Goldstocks have had a good run and it seems to me that a lot of
experts are not sure if gold stocks have broken out and will go up
a lot further or if goldstocks will continue to go sideways and the
next bigger leg will be down.
When looking at goldstock indexes the answer is not clear, the
same when looking at ETF's. GDX has already broken out, GDXJ
not. It seems that a lot of bigger miners have had a very good run
and need a rest, but lots of smaller stocks are about to break out
or are even still in downtrends (especially penny stocks). I own
some small caps and I am sitting on a loss on most of them, but
finally, some of them are moving or sometimes sprinting to the
right direction. Could be that finally smallcaps are also
participating in this goldbullmarket.
I'm also not sure what to do. I'm sure that in the long term
goldstocks will be much higher so I own quite a few miners. But I'm
not sure wether someone should buy or sell in the short term. I'm
leaning to the opinion that setbacks will be only samll and are
buying opportunities.
I'm still believing that I'm right with the count in the chart
below and we are in a wave 3 that should go to at least 75 in the
next weeks. That would mean that lots of gold stocks will break out
soon (or already have) and lots of smallcaps will break their
downtrends/consolidations.
I also see a lot of goldstocks on the watchlist.
I think the next couple of days are important for
goldstockbears. They should bring down goldstocks quite a bit or
they lose a lot of money
Important point on the low priced juniors-some will not make it
or will do share consolidation due to overdilution at low prices,
they simply run out of money. Others will go to the moon if their
drill encounters significant mineralization. Others have a
bona-fide deposit with potential, and/or have property adjacent to
an elephant deposit, such as FIS.V. These are usually takeover
targets. Use caution if a company has issued shares in the 100
million range and their stock still trades for pennies...
I own all of them and I while other stocks in my portfolio
performed well, all those small caps are in the red. I'm confident
that sooner or later I will sell all of them with a gain.
Has anyone used ZJG.to instead of GDXJ for the Juniors? I
understand it is more of a pure gold ETF unlike GDXJ which has some
silver miners. Would appreciate thoughts.
billnew52 - I've never used ZJG.TO, but according to the issuer,
"BMO Junior Gold Index ETF has been designed to replicate, to the
extent possible, the performance of the Dow Jones North America
Select Junior Gold Index", which is all component stocks of the Dow
Jones U.S. Total Stock Market IndexSM and the Dow Jones Canada
Total Stock Market IndexSM that are categorized into the Gold
Mining Subsector as defined by the Industry Classification
Benchmark (ICB). Here's a link to the index fact sheet:
http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/fact_info/Dow_Jones_North_America_Select_Junior_Gold_Index_Fact_Sheet.pdf Note: ZJG is highly illiquid (<100,000 shares/day).
Posted by dallassteve on 9th of Sep 2011 at 08:49 am
I agree that gold is a slam dunk. It started as a gut
feeling for me, ten years ago, but now many think it is obvious.
I trust physical gold in my possession, however. I
trade in and out of GDX. I now use the GDX mechanical system
here. When there is a good setup in GDX, I will also look at
individual miners and see which of them look most promising for a
move. Matt helps out with some ideas.
Zwyss: Similar perspective and position to you. I believe
the unraveling of the world-wide financial house of cards is
beginning to accelerate. That's not from a technical
perspective, but rather what my gut says. I've learned to
trust my instincts.
When the world finally wakes up and realizes the US is the
biggest ponzi scheme of all, investors will flee those "safe"
treasuries, the dollar will tumble and gold (and yes, the gold
mining stocks) will soar. IMHO, this outcome is a slam dunk,
only a matter of when, not if. Until we get there though,
expect continued frustration from time to time, as the anti-gold
contingent have too much at stake to simply throw in the
towel.
For what its worth, I too sense the momentum is edging to the
upside for those of us invested in the mining sector. The
wait may be hard, but the final payoff should be spectacular.
yes FIGO, could be a c-wave to 1700, but maybe it's an ascending
triangle and Gold will break out again soon and hard, maybe even
today (but if so probably early next week).
I think everything could happen today, a huge beatdown (maybe
another manipulation of the market by the big boys....) or a huge
rally (maybe caused by short covering). We will see
GDX -- Goldstocks
Posted by zwyss on 9th of Sep 2011 at 05:56 am
Goldstocks have had a good run and it seems to me that a lot of experts are not sure if gold stocks have broken out and will go up a lot further or if goldstocks will continue to go sideways and the next bigger leg will be down.
When looking at goldstock indexes the answer is not clear, the same when looking at ETF's. GDX has already broken out, GDXJ not. It seems that a lot of bigger miners have had a very good run and need a rest, but lots of smaller stocks are about to break out or are even still in downtrends (especially penny stocks). I own some small caps and I am sitting on a loss on most of them, but finally, some of them are moving or sometimes sprinting to the right direction. Could be that finally smallcaps are also participating in this goldbullmarket.
I'm also not sure what to do. I'm sure that in the long term goldstocks will be much higher so I own quite a few miners. But I'm not sure wether someone should buy or sell in the short term. I'm leaning to the opinion that setbacks will be only samll and are buying opportunities.
I'm still believing that I'm right with the count in the chart below and we are in a wave 3 that should go to at least 75 in the next weeks. That would mean that lots of gold stocks will break out soon (or already have) and lots of smallcaps will break their downtrends/consolidations.
I also see a lot of goldstocks on the watchlist.
I think the next couple of days are important for goldstockbears. They should bring down goldstocks quite a bit or they lose a lot of money
Opinions?
Junior Miners
Posted by mp9ca on 9th of Sep 2011 at 11:39 am
Important point on the low priced juniors-some will not make it or will do share consolidation due to overdilution at low prices, they simply run out of money. Others will go to the moon if their drill encounters significant mineralization. Others have a bona-fide deposit with potential, and/or have property adjacent to an elephant deposit, such as FIS.V. These are usually takeover targets. Use caution if a company has issued shares in the 100 million range and their stock still trades for pennies...
small goldstocks
Posted by zwyss on 9th of Sep 2011 at 09:07 am
while GDX went to a new high, lots of small stocks are lagging and are still in downtrends like
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gyg.v
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=vit.v
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=lexvf
or are still quite low or/but already in early stages of a new uptrend like
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gbn.v
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ec.v
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ngm.v
I own all of them and I while other stocks in my portfolio performed well, all those small caps are in the red. I'm confident that sooner or later I will sell all of them with a gain.
ZJG.to
Posted by billnew52 on 9th of Sep 2011 at 09:17 am
Has anyone used ZJG.to instead of GDXJ for the Juniors? I understand it is more of a pure gold ETF unlike GDXJ which has some silver miners. Would appreciate thoughts.
THX
billnew52 - I've never used
Posted by yojimbo on 9th of Sep 2011 at 09:33 am
billnew52 - I've never used ZJG.TO, but according to the issuer, "BMO Junior Gold Index ETF has been designed to replicate, to the extent possible, the performance of the Dow Jones North America Select Junior Gold Index", which is all component stocks of the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market IndexSM and the Dow Jones Canada Total Stock Market IndexSM that are categorized into the Gold Mining Subsector as defined by the Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB). Here's a link to the index fact sheet:
http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/fact_info/Dow_Jones_North_America_Select_Junior_Gold_Index_Fact_Sheet.pdf
Note: ZJG is highly illiquid (<100,000 shares/day).
ZJG.to
Posted by billnew52 on 9th of Sep 2011 at 09:52 am
Thanks for the excellent info.
Bill
long term gold
Posted by dallassteve on 9th of Sep 2011 at 08:49 am
I agree that gold is a slam dunk. It started as a gut feeling for me, ten years ago, but now many think it is obvious. I trust physical gold in my possession, however. I trade in and out of GDX. I now use the GDX mechanical system here. When there is a good setup in GDX, I will also look at individual miners and see which of them look most promising for a move. Matt helps out with some ideas.
Title: GDX Zwyss: Similar perspective and
Posted by RichieD on 9th of Sep 2011 at 06:43 am
Zwyss: Similar perspective and position to you. I believe the unraveling of the world-wide financial house of cards is beginning to accelerate. That's not from a technical perspective, but rather what my gut says. I've learned to trust my instincts.
When the world finally wakes up and realizes the US is the biggest ponzi scheme of all, investors will flee those "safe" treasuries, the dollar will tumble and gold (and yes, the gold mining stocks) will soar. IMHO, this outcome is a slam dunk, only a matter of when, not if. Until we get there though, expect continued frustration from time to time, as the anti-gold contingent have too much at stake to simply throw in the towel.
For what its worth, I too sense the momentum is edging to the upside for those of us invested in the mining sector. The wait may be hard, but the final payoff should be spectacular.
Gold is down, dollar is up , equities are down and bonds are down pre market
Posted by zach06 on 9th of Sep 2011 at 07:02 am
go figure
GOLD IS DOWN
Posted by FIGO on 9th of Sep 2011 at 08:39 am
Gold is in Wave C correction,should retest the lows of Wave A ($1,705) or lower
However this wave C is very Volatile
yes FIGO, could be a
Posted by zwyss on 9th of Sep 2011 at 08:52 am
yes FIGO, could be a c-wave to 1700, but maybe it's an ascending triangle and Gold will break out again soon and hard, maybe even today (but if so probably early next week).
I think everything could happen today, a huge beatdown (maybe another manipulation of the market by the big boys....) or a huge rally (maybe caused by short covering). We will see
Gold
Posted by superdupa on 9th of Sep 2011 at 10:38 am
Bought my first at $1.25 an oz