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Great trading RB! 

The part I saw of that said he indicated to buy on Dec 20th and that there would be strength into early January. Pretty consistent with regular December seasonality. It is all guesswork, looks brilliant if it correct during an hour, day, etc. Looks wrong if a particular hour, day, etc. goes against it. Regular seasonal strength in December is the norm, last time it wasn't strong was in 2018 when we had that decline into Christmas eve which finished off a 20% correction from the prior highs over months. 

I just trade my own plan. Looking like a chop fest to me with gaps on both sides. My thought is rangebound here, not a blastoff, not a crash. All depends on the timeframe and individual definitions of one's plan. The people behind the curtain running the market, I called them "Oz" will come back and burn both sides of the market when they decide its time. Just taking advantage of what they give, when they give it. The reversion to mean stuff is great because the odds are very good of success. I crack up at the reasons the market is up or down on a given day. Just playing the numbers is the way to go for me. Only reason I'm aware of the economic events is because they help me with my buying and selling  decisions in combination with my other rules. 

Great work Matt! Thank you!

SPX got to 3,890 today,

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 21st of Dec 2022 at 03:04 pm

SPX got to 3,890 today, there is a gap fill at 3,895s waiting above and another at 3,995s. 

Wonder if gdp and/or jobs reports will fill one of these gaps tomorrow? 

First one below at 3,821s now. Managing risk on both sides accordingly. 

3,748.53. Many think it is higher because of the chart timeframe not being zoomed in enough. I write the close prices down and watch every gap. 

I posted the Nov 9 and 10th prices and info in a prior post some days back. 

Earnings reports boosting the market:

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 21st of Dec 2022 at 08:35 am

Earnings reports boosting the market: Good reaction to NKE and FDX reports. 

New gap will be opening at 3,821.62 for SPX cash. Great headfake getting people to stay too long hoping for that first gap fill lower, never got there. Will be interesting to see if this fades or we have a gap and go. Nobody knows til it happens. Risk/reward.

Gaps above as prior referenced at 3,895.75 and also 3,995.32.

12/20/22-(excerpt taken from my trading

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 20th of Dec 2022 at 09:20 am

12/20/22-(excerpt taken from my trading journal)

I often think about how and when to allocate capital in terms of investment considerations. 

It bears a priority reminder that I should also consider how I allocate my emotional capital/energy. Time is the most valuable of resources, I must invest it wisely. 

Enjoy your day. 

It doesn't count as a gap fill for the cash market (regular trading hours 9:30 am-4 pm) Means it will likely trade there again. Be it today,  another day, or next year. Timing is always the rub with gaps. And nobody can really know. All the guessing is a waste to me. 

SPX sold out of my

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 19th of Dec 2022 at 04:20 pm

SPX sold out of my hedges (SPXS) on that 3,800 area test. The gap is down at 3,748 for the full fill though I figured close enough with how oversold it is shorter term. Eat meat not crumbs, not pushing it in the hole.

I'm long a second entry with the SPY system and using SPXL as my instrument. All I can do is position for risk/reward. 

"Repelled at vwap" in my

SPX 5 min

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 03:07 pm

"Repelled at vwap" in my Steve voice lol

SPX we moved down to

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 01:55 pm

SPX we moved down to the bottom pivot on my longer term chart at the lows today. Needs to rally now at least hold these lows. 

Wow, I had not heard that before. I think there would be some good in more breaks from work in general. 

$SPX on days like today,

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:50 am

$SPX on days like today, even after hedging off some of the risk, I have to keep in mind how stretched things are away from the 5 and 9 day moving averages. Honestly frustrating it can take weeks to climb up like that and then give a bunch back in 3 days. How do they say "stairs up, elevator down". Classic:

I don't know how interesting it was haha That's cool, thank you for sharing. I've enjoyed talking to some guys who were around in the last generations in markets. Yes,times have changed though depending on how you are set up, they don't make it easy for doing business with all the hoops you have to jump through to stay compliant doing the actual business. And with so much risk for not getting that part right, it created a lot of stress. 

..couldn't just sit back and not help people rebalance their portfolios when the opportunity was there to do so (during times of extremes). A good fit for the clients though ultimately I burned out after a few decades. I started my financial career in banking, those were fun times. I remember when 7% money market accounts were around and being hungry to bank everyone in the city. Our teams did some amazing things, all in serving our customers' best interests. 

I think the good thing about looking back through the past to the present is I gain perspective in life. There are times when you have to navigate a lot of difficulty for a period, though it is a chance to grow as a person, there is a lot of good on the other side of it, and a lot to be grateful for everyday. 

That year (2018) was the last unseasonal December for stocks. I remember because I worked 14 hours that day buying stocks for clients on Christmas Eve. We were down about 20% from the highs at that point. It turned out to be an amazing buy and period to come with that inventory. Just terrible having to do that over the holidays though it was what it was. Stuff like that is why I'm glad to no longer be in the business. It is hard to outperform machines with all the regulation too, tons of work. You need a team and I didn't want to hire people above and beyond the support staff for my practice. 

DIS I bought some at

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 09:48 am

DIS I bought some at 90.40s gap fill area. I know the chart is horrible. Accumulating longer term swing as I think it does well at some point. They invested well in streaming and the pandemic shutdowns will clear up eventually. They have some other great businesses in Marvel movies and ESPN. The parks perform. Lots to like when sentiment improves. 

I sold a bunch in 120s prior and have posted about it. Trim and trail as usual

For sure, I appreciate you. Please find us another diamond pattern soon   

Gap fills, timing, and trading..(an

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 07:58 am

Gap fills, timing, and trading..(an excerpt from my trading journal 12/16/22) 

Today is interesting and I am skeptical of the 3,748 filling at some point, though with the market gapping down it is at one of the support zones. So it doesn't have to fill today. If it does, cool, though can't rule out today being flat or otherwise choppy because of quad witching and other conditions. One thing I always have to be mindful of is being married to my desired outcome.

 Yesterday was a perfect example. I took some good profits at the 3,934 area and left open 1/4 of my hedge position. The SPX then fell to 3,879 to then bounce to 3,907 or so where I bought back my hedge to get me back to 50% hedged in my trading account. The message of the market had changed and it ended up closing below the 3,900 support opening things up for another leg down. 

Facing the same difficulty this morning as prior referenced in my other journal notes, I'm taking some of that hedge inventory off with good profits and will leave 1/4 open again in case the market decides to drop further. I'm not expecting anything though, will just see what happens. There have been more than a few days this year where all the action occurs overnight and there isn't much to do during the day once I'm repositioned. 

Have a great day and best of success! 

On November 9th , the SPX closed at 3,748.57. It opened at 3,859.89 the next day and that was the low of the day. The market closed at 3,956.37 on November 10th. One can miss this if not zooming in to another time frame. The market never looked back and filled the gap at 3,748.57 so far. 

Nov 10, 2022 3,859.89 3,958.33 3,859.89 3,956.37 3,956.37 5,781,260,000
Nov 09, 2022 3,810.94 3,818.20 3,744.22 3,748.57 3,748.57 4,645,010,000

SPX What is a gap?

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 06:43 am

SPX What is a gap? A gap is created by a difference between the opening and close price of a stock, index, etc. I'm trading the S&P 500 "cash market" (regular business hours 9:30am-4pm, so that is what I mean by the "cash" market). 

This morning is a perfect example of a gap, as yesterday the market closed at 3,895.75. If the current price action continues, there will be a new gap that is open there and price would have to rally upward to fill it. There was a gap from the previous day as well and it is at 3,995.32 that is still open as well. 

This same behavior can also occur in the other direction. There are open gaps below from the recent rally at 3,748.57 and 3,583.07. Sometimes people are looking at a different chart/timeframe and they miss the actual gap fill number. I've been tracking these for many years and just simply write the number down when it occurs. So I already know what I'm looking for without even looking at a chart. 

I can then match it up with other areas of supply/demand and ultimately see at what points the market responds to buying/selling. Certainly not a perfect world, though gaps have saved/made me a lot of money over the years. The challenge is always timing of the gap fills, some close quickly, and others take weeks/months to fill. There is some data that 92% of them do fill though, so dealing with probabilities as a trader/investor as I consider making my trading/investment decisions, I must respect that degree of risk on either side. 

Yesterday wasn't ultra surprising given that the market gapped up on a Fed event, why not gap down to reacting to another. It all sounds good anyway for a reason "why" haha

This is part of the difficulty of trading/investing, the timing, especially if trading it becomes a little tougher to get it exactly right, so what I do sometimes is just take good profits, or trim and trail my position as I don't know if the full gap fill will occur on a particular day. Eat meat and not crumbs. Anyone telling you that they are timing it perfectly in every case isn't being truthful imo.


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