Should bounce here after ugly downgrade and distribution.  Wedge on the 1 min, divergent lows.  AA within a dime of 261 fib tgt and symm lines yesterday.  Now bearish on this Dow issue.

TAHO charts pretty well , too , should bounce off old highs below.  MVG, some support at the midpoint of yesterday, probably grind a bit higher before larger support.  Fortunately, filled AUMN 1.42 limit orders at fib level, yesterday, about the only way to deal with some of these.  NGD hit old fib line, filled gap, looks very good long any lower

Assuming 100,000 start,  $179,000 (current as of close) , about a 1/3 costless collar on the entire amount, using GDXJ collar,  is about 15 contracts (1 contract $4200 equivalent, about $63,000 hedged).   Will use the Aug 45 / 39 at  0.05 credit.  

FNV tgt $58.88 but probably retest the b/out , at least, b4 that.   FNV never really broke down in the whole spring thing.  OGC.TO $3.71 2012 highs in play.  Semafo, new highs, $5.24 tgt.  ASM, back through a fib line, perhaps , retest of spring highs.

The GDXJ_CMNY_A portfolio is currently up 79% YTD on the original eight picks.  We are once again dusting the best non-leveraged ETFS across the globe,  JO and SCIF (India small-cap) making beans in the low 50%s . Adjustments done on 5/2/14 (worst date possible last few weeks) would affect that number a little bit.  Recent add Torex TXG.to is up 35% from date of inclusion, with DGC.to Detour close behind.  

MVG, RGLD, TAHO GOLD, RGLD all looking very good in the B portfolio.  SSRI, KOR.to on watch, AG was booted already.

Several of these were making new highs all along in the recent scamdown and most were highly positively divergent with the sector.  This is why I dislike index analysis, very misleading, with all the short / long arbitrage going on.

Huge bars today passed through significant resistance ( now support) today.   Upside targets look iffy, but the $58.88 on FNV is worth watching.  Looking to used sector collars, with more bearish hedges 5-7% farther up.

aapl only holding up the world

Last post had a hiccup

1) It's nice to have something a little more concrete in terms of trade setups.  I assume this might be a precursor to something you'd put through dittotrade at some point.

2) That being said,  These types of trades look like textbook bull call spreads, buying a 90 delta in the money 2-3 months out, and selling a 10-15 delta out of the money in the short month to offset the time decay of your ITM call, then repeating the sale of an OTM call.  It gives an element of the covered call.

This is much preferable for risk management instead of the huge stop losses you're looking at in these trades.  The SBUX trade, for instance, looks like a bit of a head scratcher, entry at 73 plus, exit at 60 or 86, which is an initial 1:1 r/r ...  Ties up 90% less capital, too, if all one is going to do is swing trade these for a few weeks.  Even if one wants to book profits in the stock for the long-term, that can be done, albeit at the exit price, not the entry price.

For instance,  a 2x2 diagonal for SBUX, using the long AUG 67.5 ($8.30) and short Jul 80 (25c credit) would only cost you about $8.05 (vs 13 pt max loss in your example).   The great advantage is the built-in stop loss of only the value of the long call, but one tends to do even better than that recapturing time value if the underlying slide to the ATM strike well before the expiry date.

Most trades fail because of lack of execution and placement of sell orders.  Options intrinsically take care of much of that.   I suppose Dittotrade would, too, but the options route would be more risk averse and is the direction a lot of people are heading.

Short a 145 spread there

SBUX hits tgt here after chnl cross from the long at 70 ish .   With the AAPL split running its course, memorial day bear trap gap underneath,  another small ref point that we're "a beet extended" .  ALXN, typical of biotechs, not a great consolidation , more of a fan morphing into a bear wedge into major fib line with some xs above it.   Most all biotechs looks this way.  Good place for a moderately bearish spread.   240/245 june 14 2.25

Roxgold, new highs under these trying conditions.... amazing, amazing ... added to the model port on 5/2 and hasn't disappointed.  Well-funded developer, obviously with buyers.  LSG hammered nicely, also green by EOD.   Large volume now on GDXJ with wide range bars, indexed modestly hammered, though a bit hard to see how with all the ugly candles out there on the bigger names.

  GDXJ Jun 13 put spreads here are 72c  for th 32.5 / 30 .  Way outside the bands.  Gap and duplicate channel support or GDX down at the 21.26 are, only about 3% away.  $6.90 tgt on AUY almost reached, and it actually is in the higher downtrending channel now.   LSG well into the buy zone, strong buy into the 60c area.   Roxgold, GDXJ_CMNY_Jr  leader actually broke out today.  Others from leader lists still above April low are DGC.to, OGC.t FNV TXG.to, MVG, TAHO, and SBGL Generally things look a little lower, but well-funded developers acting well and good producers, not too bad.  Next fib cycle runs to mid July .  

RSI 2 Daily above 90 on spy and 15'   / es outside the bands there a while ago.  

which might explain lack of downside continuation the past month.  Could broaden up to the  50 or 61 retracement, looks overpriced though with some air down there.  SNA another snore short at multiple fib lines, earnings gaps below, no mojo. ... and as we jot LSG, core member of the GDXJ_CMNY_JR milli vanilli  buy alert from 67 to 60 in play.

Lots of limpy looking SPY stocks which aren't anywhere near last weeks highs as we bounce this week.   R  , LMT, might get a little pop into div dist.  ... CMI out of gas

50 didn't hold on the bump to 77 in March.   I've been having fun with duplicate symmetrical channels lately, so the 50 ma would be down the list on trade structure in this fantasy world.   The upper (third) channel looks like support here with a run to the flattening 200 ma.   Still looks like a distributive bear wedgie  move over the past 6 weeks.  Looks like the milli vanilli sell on NFLX at the 61 was popular (I texted Carl Icahn I was getting short there)

SBUX fan morphed to bull wedge , look like 73 for starters.  70.75 support. NFLX overdone into 61 retrace of selloff,  also iffy 161 fib line of last year's rally.  424 or 372 range short term

SPY RSI 2 dipping below 10 here and there, but no /es oversold - reversion conditions to give a nice intraday reversal system.  I think of this as the SPY_CHTR_GAG signal (cheats in intraday on the MOC order of the SPY RSI 2 system.  And it raises the 90 % + success rate of the SPY to "99.44 %"  since either the intraday or end of day signal will work.  Therefore, the two signals together are good as gold.

way outside the bands on the 15 ... lnkd  green ... update 15' high buy signal there if that's the way u roll

Overnight was at 168 for vips ... pretty nasty out there though .... PLUG staying green