A strong move should be expected soon. 

If Vale is breaking out - copper should have a high probability of doing the same. Could be a bull flag in copper last 6 months or so. 

Hi Matt/Steve!

Stock indices are showing signs of topping out today in the daily time frame. There are divergences in daily, weekly and monthly also. One example is the DAX which has a hanging man candle today. Can you please comment?

Also - oil appears to have tested the trendline/neckline from March 2016 from below - roughly coinciding with the 50EMA. It could develop into a powerful downturn. 

If the 2015-2017 period is viewed as a tilted IHS in the DAX - then we have reached the measured move in the DAX now. Which has also produced a potential double top in those same years.

http://schrts.co/rjPVqG

Some agricultural commodities look like they might wanna go significantly higher from here.

Harvard Review about finance and data mining - might interest some of you who are quant oriented.

Link to the article

Link to article

The DAX might be completing a 5 wave since the summer and/or fall (different time frames count)

Looks like cocoa futures might have bottomed this week - they've been down since last summer. 

Hi Matt, 

please specify an emailaddress that we can write to - and I'm sure a bunch of us will do that. Also add this info to the newsletter email text and actual content, so more people can react. 

Best regards

Chris

Link to article

Thorp, a sprightly 84-year-old, is uniquely placed to judge. A mathematical prodigy, he worked out how to “beat the dealer” at blackjack while a postdoctoral student at MIT. 
His Princeton Newport Partners fund, set up in 1969, is recognised as the first  quant hedge fund  (one that uses algorithms). Over 18 years it turned $1.4m into $273m, compounding at more than double the rate of the S&P 500 without suffering so much as one quarter with a loss. Thorp’s then revolutionary use of mathematics, options-pricing and computers gave him a huge advantage.

As far as I can tell from my charts - the VIX futures haven't had this low a reading ever. The VIX index has been lower a few times though. Stuff can always get stretched - but I would assess the current readings to be reasonable entry points for closing longs and opening shorts. 

What's your take on ORIG from here? Looks like a shooting star in CL/WTI - and stochastics are stretched. Down from here looks most likely to me. Though if oil continues up, this one will follow of course. 

PM stocks look kind of interesting here

Possible bottoming action in 30 year UST today in the dailies. Maybe a retrace to the 160's somewhere is in the cards.

Yes, it is interesting. 

How do your system stats compare to the Magellan, Matt? If you are able to get more than half of what they achieve, I would say that's awesome, given the level and resources of the competition. 

Renaissance quants

There are definitely problems in DB (Deutsche Bank) now. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-28/germany-working-contingency-plan-deutsche-bank-lender-sells-unit-shore-liquidity

http://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2016-09/deutsche-bank-rettungsplan-finanzaufsichtsbehoerde

I agree on the potential bearish GDX set up. But If you look at silver futures - the decline for the last two months looks like a plausible bull flag. The volume and oscillators look healthy for now.