Hi. i thinnk SNCR could run up a couple of points here. Any thoughts?

Hi. Any thoughts on RVBD? Seems to be consolidating here and MACD has crossed up. Could be good for 2-3 points? Any thoughts?

Agree on the Dollar synopsis. I have just taken a GBPUSD short by the way and see some room for the pair to move down towards 1.53-1.54 range for sure

Its down quite sharply today (having said which it was up very sharply on Monday). I trade via the core futures rather than UNG to avoid the decay issue

I think from the chart, it looks like todays move down may have filled a gap and I hope it bases here before another push upwards

Natural Gas (along with the likes of Rice & Cocoa) were the dogs of 2010 all closing lower year on year

As the saying goes, the dog of last year is this years cash cow. Medium term hold for me here on Nat Gas adding on pullbacks

Thanks Matt/Joseph1

Just from a learning perspective, why is a high volume consolidation/penant pattern better than a lower volume consolidation/penant pattern?

check out rice. It hasn't participated in the commodities rally to the same degree as other agros. It will most likely pullback here with other commodities but I am waiting for it to move back towards its longterm trendline before moving in

Matt/Steve

Is EK Bull flagging here? I can't post the chart but it looks like its ready to push higher

$PALL is the outright commodity in stockcharts and to short you can therefore either short the commodity or even go for a couple of Palladium stocks such as PAL & SWC.

I personally would short the metal directly incase of any company specific news but your choice

Regards

it all depends on where the stock opens in a few minutes. If it rises above its bearish wedge then maybe the pattern needs to be redrawn/reconsidered.

If it opens at around 83, then it would take a brave investor to buy at resistance which is around 83 on the bearish wedge pattern

Just my thoughts.

Just looking at the charts, the NDX is failing to make new highs whereas the SPX has made higher highs broadly speaking

In theory the market should sell off from here through to the news and probably after

But it is Fed news day so anything can happen

I have taken a small short punt here given also that seasonally today and tomorrow are weak. We shall see!!

very good stock pick Matt! I think just going on from some of the other analysis you have done on stocks, this is the type of stock I hold for the medium term given that its broken above multi week resistance

One to tuck away with trailing stops

In a corny way, you justify the validity of BPT which is based purely on technicals...and rightly so

Personally I have done much better following technical set ups and the "news" coming from the technical readings than I ever have following the macro news

Guess do what I do which is to not follow the news and don't forget, markets are a forward pricing mechanism

..thats the ticker on Stockcharts

Matt covered this last night in the Commodities update. The natural gas futures are currently down 5% and back to the 200day MA. This I think will act as logical support in what is a short term uptrend channel

I think its a good objective buy here

Nice charts. I don't know how far this rally will go but I see at the moment a wedge pattern in the early stages that has an initial target at the 200day MA

From there......we will have to wait and see!

mamaduck........you are awesome! Great video

i like natural gas and trade $natgas futures. looks good here in a rising channel with next resistance at the 200day

I am not in it but its gone a bit too parabolic and if I had the b*lls, i would short here for a scalp. But history teaches me never to short a directionally trending upwards market/instrument

.....another example of what I mean by backtest. 2 does not make a trend and is no sample size at all. You need to analyse the signal/system/strategy over a period of at least 20-30 occurances and see what performed well and what didn't and what were the prevailing market conditions at the time.

For example you might find the VIX BB Buy Signal performs well when VIX % is above 25 and not so well when its below 25. You then have a trading edge versus playing outright the simple approach which is relatively widely known

Not a pop at you but just an illustration

Besides...I am not a McHugh permabear fan!

In my opinion, long term indicators are useful as a guidance but it probably stops there. As with anything else, I would advocate all to backtest an indicator(s) and not just over the past 2-3 years where basically most crossovers/indicators were working well due to the volatility but also during less volatile times

You might find the results suprising!

Hi freddy. Looks like we both have a sweet tooth

I have been long for a while on SGG and last time I posted on this on 24th May, the price was subdued at 43. Its doubled since then so thats good

I am moving out of SGG here but will be going back in on a retrace