In the cycle, QQQ over a sustained period rising faster than the SPYs or DIAs is bullish so I would expect SPYs and DIAs to play catch up

bashing...Matts word originally not mine. In any area in life whether it be work, sport, social, family or other, sharing experiences good and bad helps nurture and develop oneself. I share experiences with my children every day both good and bad. If I only share good experiences with them, then they will not know the good from the bad and what to avoid as they develop. I would rather they learn from my bad experiences or emperical research I have (eg don't eat too many sweets because it messes up your teeth and you will end up getting diabetes) rather than them find out after the event and have only a rear view mirror to look at

Maybe this will explain better the value in providing information both good and bad on not just this forum but in any walk of life

Thanks Russ. This is the type of objective testing which allows traders to make informed judgements on what is viable and not viable to use

So the next step is for a trader to take the good work of Steven, add on one additional variable at a time and retest the sample size to see if there is any improvement.

My bottom line is that every indicator has its 15seconds of glory but there is a requirement to objectively test this with other indicators to identify if there is any winning combination. Otherwise, there is every likelihood of a classic visual illusion from reviewing this or other indicators/patterns that so often happens

Hence my stance on trading objectively and nothing but objectively

The other question that arises is that I recall the newsletter mentioning the reliability of the Evening Star pattern as being high. Under what premise/research was this conclusion made given what analysis is available here? Not a question for you Russ. Moreso of an observation

Good post again Russ!

Hi. Stockcharts has some great predefined scan results of which one is Evening Star patterns. As of close of trade yesterday, BIDU isn't listed in the stocks forming ES Patterns. However thats stockcharts criteria and I don't personally know what the objective ES pattern rules are

...for the SPYs it doesn't work very well. I have monitored the last 8/9 months of SPY maxpain #s around 6-8 days prior to expiry and from memory (although I haven't written it down which is something I wish I had done as it would be emperical) is that it just doesn't work profitably

ie the SPYs have finished way away from the max pain level. Now what will happen in the future and I can already see it, is that it will work in April or May and it will be posted as a great tool.

I keep harping on about it but it needs to be backtested and hopefully I am saving you some money by stating that from my monitoring, it doesn't work well and I would not use it as a guide as to where the SPYs are likely to finish on Options Expiry

Again as per with EW, this is criticism of a tool and if it saves a trader money or gives them reason to be cautious then that is constructive

Looks like a gap higher may well happen Worth pointing out that the newsletters have had more of a bearish bias in my opinion than bullish. Market wants to probe higher

you need to remember algyros that the macro picture shouldn't be bought into the factor in most cases. Even the events in Japan in my opinion were simply an excuse for a sell off after the run up. Not much more than that. Technically we were overbought and that was the oportunistic moment to close longs on the chart.  

Just focus in on the charts and nothing else. Live in a bubble almost. Fed by the way is only bullish for the market right now because of the POMO operations. Markets will rarely retrace materially during POMO phases. Its only when the influx of liquidity diminishes that we will see a more balanced market. But who cares......its all in the charts

I have backtested a lot of this and seasonality around month end has changed. Before month end use to get the 401K buying but now its around 1st of the month which gets the influx. Need to refresh it but that was my initial high level conclusion at the time.

Zillions of systems, zillions of stuff I want to work through. Just zonked out at the mo on other strategies. Will get to it one day!!!

thanks

which one is more reliable ref: Divergence? MACD Histogram or MACD Regular? Histogram is showing divergence whereas regular isn't

Ditch, what are the objective trading results on say a 5 or 10year timeframe (excluding the high volatility abnormal period of Sept-08 through to say June-09) of following the strategy you are advocating.

Seems like you have backtested this as you mention it as beinga  long term investment tool

about the same WoW at 13.5k contracts net long

The interesting ones are the likes of Gold & Silver which have speculators net long whereas the Commercial guys are quite heavily short. I continue to be short Silver here. Its way overbought. No reason to sell but I have strategies saying sell, charts with divergence. Even my wife is telling me to go long Silver so it must be time to short

he probably has a timeshare in Libya thats just gone belly up so hes a bit cheesed off

Only joking. Sure its not a personal crusade. Just his opinion/thoughts. Overall he is a great guy.

Right, I am off for a beer or 6

thats a fair question and i have no idea. But you must remember. His systems are swing trading systems which from memory have a trade lasting 1-7days. Something like that. These end of the world or catastrophe or mini crash or major correction calls are several weeks or 2-3month calls. The 2 are different

Think Michael sums up his systems well. They are not correlated or related to his personal opinion.

This site should have a blogroll column on it. Seriously guys. I just mentioned this earlier today with respect to some guy saying the Dollar is dead. His track record from everything I have searched wasn't good and his the dollar is dead article was simply headline grabbing journalism. Surely you can all see that???

In terms of Peter, his systems are incredibly strong. Out of this world and better than anything I can or probably ever will be able to code. I get PFs 5-20. He gets north of 50 I think. Astronomical. So no doubting his record at objective system writing

In terms of his market calls, I recall 2 previous ones. One was predicting a c20% fall in Q4 2009 and the other was predicting a c20% fall again in Q4 2010. So from my perspective and unless anyone has any empirical evidence to the contrary, its something I wouldn't read anything into.

I stress.....his systems are second to none

Be wary of blogs/reports etc like this. This guy predicted the dollar would rally in a report he did in Feb 07 when the Dollar Index was at 82ish. He said it would head back to the 90 range. For the rest of 2007 it stairstepped down and precipitously

http://www.growthstockwire.com/2264/Time-to-Go-Long-the-Dollar

"Things are rosy" or "steady as she goes" never makes headlines. "Crashes", "Going through the roof" and all that stuff does. These are nothing but journalists. (infact that may be an insult to decent journalists!)

Steve

The last 2 60min bars on the S&P look like firstly a bullish bar followed by the next bar of indecision and now we have just started the 3rd bar. If bearish engulfing, does this qualify as an ES Candlestick pattern? Or am I reading the last 2 candles wrong!?