Matt, are you saying that we are going to break the support at 805 with wave 5? I am confused about which wave 5 (up or down) you are referring to here. From your chart the move down looks impulsive, so I am thinking that the counter trend rally is over then.

We bounced off the 61% retracement at 840 on Matt's charts. Your chart shows that the upper trend line is around 835. Either way, we are still within the counter trend rally channel, I reckon.

I don't think we need to rationalize the US government's action. Obama chose the same kind of people we had in the Clinton administration. During those years China and Japan were heavily favored in our foreign trade. Now Chinese and Japanese own the majority of the US national debt, hence they dictate the terms of our economic policy. Why would anybody wonder then that we are following the Japanese model of handling the debt bubble crisis? As Matt says, keep it simple!

companies that may go bankrupt

Matt, I can feel you are right on that call. Thanks for that update!

Roger Wiegand uses the double of the official statistics to get the actual numbers. He posts on kitco.com, his postings are rather eye-opening.

You've just outlined the reason why the market did not break down from here, but decided to move up instead. It's clean now in the retrospect.

A couple of interesting observations about the bubble of US treasuries.

the link

Is a break-out from a triangle, such as today's, usually going to be retested at a later date? I am wondering where to place my stops from today's breakout. Thanks.

I bought GG and BVN on their breakout from the pattern this morning.  So I am 80% bullish in my account, too.

Could you post the same chart for $DJR or $IYT? I would rather look for patterns on the index instead.

Matt, what's the stop loss value for the 6-minute SRS system? You mentioned that the stop gain value of 24%. I am sorry if I missed the other number on the blog. Thanks!

Thank you for an update, I like your trading philosophy and perspectives very much!

It looks like wave 3 of 5 to me.

The MA(200) =66.20 for AMZN, the upside risk is not big.

I was not the author  of that piece of analysis, I merely reposted what Gerald Clifton wrote on WSW here. By the way, I miss his posts and don't have subscription to that site any more. Could anyone repost his COT report analyses here as they become available, please?

Yes, we are coming close to such a rally. Perhaps, in a week?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/feb032009.html

See explanation and an example of a COT report analysis in the toggle. See under my handle for more examples of this sort. The computation of the net short is pretty simple: take the short positions of commercials and subtract their longs.

Congratulations of ripping off the financials, I haven't had that luck. The risk is not too big here till we bottom. They are very volatile, yet docile at the long run. IMO.

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm or google for commitment of traders report.