3815 should be a target for wave 3 down.

Could you post a chart, please? I do not recognize this comment based on any EW analysis I am familiar with.

rbreese, momentum does not support a rally short-term. There is a low-compression squeeze on 30-min which could propagate into a short-covering bounce. A bigger rally will be dependent on how today is closed. 

From the EW perspective, if a drop from yesterday is not followed through, a 3-wave move lower could be forming a zig-zag formation.

DigiNomad, correct, on 4-hour and longer time frames the stops are above the price in a downtrend. I see a completed sequence of waves to the upside on /ES at Feb highs, however not yet on /NQ. /NQ might want to have one more push up to form a lower high to complete its sequence of waves to the upside.

DigiNomad, are you selling butterfly spreads, bear call spreads, or just calls as part of your process as the price moves lower?

I expected a trade short from one of the systems. Perhaps, there will be one from a higher price. I am short based on the spread NQ to ES (short /NQ, long /ES) based on the most likely mapping from the EW analysis.

That pattern could be waves 1, 2 and beginning of 3 down. A megaphone pattern is rarely a continuation pattern, as I far as I recall from Tom Bulkowski's encyclopedia of chart patterns.

long or short?

fredsaid, watch for a positive close tomorrow. It could be a hanging man, and a reversal to the downside as a bearish option. The descending trendline connecting recent highs should be a strong resistance, and a stop for swing shorts not far above.

Also, watch TLT for continuation of its uptrend. Indexes cannot rise with TLT falling.

James, a case in point for the next bar entry on an entry for the bear long subsystem. Like today, when the price gapped up from yesterday's close, how would an entry look like? A limit order with staggered prices?

yes, if you have a better entry the following day, then your entry is early.  For the third entry on swing trade systems that is seldom the case, IMO.

James, is DVDS short a mid-level or high level (exhaustion) short system? Was the bull exhaustion subsystem close to triggering on this rally a couple of weeks ago?

Another winning trade on DVDS Short system is panning out. The projected wave 5 scenario a week ago was at odds with this trade being 100% winning. Now the system has been proven a better trader.

James, we mean the same thing. By bounce trades I mean very short trades of one to 3 days. As such, the price is not likely to go far on these trades. Thank you very much for your input!

James, I am a bit unclear on this difference. My own definition of trending means that DMI indicator is above 25. The distinction between impulsive and corrective in EW speak is related but not exactly pertinent, as we have seen last month and this month (the price could be trending and still be corrective). The price above resistance or below support like on Friday or today is suggestive but not indicative either if the ATR is small. Any comments?

James, this discussion is informative. My last questions is regarding swing trades versus simple bounce trades, and I second your observation on the difference between swing traders and others. I thought the difference would go in the opposite direction: i.e., swing traders before the close and all others at the open. And the signal before the close will play out on the next day if a trade is a swing trade and not as much if it is a bounce trade.

James, a related question is, Is there any way to know whether a prospective trade going to be following the trend or counter-trend based on your trend indicator(s) used by the system? For example, today's trade is still along the bullish trend.  If the trend changes tomorrow, there is a high chance that the new trend my last for some time, so reversing the position or at least hedging might be a profitable strategy. When a new trend is close to be exhausted, the hedge is removed for a profit, and the initial trade is still in play.

James, I am sure you have investigated this option. I am curious whether the next bar option is similar to the previous bar close option: that is, 30 minutes before the close. This option might be ideal even though it might get a bit worse stats. Or the best guess on the trade 15 minutes before the close. Any comments on this one?

DigiNomad, what signals do you use to enter your swing positions and to trigger your entries? A couple of example might be instructive. Thanks in advance!

Matt, could you add a chart of SPX with TLT plotted on the same pane for swift comparison in your newsletter,  please?