Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Oct 2022 at 10:22 pm
Was just listening to Josh Brown on YT talking about when
S&P bottoms vs. economic indicators. Apparently it's
widely known (not to me, I'm not in stock or finance biz) that GDP,
earnings and payroll all bottom after stocks (see images), whereas
the ISM survey (manufacturing snapshot) bottoms pretty close to
when the market bottoms. I guess that syncs up with the adage
that the market is forward looking, etc. Anyway, it's good
for me to get the view from 30,000 feet now and then. I'd
welcome any comments; I'm always trying to learn.
For the record, this guy’s post isn’t wrong. The context just
implies a wrong understanding of where we are in the cycle. Stocks
do bottom roughly 3-4 months before a recession ENDS. Not 3-4
months before a recession
Posted by frtaylor on 26th of Oct 2022 at 09:34 am
If you listen to the podcast, he (Michael actually, not Josh) is
not stating or implying that we've hit bottom. He says, "the
stock market is going to bottom before we see the economic data
bottom." They are NOT saying Oct 13 was the bottom, just that
people should not think that when things look the worst, the market
is going to then go down again.
Was just listening to Josh
Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Oct 2022 at 10:22 pm
Was just listening to Josh Brown on YT talking about when S&P bottoms vs. economic indicators. Apparently it's widely known (not to me, I'm not in stock or finance biz) that GDP, earnings and payroll all bottom after stocks (see images), whereas the ISM survey (manufacturing snapshot) bottoms pretty close to when the market bottoms. I guess that syncs up with the adage that the market is forward looking, etc. Anyway, it's good for me to get the view from 30,000 feet now and then. I'd welcome any comments; I'm always trying to learn.
For the record, this guy’s
Posted by steve on 26th of Oct 2022 at 09:24 am
For the record, this guy’s post isn’t wrong. The context just implies a wrong understanding of where we are in the cycle. Stocks do bottom roughly 3-4 months before a recession ENDS. Not 3-4 months before a recession
If you listen to the
Posted by frtaylor on 26th of Oct 2022 at 09:34 am
If you listen to the podcast, he (Michael actually, not Josh) is not stating or implying that we've hit bottom. He says, "the stock market is going to bottom before we see the economic data bottom." They are NOT saying Oct 13 was the bottom, just that people should not think that when things look the worst, the market is going to then go down again.
This is pretty interesting. New
Posted by donkeyface on 26th of Oct 2022 at 12:09 am
This is pretty interesting. New to me as well.