Hi. Stockcharts has some great predefined scan results of which one is Evening Star patterns. As of close of trade yesterday, BIDU isn't listed in the stocks forming ES Patterns. However thats stockcharts criteria and I don't personally know what the objective ES pattern rules are

...for the SPYs it doesn't work very well. I have monitored the last 8/9 months of SPY maxpain #s around 6-8 days prior to expiry and from memory (although I haven't written it down which is something I wish I had done as it would be emperical) is that it just doesn't work profitably

ie the SPYs have finished way away from the max pain level. Now what will happen in the future and I can already see it, is that it will work in April or May and it will be posted as a great tool.

I keep harping on about it but it needs to be backtested and hopefully I am saving you some money by stating that from my monitoring, it doesn't work well and I would not use it as a guide as to where the SPYs are likely to finish on Options Expiry

Again as per with EW, this is criticism of a tool and if it saves a trader money or gives them reason to be cautious then that is constructive

Looks like a gap higher may well happen Worth pointing out that the newsletters have had more of a bearish bias in my opinion than bullish. Market wants to probe higher

you need to remember algyros that the macro picture shouldn't be bought into the factor in most cases. Even the events in Japan in my opinion were simply an excuse for a sell off after the run up. Not much more than that. Technically we were overbought and that was the oportunistic moment to close longs on the chart.  

Just focus in on the charts and nothing else. Live in a bubble almost. Fed by the way is only bullish for the market right now because of the POMO operations. Markets will rarely retrace materially during POMO phases. Its only when the influx of liquidity diminishes that we will see a more balanced market. But who cares......its all in the charts

I have backtested a lot of this and seasonality around month end has changed. Before month end use to get the 401K buying but now its around 1st of the month which gets the influx. Need to refresh it but that was my initial high level conclusion at the time.

Zillions of systems, zillions of stuff I want to work through. Just zonked out at the mo on other strategies. Will get to it one day!!!

thanks

which one is more reliable ref: Divergence? MACD Histogram or MACD Regular? Histogram is showing divergence whereas regular isn't

Ditch, what are the objective trading results on say a 5 or 10year timeframe (excluding the high volatility abnormal period of Sept-08 through to say June-09) of following the strategy you are advocating.

Seems like you have backtested this as you mention it as beinga  long term investment tool

about the same WoW at 13.5k contracts net long

The interesting ones are the likes of Gold & Silver which have speculators net long whereas the Commercial guys are quite heavily short. I continue to be short Silver here. Its way overbought. No reason to sell but I have strategies saying sell, charts with divergence. Even my wife is telling me to go long Silver so it must be time to short

he probably has a timeshare in Libya thats just gone belly up so hes a bit cheesed off

Only joking. Sure its not a personal crusade. Just his opinion/thoughts. Overall he is a great guy.

Right, I am off for a beer or 6

thats a fair question and i have no idea. But you must remember. His systems are swing trading systems which from memory have a trade lasting 1-7days. Something like that. These end of the world or catastrophe or mini crash or major correction calls are several weeks or 2-3month calls. The 2 are different

Think Michael sums up his systems well. They are not correlated or related to his personal opinion.

This site should have a blogroll column on it. Seriously guys. I just mentioned this earlier today with respect to some guy saying the Dollar is dead. His track record from everything I have searched wasn't good and his the dollar is dead article was simply headline grabbing journalism. Surely you can all see that???

In terms of Peter, his systems are incredibly strong. Out of this world and better than anything I can or probably ever will be able to code. I get PFs 5-20. He gets north of 50 I think. Astronomical. So no doubting his record at objective system writing

In terms of his market calls, I recall 2 previous ones. One was predicting a c20% fall in Q4 2009 and the other was predicting a c20% fall again in Q4 2010. So from my perspective and unless anyone has any empirical evidence to the contrary, its something I wouldn't read anything into.

I stress.....his systems are second to none

Be wary of blogs/reports etc like this. This guy predicted the dollar would rally in a report he did in Feb 07 when the Dollar Index was at 82ish. He said it would head back to the 90 range. For the rest of 2007 it stairstepped down and precipitously

http://www.growthstockwire.com/2264/Time-to-Go-Long-the-Dollar

"Things are rosy" or "steady as she goes" never makes headlines. "Crashes", "Going through the roof" and all that stuff does. These are nothing but journalists. (infact that may be an insult to decent journalists!)

Steve

The last 2 60min bars on the S&P look like firstly a bullish bar followed by the next bar of indecision and now we have just started the 3rd bar. If bearish engulfing, does this qualify as an ES Candlestick pattern? Or am I reading the last 2 candles wrong!?

yes great newsletter. There is as part of the scan facility in stockcharts, a candlestick section with Ev Star and Mrng Star as 2 of the recognised patterns. They have a c75% success rate I read somewhere and their frequency is quite low (there are not many appearing in the stockcharts pre defined scans at the mo)

still short on the SPYs but curling up. On the @ES.D contract, its actually long on my settings

it looks extremely overbought on the daily chart. I shorted a couple of $ below here so not the best of trades so far but am averaging down as its overbought, with divergence and I think it gives back some here.

We shall see

The Inverse H&S measures to at least 1325 if it plays out. Am I interpreting this right? Its a "difficult head" to interpret given the spike down in forming the head

absolutely nothing wrong with taking a profit. How many traders out there would have seen strong gains in the likes of DNN virtually disappear as it fell from 4.50 highs to 2.10 lows in a matter of 4-5 weeks. Better not to marry a position