The business leaders will let us know through their actions when
things are getting better long term by buying company stock with
their own money. Jamie Dimon is my signal. I am watching for things
like that, m&a, bankruptcies, higher employment, etc. The money
gets made putting everyone back to work. Trading environment until
then for me.
If they happen to run this up into the 4,200s or better, I'll be
glad to consider selling them all my 3,000s inventory in long term
accounts.
Like Shakira says, the puts don't lie. I'm on today. 11% on my
labd size, now peel some off and ride the rest. Scooped some labu
in case they want to rally it some. Risk/reward. Same instruments
everyday, just change allocation %
SPX Fantastic S&P500 bull market analog chart. All 3 bull
markets since 1998 are overlapped here. The yellow line is the tech
boom bust of 1998-2001. The blue line is the housing boom bust of
2005-2008. The white line is our current boom bust from 2019-2022.
If the bottom is not in yet then a major low in Oct would be a
great opportunity to buy.
Second attachment shows a committed trader set up at Whole Foods
SPX QQQ To keep some context on what's going on earnings wise,
here are some reactions after earnings as of last
evening:
CRSR down 11% SAM down 9% ISRG down 12% TTD down 6% SIVB down 8%
STX down 9% SNAP down 26%
Caution is warranted given how overbought things are here and
the economic backdrop. Also, the more we rally into the FOMC, the
more pressure the Fed will have to be more aggressive. Normally the
market would drop into the FOMC to pressure the Fed to be more
dovish. I think there "could" be some more gas in the tank once a
pullback comes and this settles a bit. I'd like to see how the
market reacts after a 100 point SPX runoff and getting below 3,900.
That 3,860 or even 3,830 gap look reasonable.
XBI Seeing about 2 million dollars today trading in $80 strike
puts for August 19th near the ask. I remember that $78 area being a
prior major support, so $80 target seems reasonable if a pullback
materializes. A 62 RSI here now and came off a high yesterday of
86. Looks to need a rest. For this reason my allocation % is
leaning to LABD over LABU on a relative basis. I like LABU for
another push up, though I think it needs rest here for a bit as
well as the market.
Agree with anywhere here to the gap 4,017 area is where the
pullback will begin. Starting to wonder if they leave the gap open
here and start the pullback now because it is expected to be a
certainty that it fills now. And maybe it does, but maybe it needs
to pullback first before pushing again. Probabilities. Fool the
most is how the market playbook has been all year.
SPX conditions are certainly ripe for a reversion to mean type
pullback. The 9/13 ma were at 3,860 or so when I checked charts,
congruent with the 3,870 fib highlighted on Matt's one chart. Also
a gap below at 3,830 if things really get going and which won't
survive long term. Earnings aren't great and job losses are just
beginning. I'm weighted more short than long right now in my
trading mix. 55/45 and cash otherwise.
Long term in our other accounts I'd love the rally to continue
as I would sell all the 3,000s inventory at 4,220 or better. There
can be miracles when you believe the song says lol. Any forward
progress is a bonus here over the next year to me.
If I'm China, I'd be trying something with Biden in office and
the U.S. fighting inflation and a shaky economy. Maybe Taiwan
situation heats up. In October a guess or sooner. Biden meeting
with Xi in 10 days or so.
Was lower risk given the conference call isn't until 530. Thanks
for calling out the resistance area! Guidance gonna be interesting.
He already sandbagged expectations a bit saying he was very
concerned about things and plants were money burners. Margins down
to 26.2 after inflation. Still pretty good given this economy. He
definitely has a fan club.
Still don't see how it's good going forward. Report was that he
may not even be on the call. Does he normally not show?
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Now a 12 rsi and
NEM high 86.37 - Gann theory says 50% mark (43.19) ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 25th of Jul 2022 at 02:52 pm
Now a 12 rsi and down 14% just today. Still no interest for me.
The business leaders will let
Telcos ... Yesterday T (AT&T) got hammered ... Today ... ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Jul 2022 at 03:55 pm
The business leaders will let us know through their actions when things are getting better long term by buying company stock with their own money. Jamie Dimon is my signal. I am watching for things like that, m&a, bankruptcies, higher employment, etc. The money gets made putting everyone back to work. Trading environment until then for me.
If they happen to run this up into the 4,200s or better, I'll be glad to consider selling them all my 3,000s inventory in long term accounts.
Like Shakira says, the puts
XBI Seeing about 2 million dollars today trading in $80 ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Jul 2022 at 02:06 pm
Like Shakira says, the puts don't lie. I'm on today. 11% on my labd size, now peel some off and ride the rest. Scooped some labu in case they want to rally it some. Risk/reward. Same instruments everyday, just change allocation %
Either a tuck in or
The selling in SNAP is intense ... it's not even ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Jul 2022 at 11:58 am
Either a tuck in or bankrupt if markets go to new lows. Who are they really advertising to? Hilarious
Arkk bleeding over 5%, xbi
XBI ARKK and IWM say the markets want lower. Three ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Jul 2022 at 11:33 am
Arkk bleeding over 5%, xbi 2.59%, iwm over 1%, no Bueno for marketo
XBI ARKK and IWM say
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Jul 2022 at 11:01 am
XBI ARKK and IWM say the markets want lower. Three amigos lead in both directions. They bottom first and they top first.
Closed my US dollar puts
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Jul 2022 at 10:53 am
Closed my US dollar puts into that woosh. Heck of a trade. Took stones, though risk reward was with me.
WMT, I've been riding since
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Jul 2022 at 09:50 am
WMT, I've been riding since $120, will be selling half here at a 69 RSI near $133 and tightly trailing the rest. Good call by my wife.
Twitter posts surprise $270 million
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Jul 2022 at 08:44 am
Twitter posts surprise $270 million loss in First Earnings report Since Elon Musk terminated $44 billion takeover deal.
Stock would be hammered if the lawsuit wasn't pending imo.
SPX Fantastic S&P500 bull market
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Jul 2022 at 08:14 am
SPX Fantastic S&P500 bull market analog chart. All 3 bull markets since 1998 are overlapped here. The yellow line is the tech boom bust of 1998-2001. The blue line is the housing boom bust of 2005-2008. The white line is our current boom bust from 2019-2022. If the bottom is not in yet then a major low in Oct would be a great opportunity to buy.
Second attachment shows a committed trader set up at Whole Foods
SPX QQQ To keep some
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Jul 2022 at 07:57 am
SPX QQQ To keep some context on what's going on earnings wise, here are some reactions after earnings as of last evening:
CRSR down 11% SAM down 9% ISRG down 12% TTD down 6% SIVB down 8% STX down 9% SNAP down 26%
Caution is warranted given how overbought things are here and the economic backdrop. Also, the more we rally into the FOMC, the more pressure the Fed will have to be more aggressive. Normally the market would drop into the FOMC to pressure the Fed to be more dovish. I think there "could" be some more gas in the tank once a pullback comes and this settles a bit. I'd like to see how the market reacts after a 100 point SPX runoff and getting below 3,900. That 3,860 or even 3,830 gap look reasonable.
ISRG hit after their report
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 21st of Jul 2022 at 04:43 pm
ISRG hit after their report too, down 13% Intuitive Surgical
XBI Seeing about 2 million
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 21st of Jul 2022 at 04:38 pm
XBI Seeing about 2 million dollars today trading in $80 strike puts for August 19th near the ask. I remember that $78 area being a prior major support, so $80 target seems reasonable if a pullback materializes. A 62 RSI here now and came off a high yesterday of 86. Looks to need a rest. For this reason my allocation % is leaning to LABD over LABU on a relative basis. I like LABU for another push up, though I think it needs rest here for a bit as well as the market.
Agree with anywhere here to the gap 4,017 area is where the pullback will begin. Starting to wonder if they leave the gap open here and start the pullback now because it is expected to be a certainty that it fills now. And maybe it does, but maybe it needs to pullback first before pushing again. Probabilities. Fool the most is how the market playbook has been all year.
I'd like to thank traders
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 21st of Jul 2022 at 04:01 pm
I'd like to thank traders and the plunge protection team for the gains to our long term accounts today. Thank you for your service haha
Boring day trading, just back and forth on LABU/LABD but limited range. No complaints. Off for a 3 day weekend to Alabama tomorrow.
Looking forward to Steve's newsletter.
Getting ready to crap imo Let's
Volitile long candles today on SPX
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 21st of Jul 2022 at 10:26 am
Getting ready to crap imo
Let's see how optimistic things are if we hit 3830 gap
SPX conditions are certainly ripe
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 20th of Jul 2022 at 10:15 pm
SPX conditions are certainly ripe for a reversion to mean type pullback. The 9/13 ma were at 3,860 or so when I checked charts, congruent with the 3,870 fib highlighted on Matt's one chart. Also a gap below at 3,830 if things really get going and which won't survive long term. Earnings aren't great and job losses are just beginning. I'm weighted more short than long right now in my trading mix. 55/45 and cash otherwise.
Long term in our other accounts I'd love the rally to continue as I would sell all the 3,000s inventory at 4,220 or better. There can be miracles when you believe the song says lol. Any forward progress is a bonus here over the next year to me.
If I'm China, I'd be trying something with Biden in office and the U.S. fighting inflation and a shaky economy. Maybe Taiwan situation heats up. In October a guess or sooner. Biden meeting with Xi in 10 days or so.
Was lower risk given the
TSLA beats (resistance around 780)
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 20th of Jul 2022 at 04:42 pm
Was lower risk given the conference call isn't until 530. Thanks for calling out the resistance area! Guidance gonna be interesting. He already sandbagged expectations a bit saying he was very concerned about things and plants were money burners. Margins down to 26.2 after inflation. Still pretty good given this economy. He definitely has a fan club.
Still don't see how it's good going forward. Report was that he may not even be on the call. Does he normally not show?
Crypto near flat, a precursor
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 20th of Jul 2022 at 03:52 pm
Crypto near flat, a precursor to next market down day after Tesla earnings on the back of those well timed put buys?
Thank you!
Here's an interesting one to me. $NAAD tagging its upper ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 20th of Jul 2022 at 03:35 pm
Thank you!
Ugly candle for markets today
All It took was a little news. "The market was ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 20th of Jul 2022 at 01:19 pm
Ugly candle for markets today unless they somehow reverse it.