Marchs 10th move would negate this study. Simply because the market is no longer between its high and low of 5 days ago.

when a decent selloff occurs, this is what you get. Its liquidation across the board. If it really takes off, then you will get one of those days where Gold for example falls $40-$50

But with POMO, I am not sure we are at that stage yet

There is too much risk premium built into Silver AND the Dollar is strengthening which will add downside pressure AND most importantly, the technicals on a daily chart are starting to show neg div and Weekly RSI is sky high. I am short and think its ripe for a decent correction

Something that has worked well lately is a cross of the 7/21 on the Ratio aswell as the regular MACD. The MACD has cut off on the shot below but you get the picture

This triggered a sell yesterday

Regards

do the charts above imply an upside resolution? The first chart highlights the gap and the second one the abcde whereby it would have to resolve to the upside.

Is that right?

...Ignore the news

Nice article

http://dobelli.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Avoid_News_Part1_TEXT.pdf

For those of you that have a holding in Molycorp

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-07/molycorp-surging-as-acquirer-as-china-raises-rare-earth-stakes-real-m-a.html

I read many comments that M3 Switch follows the trend well. Infact I have bought the indicator myself but have yet to conduct one key analysis

If it follows the trend well, then by definition, it must be net positive in terms of yielding S&P points if you simply buy or sell based on the indicator

Does anyone have stats going back 3-4 years that provides information on its overall performance? From eyeballing it, it looks fine but indicators can give visual illusions as it were

As I say, i will do this analysis in April when I get some time out from work but in the meantime, wasn't sure if anyone had done this exercise

agreed. The quality of his systems are unquestionable. They have performed very well. But if memory serves me right, his big calls of a 20% decline in Q4 both in 2009 and 2010 didn't materialised

But hey I would be happy with bad "verbal" calls and excellent systems!

could be yes. I hope my stops don't get hit. It should be a top given that prices are lower now than on 17th and we have a break of the rising wedge and force/MACD etc are showing bearish signals

BUT, today is not exactly giving me warmth for the bearish stance. If the dollar gets a bid, then it may be the turning point. But I feel tomorrow is make or break either way given its NFP

In terms of cycles etc, Bradley Model projected a turn date of 17th (which is accurate +/- 2 days). So far, this has held up with the top in at 1344 on 18th.

The 17th Feb turn is a "major" turn highlighted by the model and will persist through to around the end of Q2 

However, todays strength is slightly worrying and hopefully Bradley hasn't been impacted by POMO aswell!!!!!

When Jim Rogers speaks, I am all ears. He is the messiah. He talks common sense and his views in most instances are valid and they play out.

Will watch this video now so thx for posting

I actually think its an objective short around here as a trade (short term trade).

Price is 50% or so above its 200day MA. Crazily extended

RSI 14 looks like its forming a lower high as does MACD Histogram

Regular MACD reaching levels not seen for a long time

Dollar reversing against many pairs today which I think may be the start of certainly dollar bottoming if not a reversal of trend short term

So possibly a good time to take a punt with a stop around 35.25ish

Interesting. The other thing to note is that when Equities see sustained selling then you are likely to get asset liquidation on a broader basis and some of these overpriced commodities like Silver will come back down quite sharply. Its what usually happens. The trigger will probably be a turnaround in the dollar putting sharper pressure on the S&P.

I have seen a chart flying around somewhere on a site that highlights that markets perform better when POMO is happening compared to when it isn't. I guess its kind of what we know already

What i am keen to know if anyone knows is what is the "typical" impact in terms of S&P Points of say a $1bn POMO Programme?. So tomorrow is I think $1-2bn and then Thurs and Fri are heavier with $6-8bn each day. What does every $1bn mean in terms of S&P Points? At present, I have no real idea of how material these numbers are ....although its impact on the market is clear over a period of time

The 30min chart I have just doesn't look good. We have the 8/21 MAs crossing down , 60,3 stoch, 89,3 stoch aswell crossing below the 80 marker

Also, 144,3 also is about to cross down through its 80 marker

Just standing back and looking at the chart, it looks like pressure will be to the downside

I figure that if I start posting some long ideas, the market may put in some kind of top and start to finally go down.

I have a few others but thought I would post these for now

Bull flagging . Kind of

I can see quadruple MACD Divergence on the S&P 30min. Yet the market continues to show resiliance. Copper is taking it on the chin but the S&P is holding up. Seasonally, the next few days are not good but i am not sure this will cut any cloth at the moment!!

I am short S&P at the mo from the beginning of this week and it ain't much fun. I think what we seem to be getting is a move up which is the famous final 5th wave and then this gets superceeded by the alternative count that sees us propell higher to an alternate target

Once we get to the alternate target, 2 more scenarios take hold and we move up again to a new final 5th wave based on one of the 2 new scenarios and the process repeats itself

So I doubt haramis, divergences etc will have much stay.....as they can easily be negated by that famous alternate scenario

Blue Horse Shoe loves Anecot Steel