In the past year or so very low volume spikes (excluding
holidays) seem coorelated to tops BUT the statistical significance
of this statement is way low. Turning to pure
emotion, why does it feel like something significant is about
to happen? I mean, the average volume is almost at the
level of an Xmas holiday.
Still a bit early for the official call but,,,, looks like the
super strong health care and biotech sectors are rolling
over. Reversal candles on the weekly charts
and new PSAR sell signals on the daily charts
As of today's action now have a set of internation ETF with long
term (weekly) PSAR sell signals and major trend line
breaks. I will start scaling in 2x short on
bounces. Especially as this phase of QE is winding
down. I like to play the international markets as they have a
greater price variance than the US markets on swings.
Two years ago I became frustrated with the inefficiency of
referencing AND tracking ETFs/ETNs. I use ETFs/ETNs to diversify
various portfolios across investment areas and temporal horizons.
Of course now there are a lot of valuable ETFs.
So. Using StockCharts have constructed a more efficient
reference tool AND monitoring tool for the array of ETFs/ETNs in
the market in one platform. A hierarchically reference.
It's a simple indicator,,,, but,,, the SPX daily PSAR just
threw a confirmed sell. As such, better than even
probability of lower low immediately ahead.
spent 6+ hours scanning charts spanning the full spectrum of
ETFs last night. European ETFs and several US sectors
are overbought and near record levels on weekly and daily
charts. These must correct soon and indicate some
kind of weakness (possibly mixed) ahead. will take some
shorts here when a pullback starts in hopes of a scalp.
use the 'chartbook' pulldown menu to get to
the charts on sectors. each chart has the
cooresponding short&long etfs to trade listed at the
bottom of the chart.
- financials in a weak down trend on weekly & daily
charts. Will take a small short scalp when the
Psar roles over on the 60 min chart
- consumer goods huge overbought condition weekly and daily.
longer term correction opp. will follow PSAR short as 60 min
rolls over
- biotech huge overbought condition on weekly and daily.
longer term correction opp. will wait for daily to roll over to
take short
- telecom overbought on weekly and daily. small
opportunity, to for it to develop
- health care overbought on weekly chart. small opportunity,
wait for it to develop
SZK is thinly traded but the market maker takes the trades in a
timely fashion at respectable bid/ask. only
alternative seems to be to sell short the IYK
until QE2 is done am cautious with shorts. this will
probably end up being a signal for a broader market correction as
most (larger) sectors stay fairly closely coorelated with the
SPX.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
long term sell signal set up
Nature of the decline only corrective in nature?
Posted by rreich on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 11:12 pm
new 13/34 EMA sell signal + 50R sell + slow sto in solid decline on the daily chart
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162488959]&disp=P
Weekly chart could throw a PSAR sell next week - then we got a new ballgame
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s206018187]&disp=P
AGREE
NAT Gas
Posted by rreich on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 12:29 pm
HERES THE UPDATED CHARTS.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s213645069]&disp=P
But they have been on an impressive run. nice $
there were some nice ETFs for producers FCGL FCGS
NAT Gas
Posted by rreich on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 12:05 pm
but not displaying on SC currently. See bottom of chart.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s213645069]&disp=P
NYSE Volume
Posted by rreich on 31st of May 2011 at 11:06 am
Have you guys been watching the moving average volume on the NYSE. Note the bottom of the chart and the red vertical lines coorelating to price moves.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s208587727]&disp=P
This is nuts!
In the past year or so very low volume spikes (excluding holidays) seem coorelated to tops BUT the statistical significance of this statement is way low. Turning to pure emotion, why does it feel like something significant is about to happen? I mean, the average volume is almost at the level of an Xmas holiday.
short the decay
Nat Gas (UNG)
Posted by rreich on 31st of May 2011 at 12:44 am
actually , If you can get a broker to borrow the shares shorting the decay is phat.
be careful,
Nat Gas (UNG)
Posted by rreich on 30th of May 2011 at 01:48 pm
the nat gas etf/etns have lots of natural decay. what if they never turn positive in the long term..???
note the relationship of NATGAS to UNG and H2 of '09.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s213644424]&disp=P
Might want to look into FCGL or FCGS as a related play
Sectors Rolling Over
Posted by rreich on 24th of May 2011 at 09:46 pm
Still a bit early for the official call but,,,, looks like the super strong health care and biotech sectors are rolling over. Reversal candles on the weekly charts and new PSAR sell signals on the daily charts
health care
weekly: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s223122419]&disp=P
daily: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s223122716]&disp=P
biotech
weekly: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s225639769]&disp=P
daily: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s225639776]&disp=P
etfs to short on the charts....
For Longer Term Swing Traders - International
Posted by rreich on 23rd of May 2011 at 06:36 pm
As of today's action now have a set of internation ETF with long term (weekly) PSAR sell signals and major trend line breaks. I will start scaling in 2x short on bounces. Especially as this phase of QE is winding down. I like to play the international markets as they have a greater price variance than the US markets on swings.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218729076]&disp=P
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s234745447]&disp=P
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218730483]&disp=P
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218732904]&disp=P
More broadly looks like luqidity is leaving risk..
ETF/ETN Reference + Monditoring Tool
Posted by rreich on 22nd of May 2011 at 10:53 pm
Folks
Two years ago I became frustrated with the inefficiency of referencing AND tracking ETFs/ETNs. I use ETFs/ETNs to diversify various portfolios across investment areas and temporal horizons. Of course now there are a lot of valuable ETFs.
So. Using StockCharts have constructed a more efficient reference tool AND monitoring tool for the array of ETFs/ETNs in the market in one platform. A hierarchically reference.
Location =
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058
Have a couple hundred hours more to put in to complete phase 1 but,,,,,
Feedback desired (privately)
Cheers
fabulous
US$ COT
Posted by rreich on 21st of May 2011 at 02:27 pm
looks like were in the ball park for upside.
any easy trade.
thanks VERY much
international trade - Latin America
Posted by rreich on 16th of May 2011 at 03:48 pm
Latin america just threw a long term short via the weekly PSAR and via a major trend line break
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218732904]&disp=P
might wait for a bit of a bounce first.... for confirmation
daily chart looking short as well.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218639633]&disp=P
related ETFs are at the bottom of the graph
Sell Signals
Posted by rreich on 12th of May 2011 at 04:19 pm
It's a simple indicator,,,, but,,, the SPX daily PSAR just threw a confirmed sell. As such, better than even probability of lower low immediately ahead.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162488959]&disp=P
also, bullish percent indicators for most markets still in negative territory
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s167561916]&disp=P
with the SPX weekly PSAR still on a buy a solid probability that any sell off will be weak.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s206018187]&disp=P
Fairly compelling bullish indicator
Posted by rreich on 9th of May 2011 at 01:05 pm
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s163482147]&disp=P
cheers
THanks
weekly COT Commercials for US$
Posted by rreich on 1st of May 2011 at 09:59 pm
thanks for being diligent about posting this every week.
You are a STAR!
one impresive uptrend..... got to break at some point
Insurance is CHEAP
Posted by rreich on 29th of Apr 2011 at 01:59 pm
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162497802]&disp=P
Several US sectors insanely overbought
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s223113846]&disp=P
Some international mkts hugely overbought
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218732617]&disp=P
but when??????
more evidence
fwiw....
Posted by rreich on 28th of Apr 2011 at 09:29 am
also,, hardy thanks for your work and postings.
spent 6+ hours scanning charts spanning the full spectrum of ETFs last night. European ETFs and several US sectors are overbought and near record levels on weekly and daily charts. These must correct soon and indicate some kind of weakness (possibly mixed) ahead. will take some shorts here when a pullback starts in hopes of a scalp.
sector opportunities
Posted by rreich on 26th of Apr 2011 at 08:20 pm
as requested.
for charts in support of the notes below
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show&disp=p
use the 'chartbook' pulldown menu to get to the charts on sectors. each chart has the cooresponding short&long etfs to trade listed at the bottom of the chart.
- financials in a weak down trend on weekly & daily charts. Will take a small short scalp when the Psar roles over on the 60 min chart
- consumer goods huge overbought condition weekly and daily. longer term correction opp. will follow PSAR short as 60 min rolls over
- biotech huge overbought condition on weekly and daily. longer term correction opp. will wait for daily to roll over to take short
- telecom overbought on weekly and daily. small opportunity, to for it to develop
- health care overbought on weekly chart. small opportunity, wait for it to develop
- real estate, daily overbought,
- tech, daily overbought.
more....
Longer Term Sector Trades
Posted by rreich on 26th of Apr 2011 at 12:45 pm
SZK is thinly traded but the market maker takes the trades in a timely fashion at respectable bid/ask. only alternative seems to be to sell short the IYK
until QE2 is done am cautious with shorts. this will probably end up being a signal for a broader market correction as most (larger) sectors stay fairly closely coorelated with the SPX.
Longer Term Sector Trades
Posted by rreich on 26th of Apr 2011 at 11:30 am
Bullish Percent for Consumer Goods indicating a top. Reliable system. Watch for the MA11 cross. PSAR confirmation valueable.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s223114339]&disp=P
Also, Biotech wipe out.... Dont know why
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s225639776]&disp=P
new recovery records
Posted by rreich on 15th of Apr 2011 at 10:18 am
vix at recovery lows.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s163761243]&disp=P
volume on holiday
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s170821224]&disp=P
Party like it's 2007!
;-)