark indicators
Posted by a_l_ on 15th of Jun 2016 at 05:35 pm
Got it. Used them in the past with the terminal; don't now and have comparable approaches.
He only has about 150
Demark indicators
Posted by a_l_ on 15th of Jun 2016 at 02:17 pm
He only has about 150 indicators at this point, but the basic sequential indicators from the 70s are pretty good. Who's going to have access to them on this board, though? As the article points out, you need to understand them well. I've talked with Jason Perl before and have his book, but haven't had access to TD indicators for a while. You may recall that Demark has had at least one pretty big call fail in the latter part of this bull market. But are you proposing to share signals or what?
Rates down is a factor
Gold is ignoring the strength in the dollar today
Posted by a_l_ on 9th of Jun 2016 at 11:55 pm
Rates down is a factor for gold; TLT up .65% today.
Rates down & dollar down is ideal.
Thanks, Steve! Looking forward to
Watchlist Demo
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Jun 2016 at 11:49 am
Thanks, Steve! Looking forward to it.
Just set up a short
ES futures roll over this week
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Jun 2016 at 11:47 am
Just set up a short term chart for each contract and roll when the volume becomes the majority in the front month.
Could also be related to
AET HUM UNH ripping today..have not seen news News Below: Aetna Bond ...
Posted by a_l_ on 2nd of Jun 2016 at 02:57 pm
Could also be related to UNH pulling out of almost all Obamacare exchanges and stopping the hemorrhage.
He's the one who donned
This...
Posted by a_l_ on 31st of May 2016 at 07:09 pm
He's the one who donned the wig. Not photoshopped.
Tim's finest moment
This...
Posted by a_l_ on 30th of May 2016 at 06:22 pm
Tim's finest moment
All the best to you
Steve congratulations on your 25th!
Posted by a_l_ on 26th of May 2016 at 02:14 pm
All the best to you and your wife on that milestone. Our 25th is in July.
Russell consolidation today
SPX 3 min
Posted by a_l_ on 25th of May 2016 at 03:45 pm
Russell consolidation today
Got it. No problem. Just
Equity Call Vol closed outside it's BB's today
Posted by a_l_ on 23rd of May 2016 at 08:58 pm
Got it. No problem. Just couldn't believe there was much change on a day like today.
Seeing middle of range on
Equity Call Vol closed outside it's BB's today
Posted by a_l_ on 23rd of May 2016 at 06:19 pm
Seeing middle of range on this link, as well as CPC. Is there another at an extreme?