Is it possible to post the 2009 & say a more normal year like 2006 charts with M3Switch and the other indicators you typically show on the chart (let me know if you are not sure which chart I mean and I will provide some further info and reference to one of the nightly updates that sometimes has the chart)

It would be good to see the consistency in the performance of the indicators during different market conditions

Matt

Can you kindly post the same chart but for 2009 please and a more "standard" year such as 2006 so we can see how the combination of indicators looked in those years?

Regards

Vimal

is there any way to impose a no long trades ban on bp, the damage caused by their rig is unbelievable. 

i have met larry a few times and he is a nice guy. however putting that aside, as i would say for any analysis, trade calls or the like the answer is to backtest. so dig up all of his calls or as many as you can and see how he called it. for info, he called a top for around june or july last year.......ie a top in june or july 09. not quite right1

I went long around 48.20 a few days ago but its retraced 50% of the loss from the high so I am going to take profits here. Every chance it will rally further as MACD hasn't rolled over yet and I don't see any divergence on the timeframe i look at. But its struggling at this 50% fib level

I have quite a large position in Sugar and have been buying the ETF at slightly higher levels and much more aggressively at lower levels around 38 where it seems to have put in a rounded bottom (SGG is the ticker)

There are some very high expectations built into the price with respect to the crop in both India and Brazil materialising with some record deliveries/output

If we are even slightly short on delivery of the crop, then the price will rally

Given its fall from 84 only 3months ago, a current price of 43 seems worth going for. I see yes some "sweet" upside

Regards

Vimal

yes nice chart. I noticed GDX had also stopped at the top of its falling channel and used the opportunity to add to shorts. Should be a good 2 way bet. If equity markets fall materially, I think you will get liquidation of some Gold positions given its recent run. If equities rally, then Gold & Gold Stocks will probably fall on some dollar retracement of recent gains. We shall see!

Good point on Silver here Steve

Some other things I see at "extremes" in the market is around the Euro which as we have seen is in semi freefall. Non Commercial shorts were at pretty high levels last week and extremes so i would not at all be suprised to see the Euro bounce next week coupled with an Equities rally and pullback in safehaven currencies of Gold & Silver

I think medium/longer term we have some big structural issues here in Europe but no point looking too much in detail. History tells me that mean reversion or semi mean reversion happens in most bombed out instruments at some stage (excluding specific equity related issues).  

I actually think we are destined to rally from here. Maybe not today but over the coming weeks. We shall see. I like taking a contrarian view. I recall notes last Friday or over the weekend about a possible 1500point fall this week

If ever there was a trigger to go long, that was it!

Took a punt early on and shorted GDX. Its looking tired here and it may be a gap open. Pulling back nicely at the moment but the day has just started!

yes volatility is the key word for these mechanical systems under which they perform very well based on historicals. From my analysis, they need to have VIX > 25 to perform profitably after you account for commissions and slippage. Under 25 and you won't make any return...as I say, based on my analysis which may/may not be correct

EW Analysis or EWI to be specific is summarised in this report. http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616

Annualised Return

Wilshire 5000 Index +9.7% (positive return)

EWI -15.4% (negative return)

And the rest as they say .....is history

Maybe the article should be a sticky post. It gives some darn good conclusions!