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naked puts, lol! You are only buying naked puts, right?

call credit spread. Margin on /NG is huge, but with a CCS you could trade /NG with a small risk to your account on a smaller margin. Go out by at least 30-45 days out, 60 will be ok too to reduce time decay. I paid $1,600 for a CSS  into March.

Try trading through a CCS on /NG futures instead.

on the day before, to be exact. 11880 and 11680 are two targets for /NQ to restart the elevator up!

I have noticed a symmetry break on 15-min charts that you posted, Steve. A lower high today or tomorrow is expected now. The next rally should be sold.

/NQ also exceeded the low

Posted by junkie on 30th of Jan 2023 at 10:47 am

/NQ also exceeded the low from Friday today, pointing to a significant high in place from last week.

I am now expecting a drop into Thursday's big 3 earnings reports, as is customary in front on earnings reports.

Excellent timing and perfect execution on your part! Supply and demand zone produce very good gains when used in trading.

/NG nat gas futures hold

Posted by junkie on 30th of Jan 2023 at 05:13 am

/NG nat gas futures hold the 2.70 range after a gap down. If that range holds into the close and tomorrow, that should mark a short-term bottom. I am playing it with a CCS (call credit spread) to limit my risks in case the range does not hold.

My trading plan for today is this. The manipulation has panned out as advertised with this overnight drop. If we hold the Friday's range into the open, the gap should be bought for a day trade. We may or may not post a one more higher high, as was the case on 11/14. Otherwise, we risk retesting the uptrend line around 11900 on /NQ and 4000 on /ES. That retest should be bought for a bounce trade.

With a cluster of Fib resistance at 4100 on /ES, we might have completed wave 5 of 3 on 4-hour charts. A pullback may not be shallow into Thursday, when big earnings reports are due. 

You are welcome. The minimal target for CX is 5.83 based on my cycle indicator chart (the solid red line). 

GDX had a reaction from its supply zone and broke its uptrend line. RSI is divergent.

It should pull back below 28.80 before continuing higher.

CX is inside the supply zone 5.31 to 5.52 on the daily charts. There is likely going to be a reaction from it, but pullbacks are to be bought.

CX: momentum indicators are all positive, and there is no divergence on the daily charts.

Thank you for your guidance,

Have a nice weekend everyone 

Posted by junkie on 27th of Jan 2023 at 04:08 pm

Thank you for your guidance, coach Steve!

A long symmetric triangle on

Short term very far from VWAP

Posted by junkie on 27th of Jan 2023 at 03:47 pm

A long symmetric triangle on Monday or Tuesday under today's highs that looks like a bull flag but will fail due to resistance, will do the job of engineering a meeting between the two. Just one idea from a previous episode of how this could be done!

I think that Matt's strong trend shallow pullbacks subsystem should have triggered long on this relentless melt-up  :( It would have done better than myself in managing being in and out of the positions!

This is my take on

TICK pivots on ES

Posted by junkie on 27th of Jan 2023 at 03:32 pm

This is my take on this. We will probably take a third entry today or on Monday. I expect some volatility next week due to distribution of gains from smart money under the guises of Fed speak or FOMC gyrations. 

Why short? The move up is corrective in nature, so every one or two weeks we retest either boundary of the range. That will be a chance to close shorts.

I wish one of Matt's long systems were to have triggered so that we could have nice official gains on the long side too. I am running a PCS to hedge my long SPY puts as part of my hedging strategy.

/NQ targets are 12335 (December highs) and about 13000.

There is very little volume

TICK pivots on ES

Posted by junkie on 27th of Jan 2023 at 03:11 pm

There is very little volume on the volume profile between 4115 and  4195 too.

They ought to squeeze all shorts first.  The December and November highs are good targets to hunt for stops. It is a good risk to reward ratio, since they could dump their positions overnight or after a big news release.

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