Thanks! 

Cool, I did catch that in the Monday newsletter. What do you think you'd trade (UVXY, SPX)? I guess you'd have to game that out in the research. Where can you get the Demark signals? I might look into it. Thanks.

With the market down pre-decision, I just bought a single fairly far OTM SPY call to hedge the SPY system trades. Good to be hedged against an upside surprise, even if overall I'll still be down if that happens. Trying my best to hang onto the SPY system until EOD. 

$VIX morning star pattern developing (confirm EOD).

$VIX

Coffee seasonality chart.

http://www.equityclock.com/charts/coffee-futures-kc-seasonal-chart/

Thanks for keeping tabs on that! The VIX Bollinger Band trades are almost always winners. Add that to the SPY PRO system being short from different individual systems, and it sure looks we're in for at least a couple days of down action.

Trader's Almanac, 1st trading day of November (taken from their FB page):

November’s First Trading Day: DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Up 8 of Last 10

Based upon data in the 2023 Stock Trader’s Almanac on page 90, the first trading day of November is the fourth best of all monthly first trading days since September 1997 based upon total DJIA point gained. 

Thanks, totally understand. It's been a helluva week.

No trades on, other than some SDS from the remaining open short SPY system trade . Just watching. ☕

Matt/Steve, on the SPX corrective count, are we still in A of ABC, or now in C, do you think? If C, that was a pretty shallow B. The pullback that started on 10/18 was bigger.

On ES price has just passed the 61.8.

sent you a pm.

You can trade it pre-market, before 8:30 am.

Unfortunately my retirement account isn't big enough yet for much in the way of credit spreads - uses too much margin, etc. I did buy an otm call w/ expiration tomorrow, to protect against a big move up.

For me, this is the hard part of adhering to the system trades. It's profitable, but not hugely so; the market looks like it wants another leg higher (c of abc); and two huge companies report tonight.  Plus the down action has been very choppy, so it looks like it's corrective and can turn up at any time. 

It's very difficult to beat the system trades in totoby exiting early, even just partially. But every bone in my body says sell, or at least put a breakeven stop in.

Defended, so far.

I thought you meant "rip" as in it's ripping. So I went to the after-hours chart to see. RIP indeed.

From The Stock Trader's Almanac FB page:

November is Top NASDAQ Month in Midterm Years

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-two DJIA, S&P 500 (since 1950), and NASDAQ (since 1971) month. November is best for Russell 1000 (since 1979) and Russell 2000 (since 1979). Average performance in all year ranges from 1.7% from DJIA and S&P 500 to a solid 2.3% by Russell 2000.

In midterm years, November’s market prowess is relatively unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 14 of the last 18 midterm years since 1950 with an average gain of 2.5%. S&P 500 has also been up in 14 of the past 18 midterm years, gaining on average 2.6%. Small caps perform well with Russell 2000 climbing in 7 of the past 10 midterm years, averaging 3.3%. The only real blemish in the November midterm-year record is 1974 (DJIA –7.0%, the final DJIA bear market bottom was in December).

If you listen to the podcast, he (Michael actually, not Josh) is not stating or implying that we've hit bottom. He  says, "the stock market is going to bottom before we see the economic data bottom." They are NOT saying Oct 13 was the bottom, just that people should not think that when things look the worst, the market is going to then go down again. 

Was just listening to Josh Brown on YT talking about when S&P bottoms vs. economic indicators.  Apparently it's widely known (not to me, I'm not in stock or finance biz) that GDP, earnings and payroll all bottom after stocks (see images), whereas the ISM survey (manufacturing snapshot) bottoms pretty close to when the market bottoms.  I guess that syncs up with the adage that the market is forward looking, etc.  Anyway, it's good for me to get the view from 30,000 feet now and then.  I'd welcome any comments; I'm always trying to learn.