the real story is UST's. ust's have gone up HUGE,,
like gold. 10yr at historic lows on record interest
rate collapse. global big boyz are running not
walking to usts. this means the big boys know something we
dont. the shit is on deck to hit the fan big if these rates
dont turn up sharpely asap. i mean like global war or eu
bank collapse.
Posted by dallassteve on 20th of Aug 2011 at 05:42 pm
I agree with your thoughts: great charts, too. Hope you
get a few responses over the weekend (maybe not many people on the
blog).
I covered my shorts Friday. We probably do get a bounce.
I am having a hard time using the right triggers to time my
moves, so may sit it out.
I saw a post here suggesting gold could hit a nice round number
before it corrects (say $2000). It does look a bit parabolic,
and I tried shorting GLD last week, but got stopped out.
Long GDX as per the system. Mike Paulenoff suggested that
silver looks stronger than gold right now, and sees more upside
(FWIW). I have been steering clear of silver since its recent
top.
I'd like to hear more analysis about US treasuries. Surely
this last move has been too extreme.
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what im doing - thoughts appreciated
Posted by rreich on 20th of Aug 2011 at 12:41 pm
this is a very volitile market (large quick moves) thus, more short time horizon trading for fun and porfit.
confirmed longer term short signal
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s236022770]&disp=P
have taken profits on most shorts. maybe one more down. then a bounce for several days due to oversold conditions,,, note divergences.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s234148398]&disp=P
after bounce will load up short if no QE3.
if qe3 then long.
the real story is UST's. ust's have gone up HUGE,, like gold. 10yr at historic lows on record interest rate collapse. global big boyz are running not walking to usts. this means the big boys know something we dont. the shit is on deck to hit the fan big if these rates dont turn up sharpely asap. i mean like global war or eu bank collapse.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s204627799]&disp=P
gld to correct soon (margin hike) on short term parabolic move
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162837217]&disp=P
and pmm flat for almost a year which has me scratching my head.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162592494]&disp=P
ag commodities staging a breakout
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s215774308]&disp=P
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s225531580]&disp=P
due to bad weather.
other commodities getting hit.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s238505279]&disp=P
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s215757290]&disp=P
which says to me no QE soon and economy is going to decay/soft.
thoughts please.
response to rreich
Posted by dallassteve on 20th of Aug 2011 at 05:42 pm
I agree with your thoughts: great charts, too. Hope you get a few responses over the weekend (maybe not many people on the blog).
I covered my shorts Friday. We probably do get a bounce. I am having a hard time using the right triggers to time my moves, so may sit it out.
I saw a post here suggesting gold could hit a nice round number before it corrects (say $2000). It does look a bit parabolic, and I tried shorting GLD last week, but got stopped out.
Long GDX as per the system. Mike Paulenoff suggested that silver looks stronger than gold right now, and sees more upside (FWIW). I have been steering clear of silver since its recent top.
I'd like to hear more analysis about US treasuries. Surely this last move has been too extreme.