Sorry haven't been on board must this year. I'm still
sitting in cash as I want to see a CONFIRM swing short
re-test. I know its getting toppy but I want to see a Lower
High (Retrace) back up to SPX 1120-1150 area then place small swing
short on. Tough stayin cash past many months but market is
kinds just choppin around so just being very very clam and
waiting.
As for my Job - I'm in IT Outsourcing Sales Here's what
I'm seeing
# 1 Everyone is spending 2010 Project Budget on IT as fast as
they can. Budgets were pulled 2nd half of 08 and cut in 2009
therefore smart IT Leaders are spending it all now because they
have too. (18Months with Keep Lights On has caused them some
pain in delivery of service to businesses they work for.
#2 Businesses still cannot hire many people therefore
looking to outsourcing firms to do projects.
# 3 Businesses aren't getting bigger IT budgets for 2010
therefore must deliver services cheaper or cost netual.
# 4 IT firms are NOT getting Price.
# 5 Businesses are doing better on orders past 6 months.
The firms I speak with are slowly feeling better but aren't taking
much RISK as they remember 2008. There very must in a "Hope
trends holds on order book but not sure in back half of 2010"
**** The reason I post this Matt/Steve is I'm out here talking
with businesses everyday. I see what's going on therefore I do not
need to wait on the "Lagging" trend to show up. Here's What
I'm seeing and hearing from people I trust.
Housing - No sign of new starts coming back yet but stable
Mfg - Up currently but there concerned about staying power
Finance - Cost of Money now stable - There leading some but
businesses aren't getting capital expandtion loans
Small business - Cut all they can without folding and are
running to keep lights on right now. Not many new start
ups
Working Hours - People are working more hours but are doing so
at flat/down% in pay so its just a wash right now.
I think someone mentioned it earlier, long in the experience,
short in the current work commitments. But I remain hopeful.
The energy business is important across the board.
Overall OECD demand may be waning, the markets remain for
energy products of all kinds. The Oil Service sector is
expected to see decent growth with rig counts projected to
increased YoY. Other infrastructure, pipeline and other
facilities are being built with cheaper labour markets. The
Cdn Real Estate markets didn't really even hiccup or if so
slightly. Only to coming roaring back with a vengeance.
Consumer spending continues mostly unabated as Cdn pile on
debt faster than ever before. Is anyone else spelling
b-u-b-b--l-e? Commercial real estate seems to be having some
challenges, a statement supported only by a perception of lots of
space and signage visible. The consumer general seems active
but the malls seem almost dead, and reduced and sale signs are
predominant. I think like the MSM wishes, there is talk of
the recovery and all the various indications that support that
notion. I cannot get past that the leverage-debt-credit mess
has not be reconciled, and only after that happens (and no I don't
know what that will look like - a variety of poor outcomes) will
"value" return - nature fills a void and finds a balance -
always.
Hey Chris, Interesting.........
thanks! I know that confirmation you are reffering to. I am looking
forward to a down move but, I hate how much 2010 feels like
2004.
CSPIRIT has put up a really good post on what he's seeing in his
business. I thought it might be interesting if others posted what
they're seeing wherever they live or work. So I'll chime in and
hope others will to. I've found there's a lot to learn from
anecdotal information. I'm particularly interested in hearing from
BPT members in various parts of the world.
I live in West Los Angeles, a pretty upscale neighborhood. What
I'm seeing is small businesses continuing to close, and those that
aren't closing are continuing to struggle -- restaurants, clothing
stores, just about anything retail, especially the mid to high end,
is still in big trouble here.
I've got a lot of friends who are IT professionals, and the
market is awful. One friend who has a web design company that's
been turning away business for ten years is barely eking out a
living now. I have two other friends who have gone form very good
jobs at Fortune 100 companies to out-of-work and not finding
it.
My doctor friends are finding that they are making a lot less
money. A combination of lowered reimbursement rates and patients
putting off anything that isn't critical.
Residential Real Estate has not come back at all. This is
probably one of the better areas in the country (coastal SoCal) and
it is dead. Very few transactions. I see a lot of houses that had
For Sale signs now hanging For Rent signs. Which means shadow
inventory is continuing to build.
Commercial Real Estate is terrible -- rents are being slashed
left and right for offices and apartment rentals, and it's
continuing to get worse.
Tourism -- way down.
Hollywood (studios, agencies, etc.) are still laying off people
and cutting back. Maybe that will improve a little going forward
because of a few hit movies, but it's too early to say -- They are
still slashing staff and cutting back wherever they can.
California is a basket case. I don't know how much of what I'm
seeing here is California specific, but since we're supposed to be
1/7 of the economy, this can't be good.
Posted by biketastic on 15th of Feb 2010 at 10:07 am
I talk to companies in a range of market sectors.
Today, the VP at a high end luxury boat builder told me
that their planning expects a double-dip recession.
An industrial supplier I work for is doing very well, even
though their competitors are going to the wall. The reason is
that they are "resilient" and smart. Resilience comes from
low overheads, owning their industrial unit and cash
balances. They are smart because they are way ahead of
competitors with a web presence and are selling throughout the
Eurozone where the GBP has been weak.
Public sector organisations by contrast think life if hard but,
believe me, b b b b baby they ain't seen nothing yet.
Still In Cash
Posted by cspirit on 14th of Feb 2010 at 10:20 am
Hi Steve/Matt.Tom -
Sorry haven't been on board must this year. I'm still sitting in cash as I want to see a CONFIRM swing short re-test. I know its getting toppy but I want to see a Lower High (Retrace) back up to SPX 1120-1150 area then place small swing short on. Tough stayin cash past many months but market is kinds just choppin around so just being very very clam and waiting.
As for my Job - I'm in IT Outsourcing Sales Here's what I'm seeing
# 1 Everyone is spending 2010 Project Budget on IT as fast as they can. Budgets were pulled 2nd half of 08 and cut in 2009 therefore smart IT Leaders are spending it all now because they have too. (18Months with Keep Lights On has caused them some pain in delivery of service to businesses they work for.
#2 Businesses still cannot hire many people therefore looking to outsourcing firms to do projects.
# 3 Businesses aren't getting bigger IT budgets for 2010 therefore must deliver services cheaper or cost netual.
# 4 IT firms are NOT getting Price.
# 5 Businesses are doing better on orders past 6 months. The firms I speak with are slowly feeling better but aren't taking much RISK as they remember 2008. There very must in a "Hope trends holds on order book but not sure in back half of 2010"
**** The reason I post this Matt/Steve is I'm out here talking with businesses everyday. I see what's going on therefore I do not need to wait on the "Lagging" trend to show up. Here's What I'm seeing and hearing from people I trust.
Housing - No sign of new starts coming back yet but stable
Mfg - Up currently but there concerned about staying power
Finance - Cost of Money now stable - There leading some but businesses aren't getting capital expandtion loans
Small business - Cut all they can without folding and are running to keep lights on right now. Not many new start ups
Working Hours - People are working more hours but are doing so at flat/down% in pay so its just a wash right now.
The Patch
Posted by tahoe on 14th of Feb 2010 at 11:12 pm
I think someone mentioned it earlier, long in the experience, short in the current work commitments. But I remain hopeful. The energy business is important across the board. Overall OECD demand may be waning, the markets remain for energy products of all kinds. The Oil Service sector is expected to see decent growth with rig counts projected to increased YoY. Other infrastructure, pipeline and other facilities are being built with cheaper labour markets. The Cdn Real Estate markets didn't really even hiccup or if so slightly. Only to coming roaring back with a vengeance. Consumer spending continues mostly unabated as Cdn pile on debt faster than ever before. Is anyone else spelling b-u-b-b--l-e? Commercial real estate seems to be having some challenges, a statement supported only by a perception of lots of space and signage visible. The consumer general seems active but the malls seem almost dead, and reduced and sale signs are predominant. I think like the MSM wishes, there is talk of the recovery and all the various indications that support that notion. I cannot get past that the leverage-debt-credit mess has not be reconciled, and only after that happens (and no I don't know what that will look like - a variety of poor outcomes) will "value" return - nature fills a void and finds a balance - always.
Hey Chris, Interesting......... thanks! I know
Posted by cal1 on 14th of Feb 2010 at 05:35 pm
Hey Chris, Interesting......... thanks! I know that confirmation you are reffering to. I am looking forward to a down move but, I hate how much 2010 feels like 2004.
check out 1974 - it's
Posted by sobrien on 14th of Feb 2010 at 08:06 pm
check out 1974 - it's almost a mirror image
CSPIRIT has put up a
Posted by puma on 14th of Feb 2010 at 05:18 pm
CSPIRIT has put up a really good post on what he's seeing in his business. I thought it might be interesting if others posted what they're seeing wherever they live or work. So I'll chime in and hope others will to. I've found there's a lot to learn from anecdotal information. I'm particularly interested in hearing from BPT members in various parts of the world.
I live in West Los Angeles, a pretty upscale neighborhood. What I'm seeing is small businesses continuing to close, and those that aren't closing are continuing to struggle -- restaurants, clothing stores, just about anything retail, especially the mid to high end, is still in big trouble here.
I've got a lot of friends who are IT professionals, and the market is awful. One friend who has a web design company that's been turning away business for ten years is barely eking out a living now. I have two other friends who have gone form very good jobs at Fortune 100 companies to out-of-work and not finding it.
My doctor friends are finding that they are making a lot less money. A combination of lowered reimbursement rates and patients putting off anything that isn't critical.
Residential Real Estate has not come back at all. This is probably one of the better areas in the country (coastal SoCal) and it is dead. Very few transactions. I see a lot of houses that had For Sale signs now hanging For Rent signs. Which means shadow inventory is continuing to build.
Commercial Real Estate is terrible -- rents are being slashed left and right for offices and apartment rentals, and it's continuing to get worse.
Tourism -- way down.
Hollywood (studios, agencies, etc.) are still laying off people and cutting back. Maybe that will improve a little going forward because of a few hit movies, but it's too early to say -- They are still slashing staff and cutting back wherever they can.
California is a basket case. I don't know how much of what I'm seeing here is California specific, but since we're supposed to be 1/7 of the economy, this can't be good.
Again, would love to hear from others.
a view from the UK
Posted by biketastic on 15th of Feb 2010 at 10:07 am
I talk to companies in a range of market sectors.
Today, the VP at a high end luxury boat builder told me that their planning expects a double-dip recession.
An industrial supplier I work for is doing very well, even though their competitors are going to the wall. The reason is that they are "resilient" and smart. Resilience comes from low overheads, owning their industrial unit and cash balances. They are smart because they are way ahead of competitors with a web presence and are selling throughout the Eurozone where the GBP has been weak.
Public sector organisations by contrast think life if hard but, believe me, b b b b baby they ain't seen nothing yet.
Still in Cash
Posted by mdundon on 14th of Feb 2010 at 02:16 pm
Hello CSpirit,
I agree with you whole heartedly! I think I will look for part time contract work myself in 2010.
Cheers, Mary Ann