Take a look at eem, epp, etc. the correction/short we
were hopping for on the SPY may first be first playing out in those
markets. diversification,,,,,
for those of you who swing on longer term horizons
the
alarm bells are sounding inequities
(particularly as F500 corps are starting to trend profit forecasts
downward).
Baltic dry
index is falling (looks like they are shipping for free these days)
while the market climbs.
in combination these signals are ominous. I'm not short
but,,,, got my finger on the button particularly as economic
cheerleading seems to be at a fever pitch on the back of some bits
of suspiciously good economic data.
note: without QE3 commodities (sans oil) are in a down trend.
Also, PM, and PMM complex have been in a corrective or
consolidation phase. some commodities are starting to show basing
patterns - which could be a precursor to more QE.
Well Folks, it's time again for
annual investment predictions. Would very much appreciate your
return thoughts (privately).
Analysis of last years predictions: Failure. My only
prediction that came true was the price of oil. Interest rates are
much lower. Stocks higher. Commodities lower. etc. The good news is
that I simply trend traded a diversity of major markets on multiple
temporal horizons and ignored my own predictions resulting in a
decent 17% gain (with insane whip-saws in returns and portfolio
value along the course of the year).
(Non)Predictions for this year:
1) Investing: The entire investing game is now based on
central bank monetary policy and fluid accounting standards. For
one illustration of this effect see:
For now, large banks (for the US - primary dealers) are
soaking up world record mountains of new and un-repayable gov debt
across the globe. The governments of most developed nations are
hugely bankrupt and are continuing to finance a substantial portion
of their economies GDP with these mountains of new public debt. In
the US, about 15% of our GDP is made up of unrepayable gov deficit
spending. Promises these governments have made to their populations
in the form of future social aid/programs (like social
security/medicare/pensions) are an utter ponzi. Specific longer
term predictions of virtually all investment markets for 2012 are a
waste of time. Trend following a diversity of major markets (with
stops) is the only game with a note that some day the debt bubble
will implode. While trading this implosion could be a huge profit
opportunity, temporal predictions of the this implosion are a waste
of effort. Many famous and successful financial pundits continue to
fall on their face with predictions. This global debt bubble will
continue until the mountain becomes so ridiculous that someone
simply stops playing and runs for an exit - or someone let's slip
the dogs of war. The best invest class for 2011 was farm land with
a return of over 25% - hmmmmmm.
2) Economy: The US is stuck in the "muddle through" economy
(see link below). This will continue with the bottom of the economy
being slowly eroded with poor job creation (the few jobs being
created are largely low paying part time jobs with no benefits) and
the top of the economy being slowly eroded by the central banks
zero interest rate policy (people with savings are unable to
generate/live-off safe investment returns). The rate of job
creation is still not capable of putting all the new entrants to
the economy to work. Social unrest and the Shadow economy will
continue to slowly rise.
3) Interest Rates: Interest rates must remain low or the debt
bubble explodes like a nuclear weapon. Unfortunately, this extended
period of zero interest rate policy has now severely depressed
returns in the private sector bond markets. Needless to say, this
also destroys the desire for the population to save money as there
is virtually no avenue for generating acceptable (5%) principle
safe returns.
4) Corporate Profits: Are once again at a very high historic
level with corporations starting to reduce future expectations. In
specific, according to S&P 500 EPS data in Q4, corporate
profits are now contracting at a 3.8% annual rate. This is a
caution signal.
the real story is UST's. ust's have gone up HUGE,,
like gold. 10yr at historic lows on record interest
rate collapse. global big boyz are running not
walking to usts. this means the big boys know something we
dont. the shit is on deck to hit the fan big if these rates
dont turn up sharpely asap. i mean like global war or eu
bank collapse.
a parabolic move (up or down) in the markets virtually always has a
snap back.
we are currently in a confirmed long term down trend. I
expect the trend will remain down until the fed starts QE3 as
liquidity is going to be sucked out of the markets (humongous bank
and broker) by UST auctions. Next fiscal quarter
they are going to float $660B! can you here the
sucking?
UST's are one of the most liquid investment assets in the world
and hence are currently a safe haven in times of
madness. The buyers of UST's are diverse, all
over the world. Includes, govs, corps, private
citizens, etc.
Buying TLT or TBT or other bond ETFs (there are many, check
) is not 'safe' as they will vary with interest rates however,
can be used to make money in times of broader market risk
aversion. You can be on the wrong or right side of the
trade like any ETF.
Given the debt load of the US these statements could change with
time.
Interesting. Virtually everything is selling off
today,, commodities, currencies, sectors, higher risk bonds, even
much of PM and PMM. The only thing that's holding up
is super safe bonds and gold.
Same behavior as the bear mkt of '08. Hmmmm?
After the little correction ahead I'm going long big.
note the parabolic move starting to slowly emerge on the
chart. I know what side of the trend I want to be
on.... for a clearer look at the parabola forming take
a look at
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
one impressive chart.. May I ask
{25 year chart} of all American Bank Commercial and Industrial Loans.The last 2 times loans contracted and broke down was 1999 & 2007 $SPX
Posted by rreich on 30th of Mar 2017 at 02:37 pm
one impressive chart..
May I ask for the source of the material?
thanks
these aroon setting are cool,,,
SPX
Posted by rreich on 26th of Mar 2017 at 05:34 pm
these aroon setting are cool,,, what are they?
Trading Psychology/Rules..
Posted by rreich on 4th of Mar 2017 at 11:04 am
Just stumbled upon...
http://www.sit1.com/rp/psycho.pdf
Foreign market trend breaks.
Posted by rreich on 28th of Feb 2017 at 05:41 pm
Take a look at eem, epp, etc. the correction/short we were hopping for on the SPY may first be first playing out in those markets. diversification,,,,,
and Gold vs other Commodities long term....
YEN dropping and Gold Moving With It
Posted by rreich on 9th of Feb 2017 at 09:59 am
note the breakout and backtest.
https://nftrh.com/2017/02/08/gold-vs-commodities-is-a-bearish-market-divergence/
more detail on investor intelligence survey....
Investors Intelligent Sentiment Survey
Posted by rreich on 8th of Feb 2017 at 11:09 am
http://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmktbullbear.pdf
swing trader alarm signals - equities
Posted by rreich on 16th of Feb 2012 at 11:05 am
for those of you who swing on longer term horizons the alarm bells are sounding in equities (particularly as F500 corps are starting to trend profit forecasts downward).
2011 Review, 2012 Predictions
Posted by rreich on 25th of Jan 2012 at 12:03 pm
recommendation re the signal and trading
Clarification - long term tools section
Posted by rreich on 22nd of Aug 2011 at 06:36 pm
when would you short the market using the system?
please
what im doing - thoughts appreciated
Posted by rreich on 20th of Aug 2011 at 12:41 pm
this is a very volitile market (large quick moves) thus, more short time horizon trading for fun and porfit.
confirmed longer term short signal
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s236022770]&disp=P
have taken profits on most shorts. maybe one more down. then a bounce for several days due to oversold conditions,,, note divergences.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s234148398]&disp=P
after bounce will load up short if no QE3.
if qe3 then long.
the real story is UST's. ust's have gone up HUGE,, like gold. 10yr at historic lows on record interest rate collapse. global big boyz are running not walking to usts. this means the big boys know something we dont. the shit is on deck to hit the fan big if these rates dont turn up sharpely asap. i mean like global war or eu bank collapse.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s204627799]&disp=P
gld to correct soon (margin hike) on short term parabolic move
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162837217]&disp=P
and pmm flat for almost a year which has me scratching my head.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162592494]&disp=P
ag commodities staging a breakout
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s215774308]&disp=P
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s225531580]&disp=P
due to bad weather.
other commodities getting hit.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s238505279]&disp=P
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s215757290]&disp=P
which says to me no QE soon and economy is going to decay/soft.
thoughts please.
interest rate spread charts
Posted by rreich on 15th of Aug 2011 at 12:52 pm
interesting. Figured out how to track rate spreads using stockcharts.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s241728270]&disp=P
tells an interesting story.
luquidity
FED Day
Posted by rreich on 9th of Aug 2011 at 11:29 pm
a parabolic move (up or down) in the markets virtually always has a snap back.
we are currently in a confirmed long term down trend. I expect the trend will remain down until the fed starts QE3 as liquidity is going to be sucked out of the markets (humongous bank and broker) by UST auctions. Next fiscal quarter they are going to float $660B! can you here the sucking?
closer to a bounce..
Posted by rreich on 5th of Aug 2011 at 03:17 pm
parabolic moves with high volitility can offer a nice scalp. not there yet. need trend change confirmation of some form (even intraday)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162497802]&disp=P
UST's confirming that the flight to safty is softening.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s240935622]&disp=P
Vix has come down a bit but not yet in the safe zone.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s163761350]&disp=P
remember our old friend volitility?
Posted by rreich on 5th of Aug 2011 at 04:26 am
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s163761243]&disp=P
need a fast trigger finger. get those exercises ready.
note the slow sto on the chart. Hmmmmm.
just happened
Question about Bonds
Posted by rreich on 5th of Aug 2011 at 03:46 am
to be awake after too much wine with dinner.
UST's are one of the most liquid investment assets in the world and hence are currently a safe haven in times of madness. The buyers of UST's are diverse, all over the world. Includes, govs, corps, private citizens, etc.
Buying TLT or TBT or other bond ETFs (there are many, check
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show&disp=p
) is not 'safe' as they will vary with interest rates however, can be used to make money in times of broader market risk aversion. You can be on the wrong or right side of the trade like any ETF.
Given the debt load of the US these statements could change with time.
back to bed.
Several observations
Posted by rreich on 4th of Aug 2011 at 12:47 pm
Interesting. Virtually everything is selling off today,, commodities, currencies, sectors, higher risk bonds, even much of PM and PMM. The only thing that's holding up is super safe bonds and gold. Same behavior as the bear mkt of '08. Hmmmm?
A nice bounce is on the way (note prior events).
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162488959]&disp=P
I'll only take a small long position in the strongest sectors after an intraday trend break.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162497802]&disp=P
More significantly, we are about to get a long term EMA cross signaling a major bear market (unless more QE comes along).
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s206018187]&disp=P
spy bounce
Posted by rreich on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 11:27 am
note what happens when low tick readings coorelate with low RSI readings.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s208587727]&disp=P
Ill be going long the strongest sectors with a trendline break on the 60 min.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162497802]&disp=P
after that seems like more weakness ahead until QE3. And, with the UST issueing $660B next quarter (to play catch up) logic would dictate,,,,,
dust
Posted by rreich on 27th of Jul 2011 at 11:46 am
whom-ever recommended this the other day... nice call
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162592494]&disp=P
PSAR sell usually good for a couple days of down.
nice freekin chart et al.
Gold....
Posted by rreich on 26th of Jul 2011 at 11:21 pm
After the little correction ahead I'm going long big.
note the parabolic move starting to slowly emerge on the chart. I know what side of the trend I want to be on.... for a clearer look at the parabola forming take a look at
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s172502148]&disp=P
if you extrapolate the parabola,, ,can you imagine what the next two years could return???
Relative to other investment classes take a look at
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s238082247]&disp=P
ignore this
BioFuels Major Breakout
Posted by rreich on 20th of Jul 2011 at 11:45 am
looks like a data error from the exchange