Any truths that exist will morph as the dominance of daily options continues to grow at a blistering pace. Today and tomorrow are not really comparable to a year ago and we might as well be in a completely different world from 5 years ago.  Options really have become THE dominant force in markets...and now we're dealing with daily expirations...but it's still a relatively new phenomenon so we shouldn't think we know all the risks yet. There will be unexpected events and growing pains because of the internal changes in market structure and drivers.

I think of it in terms of notional value (probably because I'm an options trader) and it's mind-blowing.  Think about how a bank makes a loan and it increases the money supply (you don't need the Fed or Treasury to increase money supply - bank loans create money). Now take the options market and think about participants creating almost unlimited notional positions on both sides of an underlying, but many many times larger notional value than the value of the underlying itself.  The notional value of the options market is much much larger than the combined value of the underlying assets. Most popular assets can now be levered via ETF's where traders create the leverage with complex option positions. What could possibly go wrong?  

NFLX - looks like the part I got right was that the boost from password sharing crackdown is going to play out at some point. The are not going to be reporting sub adds after this quarter (I wonder why. Haha). 

I've had CNBC on for the last 30 minutes or so. Bulls on parade still - some things never change.  NFLX definitely going up today and Tom Lee is pushing small caps. 

You must live in a red state? As someone who has spent most of my life exposed to blue, I'm all to familiar with situations where a Gov person applies for the rental with no intention of being the renter...and then will potentially sue you if you don't accept the application. At the end of the day, these people aren't messing around. They are going to get their way and that includes not letting homeowners be choosy about who they rent to.

But I agree on the homebuilder thesis. 

Hard to say exactly how the dealers are positioned vs the street, but either way, the exposure at the 5K level for this OPEX is WILD. 

The way I currently understand it, it will have a tendency to accelerate as it pushes past 5K towards 4980 because dealers will be forced to sell into the move to hedge their short put exposure.  That's assuming the street is net long 5K puts. Maybe they are net short puts because that's been a major trend recently? That would still cause an acceleration most likely because covering puts would lead to VIX spike.  Most likely outcome is a pin, but if it flips, it could get rough fast. 

Gamma going to throw a fit if we push below 5000 before the massive OPEX tomorrow. 

All I can say is that I'm so glad my rental property is in Hawaii and not near downtown Honolulu or the airport (I'd guess they are giving many migrants free plane tickets to HI at this point). But I'm still planning to sell as soon as I have a window between tenants.  Can you imagine having a rental in any mainland city experiencing a migrant crisis (most major mainland cities) and "families" of 10 - 15 applying to live in your 2 bedroom?  

NYSE VOLD slipped negative 3 minutes ago. NQ still at 1.7 (weak, but postive)

DXYZ - anyone in buy and hold mode on this name (I was but not anymore) should at least check out Bob Elliots set of X posts about it.  

I got out with about a 50% gain. Thanks Shellson! 

I was looking at the fundamentals for this the other day and was like WTF?  Is it really that popular?  I don't get it.  It's empty whenever I go to the mall (rarely). 

NFLX pricing in a massive earnings move today.  I don't have a good feel for it one way or another.  I think the password sharing crackdown was the right move at the right time, but that boost is going to play out at some point. I cancelled my membership as I have been looking to pare unnecessary sub costs and only have time for 1 streaming service at a time (I'll rotate back at some point).  Households with kids probably stuck with multiple, but now > than 50% of Americans are single and very few having kids. The long SAG strike didn't help. They haven't been updating shows...

Rev projections are HIGH and it's already expensive. They will probably get whacked if they don't beat and raise. 

I still have VOLD at 1.75 (but not ramping higher) and and upward sloping ADL.  

The 1.75 is NYSE. NQ is 2.2. 

Sliced right through session VWAP. Now at -1 sigma line.  My strategy for the BPT reversion to mean trades on the long side (market downtrending) is to sell short dated SPX put spreads. I have some expiring tomorrow and some Monday and Tuesday.  4960 is current line in the sand for me, but I have the rolls teed up if the market gets anywhere near those levels (roll to 4920 expiring next Wednesday).

Internals still relatively positive. Until they flip, my assumption is that the big boys are baiting in as many shorts as they can before making a decent run higher.

12? It's at 8 and they're about to have their revenue slashed by 40% (that's the historical average after halving).  Holy bejeezus.  12 would be awesome. BTC would probably be at like 140K if that happened. 

SPX 2m - looks like completed ABC (or we're in b of C?). Internals still positive. It almost recycled back to touch session VWAP...maybe it still will.

KRE - my previous posts on this have been aging well     The weekly has a big H&S look.  However, if that triggers, I think QE also triggers....which means buy buy buy.  There are already some shenanigans going on in the background to prop it up (Global central bank liquidity readings say as much), but when they go open kimono about it again it will mean they are flooding the zone and that's when I will be running into whatever assets I can find that inflate while they incernate cash (again). 

SPX - internals confirming rally mode (even with the dump just now). VOLD = 3.4 and steadily ramping higher.  ADL sloping higher. 

HQY (daily) - this one makes me feel like I'm fishing and have a bunch of nibbles, but I don't want to try and set the hook too quickly (but way more annoying).  Haha. Will take a shot on a close above 82.