ERO - Canadian copper play - Druckenmiller highlighted copper
yesterday (along w Argentina and Japan) as areas in which he is
investing. Note ERO trades thin.
Hi Matt. Below the 50SMA, the symmetry target is $91.41. Do you
think that would be a reasonable bounce entry, if it gets there? if
not, what levels interest you? Thanks
Mike Santoli's insight aptly depicts the current market: 3%
inflation and 4.5-5% yields aren't crippling for stocks. Concerns
of a summer decline like last year aren't identical; the economy is
more resilient, and the Fed is considering cuts. Market in a
trading range for now.
I went long NVDA, too, after META, GOOGL and MSFT all raised
capex on AI. Closed above 20, 50, 200 daily SMAs, 5 & 9 daily
EMAs, and approaching 61.8% ($890.75) retrace of $756.06-$974
low/high. Notable that KISS didn't go long (unless not yet
updated).
Matt/Steve, your opinion on NVDA would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks much,
While the current AMD stock price may be attractive technically,
Intel's (INTC) recent earnings report signals potential headwinds.
INTC reported weakness in the PC segment and softer-than-expected
data center demand, excluding AI. Given the competitive landscape,
it may be prudent to temper expectations for AMD's Q1 2024 results
on April 30th. The PC market slowdown and muted non-AI data center
demand could impact AMD's Client and Data Center segments. If you
plan to take a position or add to an existing one, consider keeping
some powder dry. This way, if AMD's earnings disappoint and the
stock dips, you can add at more attractive levels. AMD valuation
29x next year EPS vs NVDA 28x at last night's after hours 8PM
closing price. Considering NVDA AI exposure, it is arguably better
positioned from end-market perspective for upcoming earnings than
AMD. One other factor to note: April is one of the worst months
seasonally for Semis, while May is a positive month (90%).
Hi Steve, Presumably the demand zones you depicted remain valid
and independent of, and into, tomorrow's PCE report. Or, perhaps
since they were already "hit" this morning, not as good for sloppy
seconds? Your confirmation would be appreciated.
Matt, For those of us who either missed the entries, or were
waiting for better prices, is this the correct way to look at the
average entry prices? the most favorable entry price (highlighted)
coincides w top of Steve's demand zone. Thanks for the help.
Matt, to be clear, it looks like the VIX top end standard 2.0
BB is 16.05, today. So if the VIX closes at 4:00pm under
16.05, one would buy the SPY after the close, anticipating an exit
on the subsequent close (Monday)? Thanks in advance for the
clarification and have a good weekend.
statistical information for traders relating to bias
(long/short) and position sizing. (from T Bowley):
VIX 20 or above:
SPX annualized return -37%
% days higher: 45%
VIX 17-20:
SPX annualized return +23%
% days higher: 51%
VIX 13 and below:
SPX annualized return +48%
% days higher: 67%
Mnuchin is incredibly composed and determined. Had the
opportunity to attend some of his cocktail parties in NYC before he
took on the role of Treasury Secretary. His apartment was quite
impressive (great art collection), and his wife (now divorced, I
believe) was undeniably elegant stunner.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
ERO - Canadian copper play
Posted by te22 on 9th of May 2024 at 01:41 pm
ERO - Canadian copper play - Druckenmiller highlighted copper yesterday (along w Argentina and Japan) as areas in which he is investing. Note ERO trades thin.
Matt, it would be great
KISS systems heads up
Posted by te22 on 3rd of May 2024 at 04:04 pm
Matt, it would be great if you would express your view on whether this trade will be one of those "whipsaws". Thanks much and have a good weekend.
Hi Matt. Below the 50SMA,
XLE nearing the 50 day MA
Posted by te22 on 1st of May 2024 at 11:55 am
Hi Matt. Below the 50SMA, the symmetry target is $91.41. Do you think that would be a reasonable bounce entry, if it gets there? if not, what levels interest you? Thanks
Mike Santoli's insight aptly depicts
Posted by te22 on 29th of Apr 2024 at 01:02 pm
Mike Santoli's insight aptly depicts the current market: 3% inflation and 4.5-5% yields aren't crippling for stocks. Concerns of a summer decline like last year aren't identical; the economy is more resilient, and the Fed is considering cuts. Market in a trading range for now.
I went long NVDA, too,
Anticipating an NVDA buy on the STS today. Well, I ...
Posted by te22 on 26th of Apr 2024 at 05:36 pm
I went long NVDA, too, after META, GOOGL and MSFT all raised capex on AI. Closed above 20, 50, 200 daily SMAs, 5 & 9 daily EMAs, and approaching 61.8% ($890.75) retrace of $756.06-$974 low/high. Notable that KISS didn't go long (unless not yet updated). Matt/Steve , your opinion on NVDA would be greatly appreciated. Thanks much,
While the current AMD stock
KISS STS systems updated
Posted by te22 on 26th of Apr 2024 at 07:47 am
While the current AMD stock price may be attractive technically, Intel's (INTC) recent earnings report signals potential headwinds. INTC reported weakness in the PC segment and softer-than-expected data center demand, excluding AI. Given the competitive landscape, it may be prudent to temper expectations for AMD's Q1 2024 results on April 30th. The PC market slowdown and muted non-AI data center demand could impact AMD's Client and Data Center segments. If you plan to take a position or add to an existing one, consider keeping some powder dry. This way, if AMD's earnings disappoint and the stock dips, you can add at more attractive levels. AMD valuation 29x next year EPS vs NVDA 28x at last night's after hours 8PM closing price. Considering NVDA AI exposure, it is arguably better positioned from end-market perspective for upcoming earnings than AMD. One other factor to note: April is one of the worst months seasonally for Semis, while May is a positive month (90%).
Anjali25, are you a seal,
Matt - Thoughts on MARA and CLSK - looking for ...
Posted by te22 on 25th of Apr 2024 at 03:44 pm
Anjali25, are you a seal, or a fisherman?
SPY QQQ 30 min w
Posted by te22 on 25th of Apr 2024 at 03:19 pm
SPY QQQ 30 min w fibs and downtrend lines
Hi Steve, Presumably the demand
SPY and QQQ Updated Views
Posted by te22 on 25th of Apr 2024 at 02:54 pm
Hi Steve, Presumably the demand zones you depicted remain valid and independent of, and into, tomorrow's PCE report. Or, perhaps since they were already "hit" this morning, not as good for sloppy seconds? Your confirmation would be appreciated.
JK
- I upgraded one of my laptops to ...
Posted by te22 on 22nd of Apr 2024 at 05:16 pm
JK
Please don't blow up my
- I upgraded one of my laptops to ...
Posted by te22 on 22nd of Apr 2024 at 05:15 pm
Please don't blow up my house. Thank you, your host (also a BP member)
Matt, For those of us
SPY 120
Posted by te22 on 22nd of Apr 2024 at 04:54 pm
Matt, For those of us who either missed the entries, or were waiting for better prices, is this the correct way to look at the average entry prices? the most favorable entry price (highlighted) coincides w top of Steve's demand zone. Thanks for the help.
VIX <50% retrace longer term
Posted by te22 on 22nd of Apr 2024 at 01:21 pm
VIX <50% retrace longer term and <38% near term
Matt, to be clear, it
VIX smashed
Posted by te22 on 5th of Apr 2024 at 02:31 pm
Matt, to be clear, it looks like the VIX top end standard 2.0 BB is 16.05, today. So if the VIX closes at 4:00pm under 16.05, one would buy the SPY after the close, anticipating an exit on the subsequent close (Monday)? Thanks in advance for the clarification and have a good weekend.
VIX
Posted by te22 on 3rd of Apr 2024 at 11:15 am
statistical information for traders relating to bias (long/short) and position sizing. (from T Bowley):
VIX 20 or above:
SPX annualized return -37%
% days higher: 45%
VIX 17-20:
SPX annualized return +23%
% days higher: 51%
VIX 13 and below:
SPX annualized return +48%
% days higher: 67%
Mnuchin is incredibly composed and
SPX - down .8% is pretty serious. Another day like ...
Posted by te22 on 2nd of Apr 2024 at 04:04 pm
Mnuchin is incredibly composed and determined. Had the opportunity to attend some of his cocktail parties in NYC before he took on the role of Treasury Secretary. His apartment was quite impressive (great art collection), and his wife (now divorced, I believe) was undeniably elegant stunner.
Matt/Steve, NVDA - is a
Posted by te22 on 27th of Mar 2024 at 09:02 am
Matt/Steve, NVDA - is a double top in, or do you reckon the 5th wave over $1,000 is still in the cards? Thanks for your help
what is the cause of
Posted by te22 on 15th of Mar 2024 at 08:09 am
what is the cause of these 25-35bp spikes in SPY/QQQ since 8:00am - (seeing on Interactive Brokers)?
Steve, what are the potential
NVDA goes red
Posted by te22 on 8th of Mar 2024 at 11:45 am
Steve, what are the potential outcomes for NVDA intraday from here in your view? Much appreciated.
Steve/Matt, It would be greatly
Follow Nancy
Posted by te22 on 4th of Mar 2024 at 04:56 pm
Steve/Matt, It would be greatly appreciated if you would provide your updated perspective on PANW, either here, or in the newsletter. Thanks much,