Crude continues to be where I think a great return this year is
possible. It has underperformed CRB over the past few years. MTD, I
think it is on track for its best month in 2 years. In a
SuperCycle, everything usually has its day. Crude may be the one to
be best placed for the next 6months
In addition, I think the reason why Crude has held up today
(Apart from Geo-Political), is if I was a fund manager , I would be
rotating out of Metals and into areas like Crude, Wheat, Sugar
etc.
Yes I am sure. Looks like the streets are under control, budget
deficit is falling, "trillions" (quote from "him") coming in from
tariffs, global alliances and friendships, CPI firmly under control
(wait until next month when this Oil price rise filters through to
the numbers, unemployment falling (Sorry tapering to flat now and
about to start a firm multi year rise up), the dollar under a
global dumping (importing more inflation) and the list goes on.
Great Master Plan. Envy of the world.
It is due a snapback though. When you look at the Daily Chart, I
think a bounce to around 97.50/97.75 is possible. I can see a tiny
gap there as well as a prior Pivot Low/Possible Supply Zone.
Trigger? It could be PPI tomorrow or if nothing from that,
then Friday night/Weekend action by Trump in Iran. Something to
take attention away from gaping wide Domestic Woes or throw a few
more toys out of his pram.
No surprises. They are rightly basing their decision on the data
rather than trying to Politisise the process. Just seems so obvious
as the right approach this side of the pond in Europe.
I use this chart alot during the week but ensure I close any
positions taken as a result of divergences, by the weekend. Just to
go in flat over the weekend. I was seeing positive divergences last
Friday but glad I adopted the "weekend flat" approach
Matt, is it worth adding a ratio to the chart to spot
divergences in an easier way? So like the VVIX VIX Ratio chart
where its easy to spot when they get out of sync? Or do you think
drawing trend lines is the best approach? I draw trend lines at the
moment but got thinking about the Ratio addition/option
Can't help but think its all one big insider trading ring with
his buddies who went in short over the long weekend. But as you say
TACO strikes again. Credibility fast waning....or in negative
territory
At the 38.2% Fib I think of the recent move up. if this breaks
(which it may do as he is about to speak at the WH), then 67 is the
next stop. Then again, he might surprise the world by saying
something nice. Let's see. I am not the best at Fibs etc so
what i have done may be completely wrong in the chart!
Dow Weekend down 330. Latest great decision by Trump to impose
yet to be confirmed as legal, tariffs. This time, on Europe. re:
Greenland. Err...The decision to illegally try and take over
Greenland.
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Crude v CRB
Posted by vimal on 30th of Jan 2026 at 03:28 pm
Crude continues to be where I think a great return this year is possible. It has underperformed CRB over the past few years. MTD, I think it is on track for its best month in 2 years. In a SuperCycle, everything usually has its day. Crude may be the one to be best placed for the next 6months
In addition, I think the reason why Crude has held up today (Apart from Geo-Political), is if I was a fund manager , I would be rotating out of Metals and into areas like Crude, Wheat, Sugar etc.
Yes I am sure. Looks
Did trump top ticked the market ?
Posted by vimal on 29th of Jan 2026 at 10:43 am
Yes I am sure. Looks like the streets are under control, budget deficit is falling, "trillions" (quote from "him") coming in from tariffs, global alliances and friendships, CPI firmly under control (wait until next month when this Oil price rise filters through to the numbers, unemployment falling (Sorry tapering to flat now and about to start a firm multi year rise up), the dollar under a global dumping (importing more inflation) and the list goes on. Great Master Plan. Envy of the world.
TACO Top. Of course capital
Did trump top ticked the market ?
Posted by vimal on 29th of Jan 2026 at 10:08 am
TACO Top. Of course capital letters in his tweet. Very mature and presidential.
It is due a snapback
The $USD broke its long-term trend.
Posted by vimal on 29th of Jan 2026 at 05:35 am
It is due a snapback though. When you look at the Daily Chart, I think a bounce to around 97.50/97.75 is possible. I can see a tiny gap there as well as a prior Pivot Low/Possible Supply Zone. Trigger? It could be PPI tomorrow or if nothing from that, then Friday night/Weekend action by Trump in Iran. Something to take attention away from gaping wide Domestic Woes or throw a few more toys out of his pram.
No surprises. They are rightly
Fed
Posted by vimal on 28th of Jan 2026 at 03:23 pm
No surprises. They are rightly basing their decision on the data rather than trying to Politisise the process. Just seems so obvious as the right approach this side of the pond in Europe.
Markets are forward pricing. Weather
UNG
Posted by vimal on 28th of Jan 2026 at 09:03 am
Markets are forward pricing. Weather for perhaps the next 7-10 days will be fully priced in
So I think if it
Wheat WEAT
Posted by vimal on 23rd of Jan 2026 at 11:27 am
So I think if it is at Multi Year Support, then buy support, sell resistance kicks in. So I am nibbling away at some here.
Agreed. Monthly Chart right at
Wheat WEAT
Posted by vimal on 23rd of Jan 2026 at 10:55 am
Agreed. Monthly Chart right at Support here.
https://schrts.co/EwyuIDCD
I use this chart alot
HYG vs SPX: HYG makes new highs,
Posted by vimal on 21st of Jan 2026 at 03:09 pm
I use this chart alot during the week but ensure I close any positions taken as a result of divergences, by the weekend. Just to go in flat over the weekend. I was seeing positive divergences last Friday but glad I adopted the "weekend flat" approach
Matt, is it worth adding a ratio to the chart to spot divergences in an easier way? So like the VVIX VIX Ratio chart where its easy to spot when they get out of sync? Or do you think drawing trend lines is the best approach? I draw trend lines at the moment but got thinking about the Ratio addition/option
Can't help but think its
TACO
Posted by vimal on 21st of Jan 2026 at 02:37 pm
Can't help but think its all one big insider trading ring with his buddies who went in short over the long weekend. But as you say TACO strikes again. Credibility fast waning....or in negative territory
At the 38.2% Fib I
Posted by vimal on 20th of Jan 2026 at 01:45 pm
At the 38.2% Fib I think of the recent move up. if this breaks (which it may do as he is about to speak at the WH), then 67 is the next stop. Then again, he might surprise the world by saying something nice. Let's see. I am not the best at Fibs etc so what i have done may be completely wrong in the chart!
Dow Weekend down 330. Latest
Posted by vimal on 17th of Jan 2026 at 04:24 pm
Dow Weekend down 330. Latest great decision by Trump to impose yet to be confirmed as legal, tariffs. This time, on Europe. re: Greenland. Err...The decision to illegally try and take over Greenland.
What exactly in pre-market futures
Looks like market makers setting up for a gap up ...
Posted by vimal on 2nd of Jan 2025 at 09:14 am
What exactly in pre-market futures trading structure implies we gap up and then dump?
A range of brilliant posts
Gentle pullbackThe S&P 500's 8.5% peak-to-trough pullback this year is ...
Posted by vimal on 1st of Jan 2025 at 11:51 am
A range of brilliant posts by you today Steve. Thankyou
Actually don't worry. Correlation beween
Does anyone know a way I can directly trade VVIX? ...
Posted by vimal on 1st of Jun 2024 at 01:43 pm
Actually don't worry. Correlation beween VIX & VVIX is strong enough for me to take the VIX investment route but using VVIX as the trigger
Does anyone know a way
Posted by vimal on 1st of Jun 2024 at 01:23 pm
Does anyone know a way I can directly trade VVIX? I do need the VVIX directly rather than VIX.
Great work this week btw
SPX vs SPX (OANDA) - despite trading this heavily, I'm ...
Posted by vimal on 24th of May 2024 at 03:51 pm
Great work this week btw Steve on calling the intraday movements as well as the daily directions. Good job!
Yep Cost of Living here
UK inflation came in higher than expected
Posted by vimal on 22nd of May 2024 at 11:58 am
Yep Cost of Living here in the UK is biting. We are likely to have a General Election btw on 4th July. TIme for a change of guard
Very good video. Thanks Matt
Precious Metals: Silver, Gold, mining stocks video
Posted by vimal on 19th of May 2024 at 03:05 pm
Very good video. Thanks Matt
That could easily morph into
FCX
Posted by vimal on 14th of May 2024 at 10:36 am
That could easily morph into a bearish rising wedge. I feel like it's due a pullback. Need a trigger though. I certainly wouldn't buy here