Matt/Steve

What are your views on FTNT as a buy here?

Its not a text book buy with divergence etc yet but its way away from the 9EMA, oversold and also volume in the half day on Friday looks almost exhaustive compared to yesterdays full day trading

Any thoughts or too risky at this stage?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTNT&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p36180854157&a=326204234

Is it fair to say the measured move on JAKK could be to around 8.50 from 6.30 at the moment?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAKK&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p13204746628&a=324864818

Steve, is Palladium a buy here on a break up? Appreciate not too much upside to the 9EMA

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PALL&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p07189030081&a=324770955

bullish wedge likely to play out or is it a break of a rising trend and backtest kiss before falling?

as far as the metal itself is concerned i think it has another leg down. i am also short silver as of thursday and looking for a downward move in the coming week.

Thanks. I have just taken out a long on ZSL which is the silver inverse. Lets see what this does. My view is that Silver has more downside in the short term. 

i posted on friday i was going short nat gas by taking a long in the ultrashort etf dgaz. 

its done quite well up 20% since friday. we are hitting the upper end of the rising trend line so i am taking half off and tight trailing the rest.

nat gas wise it will claw back some losses of recent days but i still dont like it here for the next 1-2months timeframe

I am eyeing up a long position in DGAZ so the ultra short Nat Gas play. Its up alot today but i think technically nat gas looks weak given its broken its 200day and macd is pointing down. Also if you look back historically, July through to Autumn time frame is weak for Nat Gas. 

So i am inclined to be short

to be honest, this is the way the market works. Its a forward pricing mechanism hence the time to buy is when things are reallly bad. Typically the time to buy I stress (such as March 09)

to slighly complicate matters, the Fed has its POMO activity ongoing and this is pumping money into the market and driving/facilitating a recovery.

Have a look at the Investment Clock in the link below which is half way down the page. Arguably, we are at point 8 on the clock

http://www.bethetop5percent.com/2012/866/know-the-time-on-the-investment-clock/

Hi Matt

Just a quick question. I like the approach of a confirming candle in terms of what you have referred to before with the 9EMA. Do you have any thoughts on how to utilise the confirming candle in a downtrend? Take sugar for example. The approach I take is to only short confirmation candles below the 9EMA as the Moving average structure is clearly downwards

At present, Sugar is giving a 9EMA confirmation buy signal. Albeit with just this one indicator

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SUGAR&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p54869772431&a=301894461

Would be interested however to hear your views in the case that there may be instances you take a trade from a confirming candle on the long side of a downtrending instrument

Regards

thankyou

I thought you only accepted positive comments Michael.

You have a habitual knack of being hypocritical

Separately to the rest of the community, I am focusing on objective systems I have coded in Tradestation and there are many more I would like to write. So I am taking a "sabatical" from this type of site to focus on where i believe my strengths lie which is objective trading and not subjective. So good luck to all!!!! (Even Michael!)

In the cycle, QQQ over a sustained period rising faster than the SPYs or DIAs is bullish so I would expect SPYs and DIAs to play catch up

bashing...Matts word originally not mine. In any area in life whether it be work, sport, social, family or other, sharing experiences good and bad helps nurture and develop oneself. I share experiences with my children every day both good and bad. If I only share good experiences with them, then they will not know the good from the bad and what to avoid as they develop. I would rather they learn from my bad experiences or emperical research I have (eg don't eat too many sweets because it messes up your teeth and you will end up getting diabetes) rather than them find out after the event and have only a rear view mirror to look at

Maybe this will explain better the value in providing information both good and bad on not just this forum but in any walk of life

Thanks Russ. This is the type of objective testing which allows traders to make informed judgements on what is viable and not viable to use

So the next step is for a trader to take the good work of Steven, add on one additional variable at a time and retest the sample size to see if there is any improvement.

My bottom line is that every indicator has its 15seconds of glory but there is a requirement to objectively test this with other indicators to identify if there is any winning combination. Otherwise, there is every likelihood of a classic visual illusion from reviewing this or other indicators/patterns that so often happens

Hence my stance on trading objectively and nothing but objectively

The other question that arises is that I recall the newsletter mentioning the reliability of the Evening Star pattern as being high. Under what premise/research was this conclusion made given what analysis is available here? Not a question for you Russ. Moreso of an observation

Good post again Russ!