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VIX gaps to lower band, cycle lows perhaps this week

Posted by cmunny on 12th of May 2014 at 12:32 pm

Not a care in the world ...

GDX CMNY JR AND SR UPDATES

Posted by cmunny on 3rd of May 2014 at 11:51 pm

Several new inclusions in each "proprietary" portfolio.   Cayden, Roxgold, Pinetree, Torex, and Detour in the "A" / JR  port , and TAHO and SBGL in the "B" / SR port.  AG gets the boot as the only underperformer relative to the index.  MUX and KOR are on watch.   The rest are doing well.   Additions were made based on relative strength, recent cash raises, adding leverage, and company outlook.  

The A / GDXJ_CMNY_JR (as it's sometimes called)  returned 44% YTD.  Not bad as gold went to 900, and good for 3rd place in the ETF world behind JO and a short metals fund.

A suggested strategy is to trade / accumulate in these leaders, and hedge intermediate term with long puts / put spreads , short call , call spreads, and , for short periods of time, DUST.   As this year has shown, as per usual, duds remain duds for extended lengths of time and what looks like an opportunity can be dudly.

AKG had two nice support bounces on the duplicate red channel on the pullback.  Duplicate channels at the same angle (green channels) would suggest upside tgts from 2.33 (slow grind) to 2.51 (sharper move into late June).  10 % upside short term in the PM space. Shapes up pretty bullishly in my view.

This has all the makings of a maturing death cross.   Lots of SPY stocks are popping up through similar patterns and may be looking falsely strong.  Looks like the gap just above is a nice spot to short the IWM, symm and fib tgt to 103 and change.

AA , I have it upper band to 14.93 fib

AA

Posted by cmunny on 2nd of May 2014 at 12:44 pm

Held some of this for quite a while and it's got through that 100 fib line at 12.54 without to much trouble.  Looking now at the 14.91 are.  3rd symm line would be a rough confirmation of that.

Fib time series was right on the money for the selloff in March.  It appears we've morphed from bear wedges, during the past few week's bounces, into bull wedges, though there are a variety of patterns out there a vastly divergent relative strengths.  NG fairly nice wedge, still looks like a range of $3.40 to $3.91, upside bias. ANV engulfing bar with open gap at $3.70 after slide along fan line into no ernins' report.  Now much higher prices ahead.

CELG very firm right at s / r line

Posted by cmunny on 1st of May 2014 at 10:41 am

 Maturing fan base ready to pound through the 148 hsr line . Got a $210 price tgt, much higher prices ahead.   not my favorite pattern as earnings or Monday was much better but this looks very solid and good lower if it comes down along the 38 fan ... 149 plus GDX falling out of wedge retest, but to me that's bullish.   Looks like a low on the fib time series coming in here tomorrow on 5/2, good reversal point ... now looking like  gaps left on some of these leaders are not going to fill and we will reattack highs on GDXJ leaders gold itself fib series looks like it hits in a few more days.  CMNY_GDXJ issues OGC.to ,  LSG, very bullish,  SMF.to looks fine, FSM as well.  GG AUY others fighting back strong , looks good long PM

XLE gravestone dojoe, Gold leaders 2nd try at resistance

Posted by cmunny on 29th of Apr 2014 at 03:43 pm

XLE some interesting long term fib lines up here ... stuff like CVX , low p/e, haven't done anything for years.  Gold metal very bullish undercut of flags lows, stocks up against R 2nd time , holes underneath, looking for hot oil bath on further pops.

DDD Symm tgt long at about 44.9

DDD long off 2nd symmetry low

Posted by cmunny on 29th of Apr 2014 at 02:40 pm

Seems like it worked pretty well for tuff intraday conditions.  Didn't see any way else to pick a bottom there.

DDD long off 2nd symmetry low

Posted by cmunny on 29th of Apr 2014 at 01:28 pm

Trying this for a throw, no real support or downside momentum, so I used a symm projection and trendline break on 1 min.  ... we mite be a day early and $2.50 short here ... $40.50 to $41.50 would be much more comfy ... sorta' playing "quarters" out of boredom for now. 

you win either way,  this intraday reversal entry works and the RSI 2 end of day trade is no longer taken, or this entry fails and you likely buy Market On Close a bit lower for the high probability system trade.   /es was outside the BB on intraday basis and market was at or near S2 and a number of oversold stocks (AMZN etc. ) were not making new lows.  Closed at 186.8, entry was 185.27.  (0.8%)

SPY RSI 2 , 9.2

Posted by cmunny on 28th of Apr 2014 at 02:04 pm

Lot of the high price off 20% the past 3 days.  near support levels ... 9.4 .. dropping,will be a buy for a bounce throw or system buy this afternoon

SNA short

S and P shorts FFIV ADI SNA etc

Posted by cmunny on 28th of Apr 2014 at 11:56 am

Earnings gaps and whipsaws have made these SPY issues lpretty good shorts up here.  SNA right at 5 yr and 2 yr fib extensions over two ernins gaps.  TGts 105 then 98.  Small gap above even better if it gets back there.   FFIV also printed a magical move up toward highs and wedge resistance kicked back in.  A little overdone for the moment, perhaps a miraculous skate save to the 9dma, but 94.5 looks likely.  SRCL likewise ,  a bear whip on ernins up to 200dma, ... if $113 breaks, symmetry to 105, fib to 97.

GOOG hits fan tgt. LNKD fan support , outside BB

Posted by cmunny on 28th of Apr 2014 at 11:09 am

Oversold fan tgt / broadening lows hit at 508.  AMZN hit 293 tgt and then some, also into broadening low trendline "support."  Looked like too much too soon.  LNKD gap at 141, but at fan line here , outside BB. AAPL stock split on June 9, div up, stock buyback, some smart phones share up overseas, people foolishly still buying iPhone vs. BPT subscription, mkts going higher.

Some bullish plays BIDU , LMT , AMZN tgt 293

Posted by cmunny on 25th of Apr 2014 at 01:11 pm
Title: Some more bullish issues LMT BIDU, AMZN 293 tgt reit.

My leg is starting to tingle.  How many more whipsaws can they pull ... most silver stocks ignoring these shenanigans

Some got farther than others, but this should be interesting to see if we can get an inv. h/s  going from the past few weeks to give another jab at the resistance hit yesterday.  We'll see if next bounce rolls over, then ths weeks lows are vulnerable.  TAHO tried valiantly, 2nd topping tail at the 61 fan, horizontal resistance.  GOLD little gap lower after bumping up against highs.  /gc now on top of the falling channel that fell into the $1270 area, dips should be bot there, could help stocks.  ANV pressing the fan, explosive gains coming.  AAU out of the fan, very good situation.  SA, yawn, just putting in a dojoe , banksters still holding 10,000 lot of Aug $7 calls there.  Much higher prices ahead.

Rest of the GDX floating up to close the gap.   Fan patterns seem to be in play , with broadening above and below.   SBGL broadening to new highs - amazing ... amazing.  All these stocks are coming into 3 types of resistance about 1 pct higher if they didn't get there already.  Bases underneath most look pretty tight.  Should be a good battle line , decided somewhere at 2 a.m. with no volume. Note how the  fib time series caught the top exactly on 3-14 - next big switcheroo will be on 5/2

Golds hitting bounce tgts , ANV filling gap at 3.99

Posted by cmunny on 23rd of Apr 2014 at 11:42 am

golds extended  with no volume ... ANV fills gap , leaves one behind ... fan resistance, looking for a little cooloff  around here, look better on daily than intraday.  AAU looks very nice, but hitting fan resistance.   A little different model than some companies,  nice base setting up, buy the dip.  TAHO going to close a little gap from last week and test the underside of this wedge breakdown.

SAND, SA look about the best today ... GG up on failed takeover discount removal .. NGD ANV not making significant new lows / relative strength intraday.  Extension tgts on weak stocks like AUY and AG still 10 pct lower Frown

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