Approaching some resistance here on the 4hr downward trendline. Seems a decent place to an objective short as there also seems to be supply around here. 

Beginning to warm to MOO for a swing play. I know this was featured in the newsletters Q4 last year and Q1. The outside reversal week has me on the lookout for either an abc pullback or just a 50% move back of the recent move. Should I think target $86 easily in this move on a Swing basis.

Oil is moving more this weekend(+1.9%) relative to US30.....but of course news driven.     https://www.ig.com/uk/indices/markets-indices/weekend-oil---us-crude. Also the weekend betting is kind of a 50/50 unless the move is on the back of some material weekend news.

Technically, I still see this as a channel breakout. However, there is alot of Supply, as you pointed out, at around $84.

I am inclined to take some off the table on Monday unless events take over. Everyone is expecting Oil to top out here around $84ish and then head down towards $70 again. I can't hep but think there is a Contrarian play here. So perhaps, continue to trail up is my approach 

I am still long Oil but may trail up here. Yes resistance here. Also a channel which seems to be breaking upwards on the 2hour. 

On a Macro basis, the amount of SPR left is getting very thin.....but this is just FYI rather than a trigger or info I am using

I think you are seeing Thursdays movement rather than Friday. Today is a Constitution Holiday there. 

Holding up well here. It might be a place to nibble at some longs.....with a trigger of course

Still not looking healthy. I would favour some more corrective downside in S&P

Personally I wouldn't be a buyer for quite a while. Yes they may bounce here temporarily but there is an insiders stock unlock in August so they can sell 20-37% of their holdings. Some of these insiders will have had the stock since inception prior to it going public at extremely low prices. So an increase in Stock Supply in August will only send the shares in one direction.....my best guess at the mo

I think it doesn't seem too far away from a tradeable bottom....but I might wait. Some form of Wave Structure here with a possible extended 5th? Support is still 3-4% further down I think where there are some demand zomes. However, MACD still firmly headed down. So I guess close....but no cigar for me. Or Close, but no Candy

I watched a video on this yesterday so ironic you posted something similar. The SPR can't fall below around 200m barrels. This isn't the exact number but for reasons of maintaining pressure in the caves where this is stored etc, the reserves have to highish. They can't just be depleted to zero. Current levels ~300m barrels. The price shock would be sharp if these can't be dipped into anymore.  However, the best cure for a rise in the price of Oil.........is a rise in the price of Oil. Sounds peverse. I think if Supply is squeezed significantly, demand will fall and this in turn, acts as a regulation to prevent $150,$200+ etc. That's my opinion. Also China is superquick at moving to EV as it did with the Price Shock in March/April this year. Hence prices didn't rise as rapidly as they would have done with the Status Quo.   https://youtu.be/HuJ2IdQ87a8?si=emFxp56XP31flham 

For this weekend, for what it's worth, Oil is trading up 2.5% . Of course news driven etc. As Matt said in his newsletter, charts lead the news. Price action seemed to be taking a turn to the bullish view (short term I stress!). So news this weekend looks like it will push Oil up when futures open up later.   https://www.ig.com/uk/indices/markets-indices/weekend-oil---us-crude 

Great call on NVDA several days ago Matt

Seeing some divergence here on the 60min. HYG normally leads

H&S. Down to the knees and toes if it plays out. 

Starting to form a H&S? Maybe. Maybe not. I was just a tad bored so fancied some drawing practice.. Measured move down to 7300

My Seasonality chart is from Stockcharts paid subscription.  Another source being Yahoo per below. Both show up for July in the past 2 years unless I am doing something incorrect.  Hence would be good to see your raw data.

Capital letter free. Reminds me of tweets. 

Please post your data and data source for July 2024 and 2025 as I see them as being up months

So definitely favouring the bulls here. Last 10 Years all up. This correction we have had definitely seems to be a correction in time rather than price. No impulsive move down. 

Rally during earnings, rotational move potentially out of Semis ..... to some degree.... as we saw on Friday. Stabilisation of Oil $70-$75 range. And of course...the Seasonality chart below. I don't see many headwinds. At this rate, I will be ordering an 8k hat off Mia. 

"You wouldn't know It from my account". As the legend MJ himself sang, You are not alone. It was all going so well for the first hour and then some rug pull....probably the Wave E Matt eluded to.

Stats are heavily on the side of a positive July with I think 9 out of the last 10 years being positive. Or something like that. So swimming with the tide suggests staying long.

Hi Matt. ADEA has broken the trend line. Generally, is your approach to wait for a close on the day to confirm a break?

https://schrts.co/VGVTJavD 

great call Matt. I do like these abc patterns on retraces and buying at demand. They seem to be low-risk entry points.