There are a lot of factors right now that are squeezing natural
gas supply - excessive supply. global LNG prices have been
falling, additional supply coming on stream (Russian Arctic
generating record production from Yamal). A molecule of LNG can now
be delivered from Norway to Singapore for the same price as from
Doha, and the gas quality is higher. US is poised to become
the world supplier of NG. This is a time of dynamics and
change in the NG business. The question to me is (1) what
comes of the global trade wars (2)will NG demand continue to rise
as has been widely discussed?
Interesting perspective on copper in Bloomberg this morning -
what might one best watch to track copper? I am watching CU - a
global coper index.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/bugs-joining-robots-to-overcome-global-shortage-of-copper.html
I have been watching Imperial Oil for a while. Their
weekly chart is in a significant price compression and in the
shorter time frames - has broken the descending trendline
resistance, and retreated, only to bounce up and off resistance
again. Strong repelling forces this morning on the hourly and
shorter time frames.
Just wanted to put it out there and see what others think?
I think someone mentioned it earlier, long in the experience,
short in the current work commitments. But I remain hopeful.
The energy business is important across the board.
Overall OECD demand may be waning, the markets remain for
energy products of all kinds. The Oil Service sector is
expected to see decent growth with rig counts projected to
increased YoY. Other infrastructure, pipeline and other
facilities are being built with cheaper labour markets. The
Cdn Real Estate markets didn't really even hiccup or if so
slightly. Only to coming roaring back with a vengeance.
Consumer spending continues mostly unabated as Cdn pile on
debt faster than ever before. Is anyone else spelling
b-u-b-b--l-e? Commercial real estate seems to be having some
challenges, a statement supported only by a perception of lots of
space and signage visible. The consumer general seems active
but the malls seem almost dead, and reduced and sale signs are
predominant. I think like the MSM wishes, there is talk of
the recovery and all the various indications that support that
notion. I cannot get past that the leverage-debt-credit mess
has not be reconciled, and only after that happens (and no I don't
know what that will look like - a variety of poor outcomes) will
"value" return - nature fills a void and finds a balance -
always.
gaps reflect an instance when/where price is not tested and
accepted. Every time a price of a contract is bought or sold
that is a confirmation of that particular price. When the
market "gaps" it skips over price and so the general sense is that
as some future time that price "gap" must be filled. Or at
least that is the way I look at it.
...... when you make a good trade and you manage it well, and
you exit with ... and you put it a very large profit. That is
the essence of trading. Thanks for sharing.
love your posts. and I agree with your view. simple
price action for me - trade the chart. I have come to the
place where sure more reading gives you more insight, but
may not necessarily change the certainty of the conclusion. I
also like to use the ubiquitous 80-20 rule. 20% of your
effort will generally yield 80% of your objective. It's
that last 20% of the objective that is often difficult
to fulfill and requires 80% of your effort.
@junkie - the market is based on fundamentals? I suppose
that remains true if you categorize trillions of liquidity injected
into the patient from every CB in the world as part of the market
fundamentals. Credit spreads of 1300bp! The cost of
insuring debt is pushing some sovereign risk into fall 2008 levels?
And what can we make of the numbers relating to debt:GDP,
debt:income, unemployment, productivity, capacity utilization,
rate of bankruptcy, # bank failures, collapsing CRE, ballooning CC
debt, currency chaos, asset balloons .... ??? This all
still means to me we still have some serious stall mucking to do,
but maybe not. Anything can happen.
very interesting observation. and yea, the other comments
re: BB and Obama .... where are MY meds? Shocking, though
maybe not considering all the so-called shocking things that just
continue to happen and no one pays any attention .... would that be
sleeveless or maybe it should be ... sleeveless.
Here Here .... a fabulous job in so many ways. Keep up the
great work. And agree that the updates should be at your
discretion. Excellent efforts by all!
the musical chairs analogy was in something else I read
recently. With the final question being, where's your chair?
The thing about the full moon and bottoms, my my wouldn't
that just torch things for all those that have their own bias.
I picked up my lounger in late October. Many best
wishes to all traders, may your expectations be met and
surpassed.
IDK - is that not one of those things that sure might well be
the case, but in accordance with everything we have ever learned as
trader's - know your max. risk tolerance and accept it PRIOR to
entering the trade. Is it really reasonable to see a room
fulls of otherwise realtively smart people (maybe that's the error
in this thought process?). If they were really doing
that, could they (Dubai) accept the FULL potential for this trade
to go wrong? Not saying they didn't, but that's the realm of
titanium stainless steel cajones! Would be the first time
someone decided on a risky exit to a bad trade (chugging down more
debt than you can service). Monday will be more than a little
interesting, as will the overweekend futures market action.
Trade well.
AlJazeera had a piece last night and this morning
NakedCapitalism has another. The problem could be managed
without collateral damage, or as Yves remarks, this is going to hit
the European Banks hard?
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There are a lot of
Nat Gas continues to PLUNGE, UNG dives below the bb. ...
Posted by tahoe on 29th of Nov 2019 at 11:02 am
There are a lot of factors right now that are squeezing natural gas supply - excessive supply. global LNG prices have been falling, additional supply coming on stream (Russian Arctic generating record production from Yamal). A molecule of LNG can now be delivered from Norway to Singapore for the same price as from Doha, and the gas quality is higher. US is poised to become the world supplier of NG. This is a time of dynamics and change in the NG business. The question to me is (1) what comes of the global trade wars (2)will NG demand continue to rise as has been widely discussed?
Totally agree. My vote as
SPY system update
Posted by tahoe on 2nd of Nov 2018 at 01:18 pm
Totally agree. My vote as well. Peter
Copper - what might one watch?
Posted by tahoe on 15th of Oct 2014 at 09:16 am
Interesting perspective on copper in Bloomberg this morning - what might one best watch to track copper? I am watching CU - a global coper index. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/bugs-joining-robots-to-overcome-global-shortage-of-copper.html
3min chart
Trade Idea - Long?
Posted by tahoe on 31st of Oct 2013 at 01:27 pm
weakness is continuing ... for now
charts of IMO.TO
Trade Idea - Long?
Posted by tahoe on 31st of Oct 2013 at 11:53 am
Trade Idea - Long?
Posted by tahoe on 31st of Oct 2013 at 10:29 am
I have been watching Imperial Oil for a while. Their weekly chart is in a significant price compression and in the shorter time frames - has broken the descending trendline resistance, and retreated, only to bounce up and off resistance again. Strong repelling forces this morning on the hourly and shorter time frames.
Just wanted to put it out there and see what others think?
The Patch
Still In Cash
Posted by tahoe on 14th of Feb 2010 at 11:12 pm
I think someone mentioned it earlier, long in the experience, short in the current work commitments. But I remain hopeful. The energy business is important across the board. Overall OECD demand may be waning, the markets remain for energy products of all kinds. The Oil Service sector is expected to see decent growth with rig counts projected to increased YoY. Other infrastructure, pipeline and other facilities are being built with cheaper labour markets. The Cdn Real Estate markets didn't really even hiccup or if so slightly. Only to coming roaring back with a vengeance. Consumer spending continues mostly unabated as Cdn pile on debt faster than ever before. Is anyone else spelling b-u-b-b--l-e? Commercial real estate seems to be having some challenges, a statement supported only by a perception of lots of space and signage visible. The consumer general seems active but the malls seem almost dead, and reduced and sale signs are predominant. I think like the MSM wishes, there is talk of the recovery and all the various indications that support that notion. I cannot get past that the leverage-debt-credit mess has not be reconciled, and only after that happens (and no I don't know what that will look like - a variety of poor outcomes) will "value" return - nature fills a void and finds a balance - always.
not sure if I'm right, but .....
SPX 30 min chart and video
Posted by tahoe on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 10:02 pm
gaps reflect an instance when/where price is not tested and accepted. Every time a price of a contract is bought or sold that is a confirmation of that particular price. When the market "gaps" it skips over price and so the general sense is that as some future time that price "gap" must be filled. Or at least that is the way I look at it.
so awesome
The value of stops
Posted by tahoe on 21st of Dec 2009 at 12:46 pm
...... when you make a good trade and you manage it well, and you exit with ... and you put it a very large profit. That is the essence of trading. Thanks for sharing.
simple and basic
Chart of Charts
Posted by tahoe on 20th of Dec 2009 at 08:55 am
love your posts. and I agree with your view. simple price action for me - trade the chart. I have come to the place where sure more reading gives you more insight, but may not necessarily change the certainty of the conclusion. I also like to use the ubiquitous 80-20 rule. 20% of your effort will generally yield 80% of your objective. It's that last 20% of the objective that is often difficult to fulfill and requires 80% of your effort.
@junkie - the market is based on fundamentals? I suppose that remains true if you categorize trillions of liquidity injected into the patient from every CB in the world as part of the market fundamentals. Credit spreads of 1300bp! The cost of insuring debt is pushing some sovereign risk into fall 2008 levels? And what can we make of the numbers relating to debt:GDP, debt:income, unemployment, productivity, capacity utilization, rate of bankruptcy, # bank failures, collapsing CRE, ballooning CC debt, currency chaos, asset balloons .... ??? This all still means to me we still have some serious stall mucking to do, but maybe not. Anything can happen.
Excellence building on excellence. You
BPT store and future plans
Posted by tahoe on 16th of Dec 2009 at 10:22 pm
Excellence building on excellence. You are commended on your efforts to date, and I look forward to walking these new paths into the new year.
very interesting observation. and yea,
The top is definitely in or close
Posted by tahoe on 16th of Dec 2009 at 11:28 am
very interesting observation. and yea, the other comments re: BB and Obama .... where are MY meds? Shocking, though maybe not considering all the so-called shocking things that just continue to happen and no one pays any attention .... would that be sleeveless or maybe it should be ... sleeveless.
Do you have an update of this 3rd chart?
$Gold...
Posted by tahoe on 9th of Dec 2009 at 12:07 pm
just wondering if you have updated third chart of these five charts. Just curious. thanks!
Here Here .... a fabulous
We appreciate how much work you and Steve do on this site
Posted by tahoe on 3rd of Dec 2009 at 10:40 am
Here Here .... a fabulous job in so many ways. Keep up the great work. And agree that the updates should be at your discretion. Excellent efforts by all!
the musical chairs finale?
Gold Commercials
Posted by tahoe on 30th of Nov 2009 at 08:26 pm
the musical chairs analogy was in something else I read recently. With the final question being, where's your chair? The thing about the full moon and bottoms, my my wouldn't that just torch things for all those that have their own bias. I picked up my lounger in late October. Many best wishes to all traders, may your expectations be met and surpassed.
A pretty risky bet ... ?
lol here's a conspiracy theory for you to chew on. Let's ...
Posted by tahoe on 27th of Nov 2009 at 03:40 pm
IDK - is that not one of those things that sure might well be the case, but in accordance with everything we have ever learned as trader's - know your max. risk tolerance and accept it PRIOR to entering the trade. Is it really reasonable to see a room fulls of otherwise realtively smart people (maybe that's the error in this thought process?). If they were really doing that, could they (Dubai) accept the FULL potential for this trade to go wrong? Not saying they didn't, but that's the realm of titanium stainless steel cajones! Would be the first time someone decided on a risky exit to a bad trade (chugging down more debt than you can service). Monday will be more than a little interesting, as will the overweekend futures market action. Trade well.
Hear Hear. Much agreed. Many
Early Friday Morning Market Newsletter Ok I'm going to try and get ...
Posted by tahoe on 27th of Nov 2009 at 10:02 am
Hear Hear. Much agreed. Many thanks for your continued commitment to provide timely and valuable information.
WOW ... the buy volume
I see the Bulls were Running for the Exits over the Holiday
Posted by tahoe on 27th of Nov 2009 at 09:37 am
WOW ... the buy volume on the 3min es12-09 .....
i believe its tomorrow morning
When do the markets open??
Posted by tahoe on 26th of Nov 2009 at 11:28 am
i believe its tomorrow morning for a half day?
Dubai requests moratorium on debt to negotiate
Dubai CDS spread
Posted by tahoe on 26th of Nov 2009 at 11:25 am
AlJazeera had a piece last night and this morning NakedCapitalism has another. The problem could be managed without collateral damage, or as Yves remarks, this is going to hit the European Banks hard?