Thanks Matt. Within 5 minutes of posting the chart before, price just broke the wedge. Naturally on some news as it is all news driven. So a 3% move down

However, what you have re-iterated over the past few weeks is true in so many cases. It is almost as if the charts lead the news and this is a live example of what I posted on Brent

Matt, just some advice required on EW ABCDE. Is this a valid ABCDE on Brent 2 hour? Just asking as I am no expert at all on EW so looking to hear your thoughts

At the very least, the B looks strange. I give myself 2 out of 10 on EW Expertise!

yes here we got use to believing America over Iran. How the tables have turned. 

yes he also mentioned he can hold his breath under water for 3 hours. Of course, we believe him. There needs to be an Index with tradeable options prices on how many lies he says per hour let alone day, week, month or year.  Yesterday summed up below.....

Contrarian is to short when everyone is talking it up. Thats my take. Would coincide with an overdue bounce in Equities and fall in the 10yr yield. 

not sure "to the rescue" can be stated without also mentioning he got us into this mess in the first place

There may be a H&S forming on 1hour Crude. Of course, News dominates so this can easily be invalidated. I am thinking how much more bad news can be priced in and/or would any leader want to see Crude spike further? Anyway, that's all speculation on my part as I am more bearish than bullish Oil at these levels. Sooner or later, lower GDP and demand will also take hold. But Short term, if the neckline breaks, then we may drift down to $85. 

...talk of the town as it were. I wonder if it will make its way to DJ Master Fib at around $102-103 before reversing? Just thinking contrarian that the best time to short is when there is all the bad news out there. Yes it can get worse and much worse. However,  I am sure minimising the length of time for price to remain elevated will be on everyones mind!

The cynical side of me says a spike overnight or into tomorrow to $103. Then "insiders" shorting before the weekend with a gap down Monday morning. We can all guess some names of insiders I think.

...so short term, (One of Matts top picks), might be forming a bullish channel here. But trading is quite thin so will see if this plays out and breaks up

Separately, Sugar I would guess is heavily impacted by Weather patterns, such as El Nino. The last one was late 2023/early 2024. (The most recent strong El Niño event occurred in 2023–2024, with its peak impacts on agriculture felt between late 2023 and early 2024.)

The next one is later this year. Now I might be putting 2 cubes of sugar together with another 2 cubes of sugar and getting 5. However, I think price will rise throughout 2026 in anticipation of the impact of El Nino later this year. Rather like it did throughout 2023 in anticipation of El Nino in late 2023. Then prices fell after the El Nino Season finished.  So the rotation of money from Metals, to Energy.....may soon find its way to Ags and heat up the sector with a more explosive move upwards.

Something sweet to ponder on

So a nice breakdown from this mornings channel. Now $78 and time to take some shorts off the table.  But not seeing any pos div of meaning at this level so it may just stabilise here for a while.

Directly via the ETF/ETC. Yes so this is the one I use through WisdomTree in my Pension. COCO.L

I was long Cocoa a few years ago during the spike in Prices. This was induced by severe droughts in Africa. Right now, technically price is back to its breakout level from many years ago. In addition, March to June are Seasonally Bullish for Cocoa. Finally, weekly RSI looks to be breaking above 30. Needs a downward channel break but I am nibbling here at Cocoa

A bearish channel on the 2hr forming in Oil. However, materially news driven right now and news trumps the charts at times like this for Oil. If it plays out, then we should break lower. But it all seems to be on Fast Forward for me these days in the markets.  Also the channel needs time to form so just something to watch here. 

Unless some new news breaks out in the Trump/Netanyahu illegal war against Iran, I don't see VIX accelerating to the level of around 40. Not this time round

I am seeing many indicators such as the Breadth Thrust, reaching levels of exhaustion or washout. So for me, we may stabalise here even if it is rangebound activity at the lows.

....agree. And Oil betting futures shoe Oil up another 5%. Trump working his magic again at "no wars under my administration" and the no-where to be seen $1.99 gasoline prices. 

How the electorate has become so gullible is beyond belief. 

If we do accelerate down, I expect Oil to face some profit-taking irrespective of Geopolitical. The usual mass liquidation event whenever you get sharp sustained declines in Equities that spills over to all instruments

As mentioned before, Markets are forward looking. The weather for at least the next 7 days will be priced in irrespective of how warm it is when you walk out the door right now

why are you trading the leveraged instrument? I think UPRO is 2x right? These always denegrade over time such is their nature

Or put max 10% in UPRO and 90% in single stocks or ETFs. 

The backtest etc for UPRO is simply that and systems can stop working over time irrespective of how good historical performance was

So yes a H&S but I see potentially another shoulder on either side. This person has 4 shoulders!

Also looking at price action on the chart, it looks like a bearish channel since 6775 low. Just haven't drawn it in

Break this and we may head back towards 68. I still favour a downside resolution but then again, markets have been so choppy, that anything can happen

Crude continues to be where I think a great return this year is possible. It has underperformed CRB over the past few years. MTD, I think it is on track for its best month in 2 years. In a SuperCycle, everything usually has its day. Crude may be the one to be best placed for the next 6months

In addition, I think the reason why Crude has held up today (Apart from Geo-Political), is if I was a fund manager , I would be rotating out of Metals and into areas like Crude, Wheat, Sugar etc.