Several new inclusions in each "proprietary"
portfolio. Cayden, Roxgold, Pinetree, Torex, and Detour
in the "A" / JR port , and TAHO and SBGL in the "B" / SR
port. AG gets the boot as the only underperformer relative to
the index. MUX and KOR are on watch. The rest are
doing well. Additions were made based on relative
strength, recent cash raises, adding leverage, and company
outlook.
The A / GDXJ_CMNY_JR (as it's sometimes called) returned
44% YTD. Not bad as gold went to 900, and good for 3rd place
in the ETF world behind JO and a short metals fund.
A suggested strategy is to trade / accumulate in these leaders,
and hedge intermediate term with long puts / put spreads , short
call , call spreads, and , for short periods of time,
DUST. As this year has shown, as per usual, duds remain
duds for extended lengths of time and what looks like an
opportunity can be dudly.
AKG had two nice support bounces on the duplicate red channel on
the pullback. Duplicate channels at the same angle (green
channels) would suggest upside tgts from 2.33 (slow grind) to 2.51
(sharper move into late June). 10 % upside short term in the
PM space. Shapes up pretty bullishly in my view.
This has all the makings of a maturing death cross.
Lots of SPY stocks are popping up through similar patterns and may
be looking falsely strong. Looks like the gap just above is a
nice spot to short the IWM, symm and fib tgt to 103 and change.
Held some of this for quite a while and it's got through that
100 fib line at 12.54 without to much trouble. Looking
now at the 14.91 are. 3rd symm line would be a rough
confirmation of that.
Fib time series was right on the money for the selloff in
March. It appears we've morphed from bear wedges, during the
past few week's bounces, into bull wedges, though there are a
variety of patterns out there a vastly divergent relative
strengths. NG fairly nice wedge, still looks like a range of
$3.40 to $3.91, upside bias. ANV engulfing bar with open gap at
$3.70 after slide along fan line into no ernins' report. Now
much higher prices ahead.
Maturing fan base ready to pound through the 148 hsr line
. Got a $210 price tgt, much higher prices ahead. not
my favorite pattern as earnings or Monday was much better but this
looks very solid and good lower if it comes down along the 38
fan ... 149 plus GDX falling out of wedge retest, but to me that's
bullish. Looks like a low on the fib time series coming
in here tomorrow on 5/2, good reversal point ... now looking
like gaps left on some of these leaders are not going to fill
and we will reattack highs on GDXJ leaders gold itself fib series
looks like it hits in a few more days. CMNY_GDXJ issues
OGC.to , LSG, very bullish, SMF.to looks fine, FSM as
well. GG AUY others fighting back strong , looks good
long PM
XLE some interesting long term fib lines up here ... stuff like
CVX , low p/e, haven't done anything for years. Gold metal
very bullish undercut of flags lows, stocks up against R 2nd time ,
holes underneath, looking for hot oil bath on further pops.
Trying this for a throw, no real support or downside momentum,
so I used a symm projection and trendline break on 1 min. ...
we mite be a day early and $2.50 short here ... $40.50 to $41.50
would be much more comfy ... sorta' playing "quarters" out of
boredom for now.
you win either way, this intraday reversal entry
works and the RSI 2 end of day trade is no longer taken, or this
entry fails and you likely buy Market On Close a bit lower for
the high probability system trade. /es was outside the
BB on intraday basis and market was at or near S2 and a number of
oversold stocks (AMZN etc. ) were not making new lows. Closed
at 186.8, entry was 185.27. (0.8%)
Earnings gaps and whipsaws have made these SPY issues lpretty
good shorts up here. SNA right at 5 yr and 2 yr fib
extensions over two ernins gaps. TGts 105 then 98.
Small gap above even better if it gets back there. FFIV
also printed a magical move up toward highs and wedge resistance
kicked back in. A little overdone for the moment, perhaps a
miraculous skate save to the 9dma, but 94.5 looks likely.
SRCL likewise , a bear whip on ernins up to 200dma,
... if $113 breaks, symmetry to 105, fib to 97.
Oversold fan tgt / broadening lows hit at 508. AMZN hit
293 tgt and then some, also into broadening low trendline
"support." Looked like too much too soon. LNKD gap at
141, but at fan line here , outside BB. AAPL stock split on June 9,
div up, stock buyback, some smart phones share up overseas, people
foolishly still buying iPhone vs. BPT subscription, mkts going
higher.
BIDU bullish fan and flagging intraday hit 172 last night, SBUX
complex bear wedge morphing into bullish fan from highs. $92
put on it today and looks like a buy from here to 67 and higher
above the 61 fan line it's been tapping. GOLD , GDX leader,
under resistance, would have to recapture 80 to be bullish, but a
breakdown here would probably be more short-term bullish. AMZN
broadening wedge line and 161 fib at 293 - today's intraday action
does not look bottomish. GOOG looks like 505. Biotechs
green ... AAPL will save mkt till people realize they
are spending more each month on worthless iPhone plan instead of
invaluable BPT subscription. Closely watching ration trend
line of BPT memberships / IPhone sales for mkt
top.
Some got farther than others, but this should be interesting to
see if we can get an inv. h/s going from the past few weeks
to give another jab at the resistance hit yesterday. We'll
see if next bounce rolls over, then ths weeks lows are
vulnerable. TAHO tried valiantly, 2nd topping tail at the 61
fan, horizontal resistance. GOLD little gap lower after
bumping up against highs. /gc now on top of the falling
channel that fell into the $1270 area, dips should be bot there,
could help stocks. ANV pressing the fan, explosive gains
coming. AAU out of the fan, very good situation. SA,
yawn, just putting in a dojoe , banksters still holding 10,000
lot of Aug $7 calls there. Much higher prices ahead.
Rest of the GDX floating up to close the gap. Fan
patterns seem to be in play , with broadening above and
below. SBGL broadening to new highs - amazing ...
amazing. All these stocks are coming into 3 types of
resistance about 1 pct higher if they didn't get there
already. Bases underneath most look pretty tight.
Should be a good battle line , decided somewhere at 2 a.m. with no
volume. Note how the fib time series caught the top exactly
on 3-14 - next big switcheroo will be on 5/2
golds extended with no volume ... ANV fills gap , leaves
one behind ... fan resistance, looking for a little cooloff
around here, look better on daily than intraday. AAU looks
very nice, but hitting fan resistance. A little
different model than some companies, nice base setting up,
buy the dip. TAHO going to close a little gap from last week
and test the underside of this wedge breakdown.
SAND, SA look about the best today ... GG up on failed takeover
discount removal .. NGD ANV not making significant new lows /
relative strength intraday. Extension tgts on weak stocks
like AUY and AG still 10 pct lower
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VIX gaps to lower band, cycle lows perhaps this week
Posted by cmunny on 12th of May 2014 at 12:32 pm
Not a care in the world ...
GDX CMNY JR AND SR UPDATES
Posted by cmunny on 3rd of May 2014 at 11:51 pm
Several new inclusions in each "proprietary" portfolio. Cayden, Roxgold, Pinetree, Torex, and Detour in the "A" / JR port , and TAHO and SBGL in the "B" / SR port. AG gets the boot as the only underperformer relative to the index. MUX and KOR are on watch. The rest are doing well. Additions were made based on relative strength, recent cash raises, adding leverage, and company outlook.
The A / GDXJ_CMNY_JR (as it's sometimes called) returned 44% YTD. Not bad as gold went to 900, and good for 3rd place in the ETF world behind JO and a short metals fund.
A suggested strategy is to trade / accumulate in these leaders, and hedge intermediate term with long puts / put spreads , short call , call spreads, and , for short periods of time, DUST. As this year has shown, as per usual, duds remain duds for extended lengths of time and what looks like an opportunity can be dudly.
PM stock symm channel upside tgts
PM stocks morph to bull wedge; Fib time series flip today 5/2
Posted by cmunny on 2nd of May 2014 at 01:27 pm
AKG had two nice support bounces on the duplicate red channel on the pullback. Duplicate channels at the same angle (green channels) would suggest upside tgts from 2.33 (slow grind) to 2.51 (sharper move into late June). 10 % upside short term in the PM space. Shapes up pretty bullishly in my view.
IWM gap fill just above , downside symm to 103.4
IWM daily chart showing signs of weakness and has a potentially ominous pattern . It led for several years and is 7 % off of highs .
Posted by cmunny on 2nd of May 2014 at 01:06 pm
This has all the makings of a maturing death cross. Lots of SPY stocks are popping up through similar patterns and may be looking falsely strong. Looks like the gap just above is a nice spot to short the IWM, symm and fib tgt to 103 and change.
AA , I have it upper band to 14.93 fib
AA
Posted by cmunny on 2nd of May 2014 at 12:44 pm
Held some of this for quite a while and it's got through that 100 fib line at 12.54 without to much trouble. Looking now at the 14.91 are. 3rd symm line would be a rough confirmation of that.
PM stocks morph to bull wedge; Fib time series flip today 5/2
Posted by cmunny on 2nd of May 2014 at 12:33 pm
Fib time series was right on the money for the selloff in March. It appears we've morphed from bear wedges, during the past few week's bounces, into bull wedges, though there are a variety of patterns out there a vastly divergent relative strengths. NG fairly nice wedge, still looks like a range of $3.40 to $3.91, upside bias. ANV engulfing bar with open gap at $3.70 after slide along fan line into no ernins' report. Now much higher prices ahead.
CELG very firm right at s / r line
Posted by cmunny on 1st of May 2014 at 10:41 am
Maturing fan base ready to pound through the 148 hsr line . Got a $210 price tgt, much higher prices ahead. not my favorite pattern as earnings or Monday was much better but this looks very solid and good lower if it comes down along the 38 fan ... 149 plus GDX falling out of wedge retest, but to me that's bullish. Looks like a low on the fib time series coming in here tomorrow on 5/2, good reversal point ... now looking like gaps left on some of these leaders are not going to fill and we will reattack highs on GDXJ leaders gold itself fib series looks like it hits in a few more days. CMNY_GDXJ issues OGC.to , LSG, very bullish, SMF.to looks fine, FSM as well. GG AUY others fighting back strong , looks good long PM
XLE gravestone dojoe, Gold leaders 2nd try at resistance
Posted by cmunny on 29th of Apr 2014 at 03:43 pm
XLE some interesting long term fib lines up here ... stuff like CVX , low p/e, haven't done anything for years. Gold metal very bullish undercut of flags lows, stocks up against R 2nd time , holes underneath, looking for hot oil bath on further pops.
DDD Symm tgt long at about 44.9
DDD long off 2nd symmetry low
Posted by cmunny on 29th of Apr 2014 at 02:40 pm
Seems like it worked pretty well for tuff intraday conditions. Didn't see any way else to pick a bottom there.
DDD long off 2nd symmetry low
Posted by cmunny on 29th of Apr 2014 at 01:28 pm
Trying this for a throw, no real support or downside momentum, so I used a symm projection and trendline break on 1 min. ... we mite be a day early and $2.50 short here ... $40.50 to $41.50 would be much more comfy ... sorta' playing "quarters" out of boredom for now.
/es setup entry with the spy rsi 2 at 9.4 , good cheat entry for SPY trade
SPY RSI 2 , 9.2
Posted by cmunny on 28th of Apr 2014 at 02:19 pm
you win either way, this intraday reversal entry works and the RSI 2 end of day trade is no longer taken, or this entry fails and you likely buy Market On Close a bit lower for the high probability system trade. /es was outside the BB on intraday basis and market was at or near S2 and a number of oversold stocks (AMZN etc. ) were not making new lows. Closed at 186.8, entry was 185.27. (0.8%)
SPY RSI 2 , 9.2
Posted by cmunny on 28th of Apr 2014 at 02:04 pm
Lot of the high price off 20% the past 3 days. near support levels ... 9.4 .. dropping,will be a buy for a bounce throw or system buy this afternoon
SNA short
S and P shorts FFIV ADI SNA etc
Posted by cmunny on 28th of Apr 2014 at 11:56 am
Earnings gaps and whipsaws have made these SPY issues lpretty good shorts up here. SNA right at 5 yr and 2 yr fib extensions over two ernins gaps. TGts 105 then 98. Small gap above even better if it gets back there. FFIV also printed a magical move up toward highs and wedge resistance kicked back in. A little overdone for the moment, perhaps a miraculous skate save to the 9dma, but 94.5 looks likely. SRCL likewise , a bear whip on ernins up to 200dma, ... if $113 breaks, symmetry to 105, fib to 97.
GOOG hits fan tgt. LNKD fan support , outside BB
Posted by cmunny on 28th of Apr 2014 at 11:09 am
Oversold fan tgt / broadening lows hit at 508. AMZN hit 293 tgt and then some, also into broadening low trendline "support." Looked like too much too soon. LNKD gap at 141, but at fan line here , outside BB. AAPL stock split on June 9, div up, stock buyback, some smart phones share up overseas, people foolishly still buying iPhone vs. BPT subscription, mkts going higher.
Some bullish plays BIDU , LMT , AMZN tgt 293
Posted by cmunny on 25th of Apr 2014 at 01:11 pm
BIDU bullish fan and flagging intraday hit 172 last night, SBUX complex bear wedge morphing into bullish fan from highs. $92 put on it today and looks like a buy from here to 67 and higher above the 61 fan line it's been tapping. GOLD , GDX leader, under resistance, would have to recapture 80 to be bullish, but a breakdown here would probably be more short-term bullish. AMZN broadening wedge line and 161 fib at 293 - today's intraday action does not look bottomish. GOOG looks like 505. Biotechs green ... AAPL will save mkt till people realize they are spending more each month on worthless iPhone plan instead of invaluable BPT subscription. Closely watching ration trend line of BPT memberships / IPhone sales for mkt top.
Silver looks ultrabullish as well
Golds hitting bounce tgts , ANV filling gap at 3.99
Posted by cmunny on 24th of Apr 2014 at 12:40 pm
My leg is starting to tingle. How many more whipsaws can they pull ... most silver stocks ignoring these shenanigans
Goldgram update Taho finally reverses at 61 fan ; /gc on top of channelan
Golds hitting bounce tgts , ANV filling gap at 3.99
Posted by cmunny on 24th of Apr 2014 at 11:49 am
Some got farther than others, but this should be interesting to see if we can get an inv. h/s going from the past few weeks to give another jab at the resistance hit yesterday. We'll see if next bounce rolls over, then ths weeks lows are vulnerable. TAHO tried valiantly, 2nd topping tail at the 61 fan, horizontal resistance. GOLD little gap lower after bumping up against highs. /gc now on top of the falling channel that fell into the $1270 area, dips should be bot there, could help stocks. ANV pressing the fan, explosive gains coming. AAU out of the fan, very good situation. SA, yawn, just putting in a dojoe , banksters still holding 10,000 lot of Aug $7 calls there. Much higher prices ahead.
GDX vacuum gap fill up into fan , underside of wedge; 5/2 fib time series event
Golds hitting bounce tgts , ANV filling gap at 3.99
Posted by cmunny on 23rd of Apr 2014 at 02:19 pm
Rest of the GDX floating up to close the gap. Fan patterns seem to be in play , with broadening above and below. SBGL broadening to new highs - amazing ... amazing. All these stocks are coming into 3 types of resistance about 1 pct higher if they didn't get there already. Bases underneath most look pretty tight. Should be a good battle line , decided somewhere at 2 a.m. with no volume. Note how the fib time series caught the top exactly on 3-14 - next big switcheroo will be on 5/2
Golds hitting bounce tgts , ANV filling gap at 3.99
Posted by cmunny on 23rd of Apr 2014 at 11:42 am
golds extended with no volume ... ANV fills gap , leaves one behind ... fan resistance, looking for a little cooloff around here, look better on daily than intraday. AAU looks very nice, but hitting fan resistance. A little different model than some companies, nice base setting up, buy the dip. TAHO going to close a little gap from last week and test the underside of this wedge breakdown.
GG holds line on Oisko offer SA SAND green
RGLD about to fill gap at 63 flat, golds at pretty extended lows
Posted by cmunny on 21st of Apr 2014 at 12:46 pm
SAND, SA look about the best today ... GG up on failed takeover discount removal .. NGD ANV not making significant new lows / relative strength intraday. Extension tgts on weak stocks like AUY and AG still 10 pct lower