Tracking error exists even in unleveraged ETFs, but
usually to a lesser extent than leveraged ones. Those who
bought SH on Oct 10 are currently worse off than those who shorted
SPY (SPY down 2.5%, SH up only 1.5%), as of yesterday's
close. Tracking error can also work in your favour, depending
on which ETF you happen to use and how you use it
(buy/short). Those who shorted SSO (2X bear) on Oct
10 are currently better off than those who bought SDS (2X
bear). As of yesterday's close, SSO is down 6.0%, which is
more than twice as much as the S&P500 and SPY are down.
By contrast, SDS is up only 2.2%. Hindsight is 20/20, of
course. Trade duration, market direction and volatility
cannot be known in advance, so there's luck involved in choosing
the "best" ETF for a particular trade and in choosing how to use
it. If you want to use leveraged ETFs in order to have more
cash available for other things, it's probably best to be
consistent in which ETF you use and how you use it. Over the
long-term, a consistent approach should reduce the effect of
tracking error. It will work in your favour for some trades
and against you for others. Your long-term profit and risk
should be similar to the system performance. If you don't
want more cash on hand, then buying and shorting SPY will
mirror system performance most closely of course.
Y'all might already know this, but... as an alternative to
trading unleveraged ETFs (SPY, SH), you could trade
double-leveraged ETFs (SSO, SDS), investing half as much money in
the double-leveraged ETF as you would in the unleveraged one.
The benefit is that by investing half as much, you have that
much more cash available for whatever. Or take it one
step further with triple-leveraged ETFs (UPRO, SPXU), investing
one-third as much as usual, leaving you with more cash.
1% of $100,000 = 2% of $50,000 = 3% of $33,333.33 =
$1,000. With a short-term trading system (e.g. BPT
SPY System), each of these approaches should produce a similar
long-term profit with similar risk.
Cheers!
(For informational purposes only; not to be interpreted as
investment advice; proceed at your own risk; past performance
does not guarantee future success, etc.)
freeswim - In Matt's video, he shows trade examples going
back to June 2006. These examples are almost identical to the
ones in the SPY Section. Watch the video from 5:58 to 6:35
(it moves quickly - hit pause if necessary). Hope this helps
a bit.
frtaylor - I think you're right about Matt's system involving
zero crossovers. However, randy's idea about 8 ema crossovers
seems to get you into trades earlier than the zero crossover.
Unfortunately, it also seems to generate a lot of whipsaws when the
histogram is extended (see July 26 to August 5). Any ideas
about how to handle those?
billnew52 - I've never used ZJG.TO, but according to the issuer,
"BMO Junior Gold Index ETF has been designed to replicate, to the
extent possible, the performance of the Dow Jones North America
Select Junior Gold Index", which is all component stocks of the Dow
Jones U.S. Total Stock Market IndexSM and the Dow Jones Canada
Total Stock Market IndexSM that are categorized into the Gold
Mining Subsector as defined by the Industry Classification
Benchmark (ICB). Here's a link to the index fact sheet:
http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/fact_info/Dow_Jones_North_America_Select_Junior_Gold_Index_Fact_Sheet.pdf Note: ZJG is highly illiquid (<100,000 shares/day).
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Mortgages in Canada
Vancouver Canada real estate prices
Posted by yojimbo on 4th of Mar 2012 at 04:38 pm
I live in Toronto, have a mortgage on a house here. Here are two Canadian mortgage websites I check regularly:
Lowest Rates: http://www.ratebot.ca/lowestrates.php
Mortgage News: http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/
Cheerio!
variable = adjustable
I think the 60-minute table
GDX Renko system, and 60 min chart comments
Posted by yojimbo on 5th of Jan 2012 at 12:49 pm
I think the 60-minute table reflects using STO to time buys and sells (and shorts and covering shorts).
jlevinthal - I believe the
GDX Renko system, and 60 min chart comments
Posted by yojimbo on 5th of Jan 2012 at 11:48 am
jlevinthal - I believe the %G/L for each 62.82 buy is shown on the next line down: 0.3% (sold at 62.99) and 1.7% (sold at 63.89).
sorry - should be SSO
ETF Traders - SPY, SH, SSO, SDS,...
Posted by yojimbo on 25th of Nov 2011 at 12:12 pm
sorry - should be SSO (2X bull)
Tracking error exists even in unleveraged ETFs,
ETF Traders - SPY, SH, SSO, SDS,...
Posted by yojimbo on 25th of Nov 2011 at 11:37 am
Tracking error exists even in unleveraged ETFs, but usually to a lesser extent than leveraged ones. Those who bought SH on Oct 10 are currently worse off than those who shorted SPY (SPY down 2.5%, SH up only 1.5%), as of yesterday's close. Tracking error can also work in your favour, depending on which ETF you happen to use and how you use it (buy/short). Those who shorted SSO (2X bear) on Oct 10 are currently better off than those who bought SDS (2X bear). As of yesterday's close, SSO is down 6.0%, which is more than twice as much as the S&P500 and SPY are down. By contrast, SDS is up only 2.2%. Hindsight is 20/20, of course. Trade duration, market direction and volatility cannot be known in advance, so there's luck involved in choosing the "best" ETF for a particular trade and in choosing how to use it. If you want to use leveraged ETFs in order to have more cash available for other things, it's probably best to be consistent in which ETF you use and how you use it. Over the long-term, a consistent approach should reduce the effect of tracking error. It will work in your favour for some trades and against you for others. Your long-term profit and risk should be similar to the system performance. If you don't want more cash on hand, then buying and shorting SPY will mirror system performance most closely of course.
Peace.
ETF Traders - SPY, SH, SSO, SDS,...
Posted by yojimbo on 24th of Nov 2011 at 05:23 pm
Y'all might already know this, but... as an alternative to trading unleveraged ETFs (SPY, SH), you could trade double-leveraged ETFs (SSO, SDS), investing half as much money in the double-leveraged ETF as you would in the unleveraged one. The benefit is that by investing half as much, you have that much more cash available for whatever. Or take it one step further with triple-leveraged ETFs (UPRO, SPXU), investing one-third as much as usual, leaving you with more cash.
1% of $100,000 = 2% of $50,000 = 3% of $33,333.33 = $1,000. With a short-term trading system (e.g. BPT SPY System), each of these approaches should produce a similar long-term profit with similar risk.
Cheers!
(For informational purposes only; not to be interpreted as investment advice; proceed at your own risk; past performance does not guarantee future success, etc.)
nice poem - it was
USD and Gold holding up
Posted by yojimbo on 15th of Nov 2011 at 12:48 pm
nice poem - it was almost a haiku!
freeswim - In Matt's video, he
IMPORTANT - SPY System Newsletter
Posted by yojimbo on 13th of Nov 2011 at 10:05 am
freeswim - In Matt's video, he shows trade examples going back to June 2006. These examples are almost identical to the ones in the SPY Section. Watch the video from 5:58 to 6:35 (it moves quickly - hit pause if necessary). Hope this helps a bit.
current multi-entry trade
Posted by yojimbo on 9th of Nov 2011 at 04:12 pm
...moved into profitable territory again today. Average entry price is approx. 123.17. SPY low for today was 122.86.
0.4 X 119.58 + 0.2 X 122.57 + 0.2 X 125.49 + 0.2 X 128.63 = 123.17
The multi-entry history shows thirteen 4th
oops...
Posted by yojimbo on 27th of Oct 2011 at 03:49 pm
The multi-entry history shows thirteen 4th entries. Only one was a loser (-0.89%, Aug 4-15, 2011).
refresh your page
5 min SPX
Posted by yojimbo on 27th of Oct 2011 at 02:29 pm
refresh your page
VIX = vomit index? I
judging by.....
Posted by yojimbo on 27th of Oct 2011 at 02:21 pm
VIX = vomit index? I like it.
Title: marketguy, I sent you
was looking....
Posted by yojimbo on 25th of Oct 2011 at 10:17 am
...a couple of days ago. I was wondering if you got it. Thanks.
Shorting SPY above 121.97 would have
Spy Swing System Alert
Posted by yojimbo on 12th of Oct 2011 at 05:06 pm
Shorting SPY above 121.97 would have given a nice daytrade. This strategy was discussed here a few months ago (?June).
Thanks, Angelo. Also, RSI(14) stayed below
I sold my SH last friday during the day with ...
Posted by yojimbo on 28th of Sep 2011 at 01:17 pm
Thanks, Angelo. Also, RSI(14) stayed below 50 for that whole time.
frtaylor - I think you're
I sold my SH last friday during the day with ...
Posted by yojimbo on 27th of Sep 2011 at 05:49 pm
frtaylor - I think you're right about Matt's system involving zero crossovers. However, randy's idea about 8 ema crossovers seems to get you into trades earlier than the zero crossover. Unfortunately, it also seems to generate a lot of whipsaws when the histogram is extended (see July 26 to August 5). Any ideas about how to handle those?
Here's a reference to the system: http://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/174601/
As they say, "In a
A little manna from heaven here in the last 1/2 ...
Posted by yojimbo on 27th of Sep 2011 at 04:11 pm
As they say, "In a bear market, surprises are to the downside", although I cannot rule out divine intervention.
Brian Mulroney was (and still
SVM - The plot thickens
Posted by yojimbo on 13th of Sep 2011 at 01:45 pm
Brian Mulroney was (and still is) on the Board of Directors for Barrick, which was one of the suitors for Bre-X.
billnew52 - I've never used
GDX -- Goldstocks
Posted by yojimbo on 9th of Sep 2011 at 09:33 am
billnew52 - I've never used ZJG.TO, but according to the issuer, "BMO Junior Gold Index ETF has been designed to replicate, to the extent possible, the performance of the Dow Jones North America Select Junior Gold Index", which is all component stocks of the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market IndexSM and the Dow Jones Canada Total Stock Market IndexSM that are categorized into the Gold Mining Subsector as defined by the Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB). Here's a link to the index fact sheet:
http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/fact_info/Dow_Jones_North_America_Select_Junior_Gold_Index_Fact_Sheet.pdf
Note: ZJG is highly illiquid (<100,000 shares/day).
Hear, hear!
GS catching a bid
Posted by yojimbo on 8th of Sep 2011 at 11:23 am
Hear, hear!