Full gap fill for the cash market is 3,748 if it were to go there 

SPX Wells Fargo just gave their forecast, saying they think the S&P will finish at 4,200 after possibly going as low as 3,400. This would be in line with filling at least the two gaps below which I'm concerned about at 3,748 and 3,583. 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3917593-wells-fargo-sees-choppy-2023-with-early-selling-and-eventual-gains

SPX 3,904-05 tested and has held so far. Long and will average in some more if it were to drop more for swing account. I have 1/4 left of my hedge position in my swing account. Trading account only long now after great profits on my hedge. 

A lot of respect for you sharing this, Matt! Anyone in the game regularly takes their lumps, as you pointed out some days back, it is about the batting average in what makes someone successful over a period of time, be it a ball player, trader, etc. 

And not to mention, look at the performance of your track record this year with the systems and market calls, you have had a tremendous year, and helped a lot of people. There are many people who have had a very disappointing year and you actually have a lot of subscribers who have made good money, myself included. Thank you, Steve, and your team! 

I'm glad it was helpful, I've been tracking gaps for a few decades now. They keep me out of trouble and the risk/reward on my side. I know everyone is different, I won't trade on any day I don't have a specific plan in place. 

The answer was it was saved for after one of the economic events. 92% of gaps fill. They are a big part of making great entries for me and often align with target prices for buying and selling inventory. 

Gap filled, out all profits in my trading account on short side. Sold another partial in my other account for short hedge to trail on a swing. Added some long exposure there as well. Another great day. 

Matt, 

Will the Bear long take a 2nd entry if we get a negative close today or will it stop out? 

SPX wants that 3,934.35 gap I have been mentioning it seems. It is holding up for now. 3,938 low for the cash futures so far. Last time they held the gap up by 2 points and no fill in the cash market. I'm there if they want to take it there and pay me. If not, lets go higher, I make more if we do.

Free covid tests are back, order here: https://www.covid.gov/tests

TSLA I know some of you guys follow Tesla, morning news: 

Tesla (TSLA) – Tesla fell 1.2% in premarket trading after an SEC filing showed that Elon Musk sold another $3.6 billion in shares. The stock is down 55% year to date through Wednesday.

Source: CNBC

Ya, sentiment was at a 37 week low as of the other day, most negativity since 1987. The COT report had also indicated that the professional speculators were horribly positioned on a percentage basis, had added shorts, and reduced their longs. As we continue to see, they have been getting blown out repeatedly. Retail was actually more balanced on those readings. I don't get bogged down with all the reports, just play price in the main supply/demand areas and gap areas. Risk/reward. If I had to guess, I'd be buying into weakness for a rally for year end. I don't think the market is going to crash or fly high, same opinion since October for me. I respect that it can do whatever it wants. Some great trading opportunities lately. 

There is another gap forming now this morning of note from yesterday's close so far at 3,995.32, I would think they would want to run the market to at least 4,000 round by year end or more. Again, all just hitting them where they ain't and seasonality. I change when the message of the market changes. First gap below at 3,934.35. People got used to just shorting and now it isn't as easy. I do still carry concern for the gaps at 3,748 and 3,583 filling when seasonality resumes in 2023. This is a business and the big boys need a spread to operate from to make their money. So do I. I'll take what they give when they give it. Will be formulating my 2023 range for SPX again this year and see how that works out. 

If it heads that way, a gap at 3,934.35 that never filled is there. No idea on direction, will continue to take what they give at key supply and demand zones..and gap areas. 

SPX Sitting back watching the smaller part of the range and stops being run all over the board. My targets are at gap areas, supply, and demand areas, away from the noise. Can't play in the noise on a day like today, they will eat you alive. One target that hit for me today so far was the 3,990 gap fill (sold partial position there). I have some inventory left on both sides with great entry prices, though I'm not giving it away cheap. Pay up or I hold just on for another day when they do. Minimal volatility when I play this way. 

gap filled at 3,990.56 

Low of day so far is 3,993.03. For the first downside gap to fill it needs to get to 3,990.56. 

SPX 4,071.70 gap has filled. Next gap above at 4,110.41. A new gap has opened below at yesterday's close price 3,990.56. Next gap lower after that at 3,934.38. 

SPX re: sentiment-AAII has shown 37 consecutive weeks of negativity, the most since 1987. Charlie Bilello sited the other day. At some point, it gets stretched way too far. And the market changes its message as it has been doing since the big reversal. I remain with no changes to my long term inventory since those buys at extreme weakenss. Let's see how today goes, this is an important close for the market. It has been an amazing morning trading.

System open short trade? Matt, Will it close out today or hold?

Same question for the bear long.

Well done! I've traded around my positions as well on both sides.