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Charts

Posted by racerick on 14th of Nov 2014 at 07:18 am

This is oriented to some of the newer traders here. Notice on the 5 year oil chart posted below in the oil section of the overnite report all the horizontal lines. I know most of you see how many trend lines Steve and Matt, and some of the other more experienced traders in here, use in their presentations. After trading for nearly 40 years I can tell you without a doubt, that learning to use both diagonal and horizontal lines is the single best tool you can use.

Most of you have seen the great results that Steve and Matt have gotten, even on real short term (ie 1, 3, and 5 minute) charts using a simple trend line. Yesterdays breakdown on the SPX was just one example. Don't get caught up in using a million indicators. The secret to it is don't get lazy and just sit there staring at your screens. Be constantly drawing them. You'll be amazed at the different trades you start to see and the best thing about it is that they work on any time frame, for intra-day trades to long term. I did a series of live classes to a large daytrading group a number of years ago and in one of them just using a plain chart and trend lines on a one minute chart, had some pretty serious results. I think I've still got it, if anyone would like a copy, just pm me and I'll send it over.

Overnite Market

Posted by racerick on 14th of Nov 2014 at 05:40 am

Pretty wild night. USD broke out of it's pennant and then came all the way back down to test it's breakout. Gold got whacked back down to 1150 and hasn't been able to mount much of a bounce, still not able to get back over S1 as I write.

Oil got hit for another dollar down to $73.25, which was close to a support area on the weekly,  and has bounced about a point back up, slightly above it's close. May have put in a short term bottom here, but we'll see. LOL, It started bouncing about the time the IEA came out saying oil could fall even more. All we need now to get it really bouncing is for Gartman to say it's going to $50. Oil 5 year Weekly Chart

Bond futures still in their tight range.

Index futures have been up a little, most of night. USD/YEN made new highs

Oil

Posted by racerick on 13th of Nov 2014 at 12:19 pm

Oil just hit 75.03 few min ago. Trying to bounce off 75 whole number a little. Wouldn't be surprised if they undercut that number and ran stops there though.

Overnite Report

Posted by racerick on 13th of Nov 2014 at 06:01 am

Index futures have been up most the night with the ES hitting new highs at 2043 around 1:30. Very little pull back off of that so far.

Most other commodities, USD and interest rates have been pretty quiet and in a fairly narrow range, with the exception of gold, which dropped almost $12 back down to it's support at 1155ish. Made for a nice entry and has bounced since, but having some trouble with the central pivot so far at the 1163 level.

Oil looks vulnerable to more selling here, tried a weak bounce off it's close at the LOD yesterday, but Brent Crude broke 80 and has been weak all night, so not much bounce at all. Right now there's less than a $3 spread between Brent and West Texas crude, typically it's $5-6, so something is going to have to give here soon. Probably a good arbitrage situation here.

USD and early am update

Posted by racerick on 11th of Nov 2014 at 03:43 am

Dollar back up over 88 here and USD/JPY just made a new 8 year high and looks like it's trying to flag. Oil just broke lower again back down to 76.60 at the moment. NatGas all the way back down to it's breakout from last week. Reports are cold wave may not be as bad as expected. Covered my short UNG calls and stock when the futures hit the daily 200ma, middle of the afternoon, looks like a bad mistake now.

Gold managing to hang in here between 1145 and 1150 so far past few hours. SPX futures up a few points. Based on usd/jpy action, the upper target of 2077 on spx looking more and more viable. Hard to believe we might make it in basically one straight shot up from the V bottom.

LOL, BABA Just announced they did $2 BYN worth of merchandise in the 1st hour of China's big Shopping Day Festival.

Gold

GDX and GDXJ hanging around halfway of Friday's candle

Posted by racerick on 10th of Nov 2014 at 12:24 pm

Futures look like trying to bounce off 50% fib of Fridays action 1155ish and because 15min 200ma is right there also may give us decent bounce. Keeping real tight stop though, not bouncing real hard some far.

NatGas

Posted by racerick on 5th of Nov 2014 at 09:00 am

NatGas came all the way back down to it's breakout line.

NatGas

Posted by racerick on 5th of Nov 2014 at 06:26 am

Wow, NatGas broke thru resistance line I mentioned yesterday and made one of the biggest quickest runs I've ever seen it make. Pulling back a little now, about as fast as it went up.

GOLD

Posted by racerick on 5th of Nov 2014 at 05:33 am

Gold making another swan dive early this am, dollar going straight up. Maybe world thinks the election results bullish for US.

Two charts here - 1st one - may want to save in your S/C portfolio - compares USD to a lot of different asset classes - 2nd one primarily a 15yr GOLD chart with support levels - What's interesting about the 2nd chart is that if you notice the SPX has generally followed the other commodity classes until about 2011 and while everything else has rolled over SPX as we know it has kept going.

Received a solicitation from Harry Dent this weekend for one of his products and though I don't subscribe to any of his material, I do respect and have read some of his studies he's done on demographic trends. He's calling for gold to hit 700 range by 2016. And then this am saw this post from Peter Brandt re GOLD - http://peterlbrandt.com/chart-day-gold-breaking/

 

HA

Posted by racerick on 4th of Nov 2014 at 04:50 pm

We'll definitely have to move trigger point up on HA again. Another big move up today. The November puts on it, which expire the 22nd, are cheap. They're thin though so if we get trigger will probably have to pay the Ask side. The 18's closed at .25 and the 17's at .125. 19's they're asking .65 but no open interest. Might be less risk playing the puts on it versus shorting stock if it ever triggers. May need binoculars to see 9ma soon, lol.

FEYE

Posted by racerick on 4th of Nov 2014 at 04:19 pm

Our old friend FEYE getting whacked on earnings. Though not profitable yet, rev's were up huge. May be one to watch for a bounce next few days. Historically has had pretty good support in the 25-26 area.

NatGas and UGAZ

Posted by racerick on 4th of Nov 2014 at 03:47 pm

For those of you who are still long UGAZ, we're running into some pretty good intermediate resistance here on Natgas - See 180 day 4hr chart and 15min charts below. Taking some of my UGAZ off the table here - 40% move in 5 days hard to beat. Thanks Matt and Steve.

Oil

Posted by racerick on 4th of Nov 2014 at 05:16 am

Oil getting murdered here overnite. Crazy trading. All over the place. Just hit 75.84. My next support line on weekly at about .50 lower. Sheesh, just bounced .40 while I was writing this in less than a minute.

Update - Now has bounced $1.20 in 4 -5min candles. Maybe we'll get a reversal candle on the daily today if it keeps this up.

Oil Making new lows

Posted by racerick on 3rd of Nov 2014 at 02:27 pm

Just broke 79

That's funny

Puking Camel pattern

Posted by racerick on 3rd of Nov 2014 at 02:26 pm

Nat Gas looking strong this am so far

Posted by racerick on 31st of Oct 2014 at 06:26 am

Our  UGAZ looking pretty spiffy so far in pre-mkt

WOW - GOLD and other futures

Posted by racerick on 31st of Oct 2014 at 03:33 am

Took a little nap before I got up to start trading tonite. Wake up at 2:30am and looks like all the excitement started around 12:30 EST. Dow futures up over 200 points and SPX up over 13. both just backing off slightly from R2.  DX up strong again and GOLD just tagged 1166,20.

Asian markets up big. BOJ surprised markets with fresh stimulus - Nikei up 5%.

ES trading over 2013 and hit 2016.75 - all-time new high. If we happened to stay up here, we could gap open to new highs on the market. Nothing really backing off much yet, but still early.

Z

Posted by racerick on 30th of Oct 2014 at 09:53 am

Gapped down big

ASGN got nailed on earnings - fortunately didn't have and good example why not to hold into earnings

Been a crazy night

Posted by racerick on 30th of Oct 2014 at 05:37 am

SPX and DOW futures were up nicely after European open with DOW futures hitting yesterday's high, then about 4am the selling started and both were down pretty good by 5:15. Gold's been selling off pretty much all night hitting 1201 at it's lowest so far, trying to bounce a little here, and Oil been following since around 2am. Oil trying to hold S1 here now, but could just be making bear flag.

Dollar has been strong most of night.

For all you gold bugs, if any left, might want to take a look at this DUST chart. Nice cup and handle that measures a lot higher. So I'd be careful.

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