Leading economic indicators have just gone through a record period of recession readings without a recession.  Biden has painted the Fed into a corner. The American economy is not strong but the readings they are getting for consumer spending, inflation and jobs don't agree because they are flooding the country with cheap labor and handing illegal immigrants debit cards which they spend nearly immediately...all of which gooses the numbers the Fed follows in a positive direction, leaving Americans feeling confused.

The best thing the Fed could do is be honest about the battle they are having with both the fiscal spending and illegal immigration and how it's warping the numbers....but that doesn't seem to be a political option. 

I used to trade BTC in Coinbase, but it's too expensive to scalp so I switched to HODL in that account (.4% per side base commissions is ridiculous and essentially impossible to profitably scalp). I don't want to give up my Coinbase positions completely because it allows me a way to transfer to my hardware wallet / cold storage.  For trading, I now use IBIT in my retirement accounts. 

Crypto - people digested the QRA announcement today and seemed to decide BTC was a buy.

IBIT still trading penny wide spreads at this time.

You know Elon is off the blue team when Mike Santelli comes on to CNBC and makes a bear case against TSLA after today's move. CNBC never says bad things about any stocks. Haha.

I totally agree with him. Just caught me off guard to hear anything but a pump piece on a popular company. 

Nice overview. Agree that the liquidity wave from TGA is coming and it's going to be huge on top of an already liquid environment.  Wealth redistribution in turbo mode..but not the redistribution you normally think of - this time it's to ITA, SMH, XLK and XLC components. I don't think there's a company in those ETF's where the Gov isn't their largest customer. 

DELL - I was considering a long but WTF is up with the fundamentals?  

1. 35 PEG!

2. Declining Q/Q and annual sales (not just slower sales growth - negative growth) BUT EPS growth for the quarter is 90% and 35% annually. How does that work?

Something doesn't add up. Poster child for the market. Something doesn't feel right, but it's hard to put a finger on it.  In Dell's case, their largest customer is the Federal Gov (they are completely embedded into NMCI) but all the juice coming in from us taxpayers should show up in sales...

I don't trust your analysis for my work, Matt. Sorry. I only trust my own so any "preferred counts" are my own. I often look at your ideas, but all final analysis and trades I make are 100% my own and my full responsibility.

We happened to be mostly in agreement around the time I'm thinking of, but that's not always the case, and that's fine. And even then, your analysis had started to shift slightly before mine. 

Some of you guys might have forgotten about the preferred wave count getting completely blown out of the water last year, but I will probably be thinking about that one for many years.  Lesson learned but it's still a bit raw.  The mistake, again, was underestimating the money printing. 

I agree....as long as they keep printing like this, the crash risk is to the upside...and they haven't even mentioned that they are concerned so we have to expect it will continue.  I think there's a higher than average potential that the wave count gets blown out again like it did last year. Any move down is fighting against MASSIVE global stimulus levels and the entire globe essentially panicking into whatever assets they can find that seem likely to hold up to the money printing onslaught.  

I am licensed, but I'm not any of your financial advisor (no contract)  Plus, FA's don't have an edge, per say. Maybe if I was a CFA instead of a CFP, but it's still incredibly complicated to figure out economics and markets and even the best of the best get some calls wrong.

I'm being careful about reducing exposure to BTC (and everything else) and quick to get back in on whipsaws. There is a potential double whammy coming this week in the form of QRA that will likely keep duration short and borrowing projections at current levels or higher and then the Fed is likely to announce they are cutting QT in half or possibly suspending it completely (it might be buried in the notes, like it was 2 meetings ago but it's probably coming).  The short duration move already effectively sterilized QT, so continuing with that bonkers strategy plus a reduced or eliminated QT will be like throwing a christmas tree on a campfire.  Definitely the potential for an emerging market style debt fueled rally of epic proportions. 

BA recovery idea seems a lot like waiting for Amtrak to recover. Once you go down the quasi governmental , unionized path with most of your leadership coming from a military and Gov background, it's really hard to maintain quality levels.  You would think the military background would be beneficial, but as someone with 20 years experience, there's nothing more socialist than the military. They don't deal with profit targets, etc.and the internal culture is very much about protecting the image at all costs no matter what. Whistleblower complaints from inside the military also do not go over well.

TSLA is getting the map from Baidu as part of the deal with China.Sounds like a forced marriage that could prove to be disastrous. Remember AAPL maps? Nothing is worse than Siri but their maps are horrible. What are the chances China can resist the urge to tweak the maps for propoganda reasons?  Map makers have been doing that since ever since but it's a little different when it's being used by a computer to drive people around.

I'm back to a standard allocation on TSLA. Crazy move today. I think it's overdone and just an extension of the Short squeeze that began with bad earnings but FSD deal with China does potentially open the door to Cathie Wood's 2k price target based on robo taxi rollout. Currency intervention overnight also helping TSLA.

FXY - it looks like the intervention is finally happening. I would guess it's a coordinated effort between the trilateral group that met in DC the week before last, but we'll never know for sure.