Matt - In case we don't hear from you for a few days - Best of luck to you and your wife for a safe delivery and a healthy baby!

zwyss - I'm going with the 4-entry system and 58/27/9/6 weighting, inspired by one of your previous posts.  This weighting seems to have such internal harmony.  Are you a Zen master?  I will change this weighting dynamically.  I realize that by allocating more to the earlier entry signals (58/27/9/6 vs. 40/20/20/20), I'm increasing my potential reward as well as my potential risk.  Also, no stop-losses for me.  I'm very comfortable with the back-tested losing trade stats, even though they will be marginally different for my weighting.

just watched the video - thanks Matt for the improvement to Current Trade section!

HSU and HSD not very liquid.  50,000 to 200,000 shares traded per day.  just so you know.

In search of the holy grail, eh?  Have a good evening!

aharon - as per the trade history for the multi-entry system, 58% of the trades had only 1 entry signal.  If you ignored the 1st entry signal in hopes of getting a 2nd entry signal, you would likely miss more than half the trades.

Susan - as per the trade history for the multi-entry system: 58% of the trades had only 1 entry (40%), 27% had 2 entries (40+20), 15% had 3 or 4 entries.  Hopefully this helps you.

Matt - are you able to easily generate the statistics for a 4-entry system: 55%, 15%, 15%, 15%?  If you don't want to go there, no worries.  The possibilities are endless.

Susan - Assuming you were in a position to take a profit on the 1st entry (no guarantee that you would be), there is no guarantee that there would be a 2nd entry (or 3rd or 4th) and you could be shut out of the trade.

stefano59,

To see what the largest drawdown for the single-entry system was, go to the Single Entry Overview/Statistics tab, then scroll down to Run-Up/Drawdown.  It shows the largest drawdown is $10,041.50.  That's about 10% (of $100,000).  It also shows that this drawdown occurred on March 6, 2009.  To see this drawdown on Matt's screen capture, go to the Single Entry Trade Examples tab and then find the long trade that was entered on Feb 23, 2009.  At the close on Feb 23, the system bought 1330 shares of SPY @ $74.65 = $99,284.50.  On March 6, at the low of the day ($67.10), those shares were worth $89,243.00  (1330 @ $67.10).  That's a drawdown of $10,041.50 (99,284.50 - 89,243.00).

Of course, this is no guarantee that the system will not have a larger drawdown in the future.

Matt has a flair for the dramatic.

Today's trade alert is under the "Current Trade" tab in the SPY SWING SYSTEM section of BPT website.

Will GDX be >3% above its 200-day MA?

Someone asked why the multi-entry system did not scale into trade #403.  Has that question been answered?

Matt posted some statistics and a video comparing SSO to SPY.  You can find his post by doing a search on keywords "substituting SSO".

The answer to your question (and many others) can be found by clicking on "SPY SWING SYSTEM" on the left-side menu, then "FAQ" (The FAQ section is a must read)

Q:How will I be notified of when the System issues Trades/Signals?
A: All subscribers to this system will be notified via email as well as SMS text message (if you have this service set up for your cell phone) to check the Professional Level SPY Swing System portion of the BreakpointTrades.com website.  The system trades/signals will be placed on the "Current Trade" tab within that portion of the website.  The system signals WILL NOT be emailed or sent via SMS text.  

Cubby - totally agree with you.  I hope Matt doesn't decide to take his very promising looking system away from us because of the whining.  Frankly, I expected the subscription price to be higher than it is, and I suspect that those who delay in signing up will regret that they did.

twedlediva,

Drawdown is not necessarily the same as the largest losing trade.  Go to the Single Entry Overview/Statistics tab, then scroll down to Run-Up/Drawdown.  It shows the largest drawdown is $10,041.50.  That's about 10% (of $100,000).  It also shows that this drawdown occurred on March 6, 2009.  To see this drawdown on Matt's screen capture, go to the Single Entry Trade Examples tab and then find the long trade that was entered on Feb 23, 2009.  At the close on Feb 23, the system bought 1330 shares of SPY @ $74.65 = $99,284.50.  On March 6, at the low of the day ($67.10), those shares were worth $89,243.00  (1330 @ $67.10).  That's a drawdown of $10,041.50 (99,284.50 - 89,243.00).  Between Feb 23 and Mar 6 (9 trading days), the value of 1330 shares went from $99,284.50 to $89,243.00, which is more than a 10% drop.  If you had invested approx $99,284.50 on Feb 23, could you stomach being down by $10,041.50 in a matter of days.  And what if you had started with $1,000,000 on Feb 23?  Could you stomach being down by more than $100,000 on Mar 6?  Drawdown - See what I mean, jelly bean?

It depends on how many dollars you are committing, what percentage of your portfolio it represents, and how much risk you can tolerate.  The largest drawdown since 1994 is 10% (single entry), but that is no guarantee that there will not be a larger drawdown in the future.  Will you stick with the system if your $1,000,000 turns into $900,000 or less in a matter of days?

TS means TradeStation