Hi Matt. I can see UNG forming poss div but the one thing I am not sure of is what has driven the price to fall so far? Is it demand supply driven or is this one of those "decaying" etfs? ...or is it pure technicals?

Corn has been mentioned over the past few weeks in the newsletter and its been a great buy. I think a few nights ago it was noted that there is probably one more push up to go in this current cycle. Of course the long term is bullish.

One thing I look at (although its not the decision maker for me. Far from it. Its I guess additional info only) is the commercial and non commercials futures positions

The non commercials are at record longs on corn at present and the chart is kind of scary. It tells me that after this last push up, we may see some sideways action/consolidation. However I doubt there will be any deep retracement

Timeframe in the chart by the way is Jan-06 to the present date by week and shows the # of non commercial net long contracts by week

Regards

dont tell the mrs and transfer the house over to your name

only kidding

v.well timed Rank!

Systems are great you are right but from my testing and I am sure Matt/Steve will agree, they need volatility to prosper

My rough calcs say a vol of 25 on the VIX is the minimum required to make them work

Great work Matt!!

Regards

Vimal

the only thing I would say is that I read an article in a currency journal recently (part of my day job work) and it mentioned something about the fact that trying to play a correlation game on a regular basis between S&P and eurjpy (or eurchf) would not work as a strategy per se. So all I can say is that yes eurjpy isn't tracking the spy higher "today". However, if you look at over a period of time, yes you see "some strong correlation". All I can say as I don't have the article to hand anymore is one should not short eurjpy as a substitute for shorting SPY and visa versa.

Hope this helps!...or have I confused things!??

Some nice charts here!

By the way , I have PM'd replies to you several times ref: $RUT, but there must be technical issues either with my outbox or your inbox.

Hopefully these will get resolved soon

Wedge patterns by the way are a fantastic play especially when confirmed with some other indicators

Hi Michael

Yes 15mins in and my gap system is showing a sell but I like to wait for 30mins trading before confirming. So far yep fade the gap

lets see. Unfortunately my system won't time it perfectly every time but at 1098 I am offside by 3points at present. Early days!

Short at 1098 on the cash. Let the fun begin. 15-25 s&p points in the next 1-5 days is the norm

I have been short since Friday on the back of some of my EOD Systems. I have a 60min one which has been impressive lately and its likely to trigger short today. It should be good for a 15-25 S&P Point fall over the coming 1-5 trading days. We shall see!

fwiw, my gap analysis says this gap will not close today.......but lets see. I am not putting any further money behind this particular analysis as i am short as of Friday

awesome! (and explains why I don't listen to any news/blogrolls etc).

From a currency perspective, yes this is true. Cable and Euro have had a reasonable run against the $ but have struggled v CHF & YEN. There is a big move to the safehavens of CHF & YEN as carry trades

In terms of what bloggers etc say, I am not swayed either way by this and dont read any of it ........but thats my approach!

Yen wise, this is the one that suprises me. I went long last week and took 50pips profit today but was hoping for 100. It then for some reason rallied sharply v the dollar even though the SPY rallied which is very unusual so there has been some decoupling

Retail investors are still near record longs in YEN and whilst I am not initiating a new trade (as its more disrectionary and I want to avoid these types of trades), it seems ripe for a fall v USD . So USDJPY should rally

Retail investors near record longs, positive divergence on the dailies and there seems to be an 89day or so cycle in USDJPY that kicks in around 3rd/4th Sept which in theory should be a cycle low

Right . Good week and time to enjoy the weekend

glad I followed my system and decided against fading the gap.

Separately I have a system that trades the Russell and it has a Profit factor of a mere(!) 30 . Although the last 12months its only managed a PF of 6. Its going to short tonight so lets see what happens. Could be in the trade one day. It could be one week! Who knows! Follow the system, walk away and enjoy the weekend with a beer or three!

my gap indicator says.......too close to call. Simply don't know. The probabilities are not convincing either way for me so now I have closed my longs opened last week, time to stand aside and let it give a better indication

good stuff! Time for me to close my longs from last week in both the S&P and usdjpy. I have a gap approach so will post my thoughts for what its worth in 30mins or so as to whether I think the gap will close or not

happy days!

...thats the right approach.

Separately, I went long a few days ago and got some PMs with shock horror since the "Sky was dark". Well timed however. Also, retail investors are quite heavily short at the moment in the S&P. It doesn't feel right to me that we go down from here in a big thump. Maybe that may change over the coming weeks but short term for the early part of next week, I remain long and have a trailing stop in place for insurance

Also, I am long USDJPY as technically we have divergence and there are some extreme long positions in the Yen from the part of Retail investors. I would be suprised if we dont rally at least 100pips in USDJPY next week

On the Yen, retail investors are net long 50k contracts as of last Friday. This level of net long positions has typically led to some form of retracement in the Yen

I started to scale into long USDJPY positions this week and coupled with divergence on the currency chart, it makes for me a good risk reward trade

So what you state is another good reason to either expect S&P strength and/or JPY weakness in the coming weeks