AAII SENTIMENT bulls near lows of yeari while bears about highs
of the year. Can so many retail clients be right? For now maybe but
too many calling for weak first half of 2023.
Ya, sentiment was at a 37 week low as of the other day, most
negativity since 1987. The COT report had also indicated that the
professional speculators were horribly positioned on a percentage
basis, had added shorts, and reduced their longs. As we continue to
see, they have been getting blown out repeatedly. Retail was
actually more balanced on those readings. I don't get bogged down
with all the reports, just play price in the main supply/demand
areas and gap areas. Risk/reward. If I had to guess, I'd be buying
into weakness for a rally for year end. I don't think the market is
going to crash or fly high, same opinion since October for me. I
respect that it can do whatever it wants. Some great trading
opportunities lately.
There is another gap forming now this morning of note from
yesterday's close so far at 3,995.32, I would think they would want
to run the market to at least 4,000 round by year end or more.
Again, all just hitting them where they ain't and seasonality. I
change when the message of the market changes. First gap below at
3,934.35. People got used to just shorting and now it isn't as
easy. I do still carry concern for the gaps at 3,748 and 3,583
filling when seasonality resumes in 2023. This is a business and
the big boys need a spread to operate from to make their money. So
do I. I'll take what they give when they give it. Will be
formulating my 2023 range for SPX again this year and see how that
works out.
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AAII SENTIMENT bulls near lows
Posted by rbreese on 15th of Dec 2022 at 06:51 am
AAII SENTIMENT bulls near lows of yeari while bears about highs of the year. Can so many retail clients be right? For now maybe but too many calling for weak first half of 2023.
Ya, sentiment was at a
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 15th of Dec 2022 at 07:00 am
Ya, sentiment was at a 37 week low as of the other day, most negativity since 1987. The COT report had also indicated that the professional speculators were horribly positioned on a percentage basis, had added shorts, and reduced their longs. As we continue to see, they have been getting blown out repeatedly. Retail was actually more balanced on those readings. I don't get bogged down with all the reports, just play price in the main supply/demand areas and gap areas. Risk/reward. If I had to guess, I'd be buying into weakness for a rally for year end. I don't think the market is going to crash or fly high, same opinion since October for me. I respect that it can do whatever it wants. Some great trading opportunities lately.
There is another gap forming now this morning of note from yesterday's close so far at 3,995.32, I would think they would want to run the market to at least 4,000 round by year end or more. Again, all just hitting them where they ain't and seasonality. I change when the message of the market changes. First gap below at 3,934.35. People got used to just shorting and now it isn't as easy. I do still carry concern for the gaps at 3,748 and 3,583 filling when seasonality resumes in 2023. This is a business and the big boys need a spread to operate from to make their money. So do I. I'll take what they give when they give it. Will be formulating my 2023 range for SPX again this year and see how that works out.