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50ma hold confirmation

Posted by frtaylor on 10th of Feb 2015 at 03:29 pm

With today as confirmation of yesterday's hold of the SPX 50ma (assuming the next 30 minutes holds), it appears the breakout on the daily that we've been waiting for is to the up side. Matt or Steve, do you see it this way?

And now...looking strong, or at least holding up well. Closed my short for a small loss.

2/3 position covered at 35.10. Holding 1/3 for 50% retrace and gap fill at 33.25, stop at 36.52.

you're welcome! 38.2% retrace lines up at around the bottom of the target zone and the Feb 4 lows.  Cool

WLL - 3-push pattern, 60 min chart

Posted by frtaylor on 9th of Feb 2015 at 02:41 pm

Here's a nice 3-push pattern on WLL, with price making higher highs and RSI making lower highs.

thanks, this is exactly the

longer term trade on oil

Posted by frtaylor on 9th of Feb 2015 at 09:58 am

thanks, this is exactly the kind of option analysis I need to learn. 

I'm no Steve (to borrow a famous quote), but a couple observations: 1. it's already basically achieved the 9ema target, which is resistance. 2. no positive divergence on the RSI daily chart. On the positive side, the low of 22.60 on 10/13/14 is so far holding. But with the 20, 200, and 50ma's all overhead, I'd be long only for a quick trade.

Perhaps pay for part of

longer term trade on oil

Posted by frtaylor on 8th of Feb 2015 at 10:22 pm

Perhaps pay for part of a longer term bull call debit spread with a shorter term bull put credit spread.

longer term trade on oil

Posted by frtaylor on 8th of Feb 2015 at 10:01 pm

Just listened to your commodity newsletter, Matt. Seems like oil is set up for a move a few weeks or months out. Would love to get some detailed input on how to put an effective bull call spread on USO (or OIL).

JUNO

Posted by frtaylor on 5th of Feb 2015 at 05:17 pm

Bull wedge forming on JUNO, 60 minute chart. No positive divergence on the RSI yet, though.

red to green (e.g. EMES)

Posted by frtaylor on 4th of Feb 2015 at 09:17 am

Steve, when you say watch for "a red to green move," you mean the daily candle (or whatever time frame) starts the day below previous day's high, then reverses and exceeds that high, is that right?

Thanks. I like how CNI

Railroads

Posted by frtaylor on 3rd of Feb 2015 at 10:01 pm

Thanks. I like how CNI has repeatedly held the 200ma in the last few weeks and now appears to be breaking away from it.

Railroads

Posted by frtaylor on 3rd of Feb 2015 at 08:38 pm

Matt and Steve, I wonder if you'd be interested in covering the railroads. With oil perking up, they are too. The difference: they have been much stronger than energy stocks (naturally). CSX, UNP, CNI look good.

Hope you feel better soon!

Energy Stock follow through

Posted by frtaylor on 3rd of Feb 2015 at 01:16 pm

Hope you feel better soon! Never had a migraine; they sound just terrible.

Wonder why Worden shows the

XLF Daily

Posted by frtaylor on 2nd of Feb 2015 at 11:26 am

Wonder why Worden shows the 200ma as 23.16. If it's correct, XLF is still below 200.

thanks, a_i! I think you meant straddle for one of those two trades, yes?

I have some experience (not a lot) w/ options, long and short options, spreads and a few IC's, calendars and butterflies. Which trade were you thinking of for a straddle - SPX? I have a strangle on for the SPX - out of the money long calls and puts for Feb 27. Straddle as I understand it is harder because you buy ATM, so it's really got to move to cover the cost.

 

closed SPY short, reversed and went long. Out of NFLX breakeven; GDXJ was a good trade - +1.8%

SPY, NFLX short starting to

Posted by frtaylor on 30th of Jan 2015 at 10:29 am

SPY, NFLX short starting to work. GDX long inv h/s on 5 min also working.

Took a small SPY short w/ stop above this morning's high.

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