love your posts. and I agree with your view. simple
price action for me - trade the chart. I have come to the
place where sure more reading gives you more insight, but
may not necessarily change the certainty of the conclusion. I
also like to use the ubiquitous 80-20 rule. 20% of your
effort will generally yield 80% of your objective. It's
that last 20% of the objective that is often difficult
to fulfill and requires 80% of your effort.
@junkie - the market is based on fundamentals? I suppose
that remains true if you categorize trillions of liquidity injected
into the patient from every CB in the world as part of the market
fundamentals. Credit spreads of 1300bp! The cost of
insuring debt is pushing some sovereign risk into fall 2008 levels?
And what can we make of the numbers relating to debt:GDP,
debt:income, unemployment, productivity, capacity utilization,
rate of bankruptcy, # bank failures, collapsing CRE, ballooning CC
debt, currency chaos, asset balloons .... ??? This all
still means to me we still have some serious stall mucking to do,
but maybe not. Anything can happen.
to tahoe: yes, I meant exactly those fundamentals, as crooked
and warped they are. The factors you listed are not all relevant to
the standard stock valuations: number of shares issued, company
revenue, earnings, % of debt, rate of sales change from one quarter
to another. The upcoming stall will come when the gravy train of
injections comes to a halt, but it is some 5 to 7 months from now
(based on what I read). Any war prospects will kill the markets
even sooner.
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simple and basic
Chart of Charts
Posted by tahoe on 20th of Dec 2009 at 08:55 am
love your posts. and I agree with your view. simple price action for me - trade the chart. I have come to the place where sure more reading gives you more insight, but may not necessarily change the certainty of the conclusion. I also like to use the ubiquitous 80-20 rule. 20% of your effort will generally yield 80% of your objective. It's that last 20% of the objective that is often difficult to fulfill and requires 80% of your effort.
@junkie - the market is based on fundamentals? I suppose that remains true if you categorize trillions of liquidity injected into the patient from every CB in the world as part of the market fundamentals. Credit spreads of 1300bp! The cost of insuring debt is pushing some sovereign risk into fall 2008 levels? And what can we make of the numbers relating to debt:GDP, debt:income, unemployment, productivity, capacity utilization, rate of bankruptcy, # bank failures, collapsing CRE, ballooning CC debt, currency chaos, asset balloons .... ??? This all still means to me we still have some serious stall mucking to do, but maybe not. Anything can happen.
I think we spent around
Posted by steveo on 20th of Dec 2009 at 02:03 pm
I think we spent around $10T in reality to get a pop of a couple hundred billion on GDP. An innefficient "investment".
to tahoe: yes, I meant
Posted by junkie on 20th of Dec 2009 at 10:52 am
to tahoe: yes, I meant exactly those fundamentals, as crooked and warped they are. The factors you listed are not all relevant to the standard stock valuations: number of shares issued, company revenue, earnings, % of debt, rate of sales change from one quarter to another. The upcoming stall will come when the gravy train of injections comes to a halt, but it is some 5 to 7 months from now (based on what I read). Any war prospects will kill the markets even sooner.